Front Page Picks (Mon., Aug 4)

[Willie Bee]

Boston Red Sox -110 to crown Kansas City Royals and Meche

Game Time: 08/04/2008 08:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

It’s not often that you can get the Red Sox at a cheap price like this vs. a team like the Royals, and Gil Meche has actually not been that great this year. Go Red Sox.

Now, we concede that the Kansas City Royals have the edge in starting pitching over the Boston Red Sox tonight, but face it, this is still the Red Sox vs. the Royals and we feel compelled to play Boston at this seemingly bargain price.

Besides, Gil Meche has been somewhat of a disappointment for Kansas City, sitting at just 9-9 with a 4.16 ERA. He has just 106 strikeouts in 140.2 innings while at the same time being a fly ball pitcher, a dangerous combination vs. a powerful Red Sox lineup. Also, do not forget that the Royals have not had much of a home field advantage, going just 26-30 in their own stadium, so Red Sox Nation should be well represented in the stands.

Now Clay Buchholz has not shown much this season for Boston, but remember he is still the same pitcher that tossed a no-hitter last year, so it is not as if he has no ability. Also, the Royals are batting just .244 vs. right-handed pitching the last 10 games as opposed to a whopping .344 vs. lefties, and the Kansas City lineup has never faced Buchholz before.

Aside from the starters, the Red Sox are better in every other phase of the game and they get the call at this cheap number.

Free Pick: Red Sox -110

[Willie Bee]

Take Twins -123 at Seattle Mariners

Game Time: 08/04/2008 10:10 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

After all the hard work to get to the top of the AL Central, the Twins don't want to lose it by dropping games to the lowly Mariners. Make your play on Minnesota tonight in Seattle.

Minnesota begins its road trip back in first place in the American League Central and does not want to lose that top spot while playing the worst team in the American League.

The Twins climbed in front by winning five of their seven games during their recent homestand. They are 7-2 over their last nine games overall and they are a solid 11-9 over their last 20 road games. They remain under .500 on the road for the season but they face the team with the worst home record in baseball.

Seattle is just 21-34 at Safeco Field this year and those 34 losses are already one more than they had the entire season last year. The Mariners dropped two of three to the Orioles over the weekend and are a dreadful 7-17 over their last 24 games including a record of 2-8 at home. During this 24-game stretch, the offense has not been able to find any consistency, scoring three runs or fewer in exactly half of those games. The Mariners are 1-7 in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

The Twins send Glen Perkins to the mound in hopes of him bouncing back off two rough outings. He allowed nine runs in 12 innings against the Yankees and White Sox but it should be nothing to be concerned about. Prior to that, he had allowed three runs or fewer in eight straight starts and 12 of his first 14 on the season. His ERA is inflated due to only four bad outings. He finished July going 4-1 with a 3.98 ERA and that shows how good his other three starts were. Seattle is 11-22 against lefty starters on the season.

The Mariners go with Miguel Batista and it is surprising that this guy is still on a major league roster. He has a 6.43 ERA on the season which isn’t the worst in baseball but it is certainly near the bottom. He is actually coming off back-to-back decent starts, including a quality outing last time out, but I am not convinced he has turned anything around. Both of those starts came on the road and that makes sense as his home ERA is a putrid 8.26 in eight starts. Seattle is just 2-8 in his 10 nighttime starts on the season. Play Minnesota for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Twins -123

[Willie Bee]

Cincinnati Reds +112 vs. Brewers

Game Time: 08/04/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

The lines are still providing value on Bronson Arroyo despite his solid numbers at home in Cincinnati. The Reds are the play tonight when they host the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers open a three-game series in the Queen City tonight when Bronson Arroyo matches serves with Manny Parra.

A quick check of ERA's shows Parra's 4.50 ERA on the road to be nearly a full run worse than at home while Arroyo's home ERA in more than 3.5 runs better than his road ERA this season.

With Arroyo back in commanding KW form with one walk and 14 strikeouts in his last three starts, look for him to improve to 10-5 at home in August here this evening.

Free Pick: Reds +112

[Willie Bee]

Red Sox -107 at Kansas City Royals

Game Time: 08/04/2008 08:10 PM -
By: Steve Merril | 10starpicks.com

Boston's Clay Buchholz hasn't followed up on his rookie campaign as many expected, but he should still overmatch the Royals tonight when the Red Sox travel to Kansas City.

Boston’s Clay Buchholz is a talented prospect who is better than his 5.94 ERA and 1.68 WHIP would seem to indicate. His season numbers are skewed by two terrible outings in early May right before he went on the disabled list. Buchholz performed well once he returned from the DL with nine starts at AAA Pawtucket where he sported a 2.47 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a 43-17 strikeout/walk ratio.

Buchholz also had a 2.44 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 24 minor league games last year with a powerful 171-35 strikeout/walk ratio, along with a solid 1.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 4 big league appearances. He has struggled in his past four major league starts, but he should improve as the season progresses and my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing for Buchholz tonight against a below average Kansas City offensive squad.

Meanwhile, my pitcher performance ratings predict a correction for the Royals' Gil Meche who is due for a return to the norm after three strong starts in a row. Keep in mind Meche had a mediocre 4.64 ERA and just a 9-11 SU team record in his first 20 starts this season, before the recent success.

Free Pick: Red Sox -107

[Willie Bee]

Twins -127 sink Seattle Mariners

Game Time: 08/04/2008 10:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Minnesota has won their last three series, going 7-2 in that span, and have taken the lead in the AL Central. Look for the Twins to cash again tonight on the road at the Seattle Mariners.

Our Monday night MLB selection is on the Minnesota Twins on the road at Safeco Field over the Seattle Mariners.

Things are looking up for the Twins. Sure, their division rivals, the White Sox, might have picked up future Hall-of-Famer Ken Griffey Jr. from the Reds at the trade deadline last week while the Twins sat tight and didn't make any moves. But this team has plenty of reasons to be optimistic and feel good about their chances.

First, on Sunday afternoon we could hear a giant sigh of relief coming from the Twin Cities as left-hander Francisco Liriano made his long-awaited return to the Twins rotation a very successful one as the 24-year-old threw six shutout innings at home against the Indians. Secondly, with that victory the Twins have now taken their third consecutive series (all against division teams) and have a 7-3 record during that time.

Finally, as if all of that weren't good enough, Minnesota now gets to go into Seattle and play the worst team in the league for three games, followed by a three-game series in Kansas City against the Royals.

Safeco Field has been a very friendly place for Minnesota, as they are 6-1 in the last seven games there. Take the Twins.

Free Pick: Twins -127

[Willie Bee]

Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants Under 7

Game Time: 08/04/2008 10:15 PM -
By: Ron Raymond | phoenixsports.com

Atlanta and San Francisco have been struggling to score, combining for just 13 runs in their three weekend games. The Under is the way to play the Braves, Giants tilt.

Today’s MLB pick is the Under 7.0 (-120) in the game between the Atlanta Braves and the San Francisco Giants.

Being a numbers handicapper, I have a nice little trend on the Under in this game this evening, as the Under is 8-2-0 for the Atlanta Braves when they played as a +100 to +120 road underdog during a night game this year.

Furthermore, here’s a nice baseball system that has hit 69% of the time since 1997. Whenever you have a home team as a favorite and they are in one of these current situations:

• Vs league opponent;
• After a division game;
• First game of a series;
• Coming off a three-run loss;
• Coming off loss vs. right-handed pitcher;
• Scored one run or less in the last game;

The Under is 11-5-1 for the home favorite in this spot since ’97.

Free Pick: Braves-Giants Under 7 (-125)

[Willie Bee]

Dog Indians with Lee +115 vs. Rays

Game Time: 08/04/2008 07:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

It is hard to pass up Cliff Lee as an underdog at any time, given his 14-2 record and impressive 2.58 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Matt Garza was roughed up by the Indians last time, so take the Tribe as dogs.

With all due respect to Matt Garza of the Tampa Bay Rays, we simply cannot pass up Cliff Lee of the Cleveland Indians as an underdog in this spot.

Lee is the current favorite to win the American League Cy Young Award, sitting at 14-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 146.2 innings. He tossed six scoreless innings while allowing only five hits in his first start vs. Tampa Bay this year, and he is facing a Rays lineup here that is batting a woeful .210 vs. left-handed pitching the last 10 games.

Now granted Garza has allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts. However, it should be pointed out that the two non-quality efforts both came within his last four starts, suggesting that he is starting to wear down a bit. Even more importantly, the worst of those efforts came vs. these Indians in Cleveland, where he was torched for seven earned runs and 11 hits in just five innings.

While we do expect an improved effort from Garza at home tonight, we will still go with the bona fide Cy Young favorite as a dog.

Free Pick: Indians +115

[Willie Bee]

NY Yankees -162 at Texas Rangers

Game Time: 08/04/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Rangers have historically struggled against the Yankees, and that makes it an easy play tonight when Joba Chamberlain takes the mound for New York in Texas.

The Yankees' bats came alive yesterday as they beat the Angels in New York for the second straight day.

New York is 9-3 in their last 12 games as a favorite. The Yankees are 14-3 in their last 17 games as a favorite. After a tough start, Joba Chamberlain has won his last three starts and the Yankees are 8-3 when he takes the mound.

The Rangers are coming off another series win but they face a team they really struggle against. The Rangers are 6-21 in the last 27 meetings between the clubs. New York is 29-10 in their last 39 trips to Texas. Play on New York.

Free Pick: Yankees -162

[Willie Bee]

Indians +113 at Tampa Bay Rays

Game Time: 08/04/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Tom Stryker | 10starpicks.com

Tampa Bay caught a break yesterday when Detroit's relievers melted at the end, but that won't happen tonight when Cliff Lee and the Cleveland Indians silence the Rays' hitters.

Tampa Bay got a nice gift yesterday when Detroit's relievers failed to close the Rays out. Off that lucky victory, Tampa's struggling offense will find things very difficult against one of the American League's best left-handed arms.

In his last start at home versus Detroit, Cliff Lee got pounded for six earned runs and 10 hits in only five innings of work. That was easily his worst performance of the season. Still, the southpaw out of the University of Arkansas has been awesome on foreign soil all season long. As a guest, Cliff has been nicked for 25 earned runs and 79 hits in 83.2 frames. That equates to a solid 8-2 record and a respectable 2.69 ERA.

Lee has already mastered this soft Tampa Bay lineup, too. Back on July 11, Cliff pitched a goose egg against the Rays allowing no earned runs and five hits in six innings of work.

The history book certainly favors the Tribe in this contest as well. Cleveland has cashed 47 of their last 66 in this series, and with Lee on the bump, the Tribe has cashed 15 of their last 21. The price is definitely right here men. Take Cleveland with Lee.

Free Pick: Indians +113