Monday Value Plays

[fifawcs]

I went 1-0 Yesterday +2.42 Units.

Orioles +182
Pros: The O's are my dog play of the day. Sarfate is a much better pitcher than people think. Joe Saunders is worse at home and has struggled versus the Orioles this season with a 5.40 ERA and a .367 BAA. While Saunders has gotten wins against the O's, these wins have come because of the offense behind him. At +185 odds, I think this is worth putting a unit on.

Cons: The Angels are arguably the best team in baseball.

2*Royals +100
Pros: Many of you may think I am crazy for fading the reigning World Champion Red Sox. It isn't such a bad idea when they send Clay Buchholz to the mound. Buchholz has been atrocious on the road with a 7.97 ERA and an 0-4 record. Even though the Royals will be missing Miguel Olivo today after yesterday's altercation, I think the Royal's offense will be fired up. They should be happy having Gil Meche on the mound. The Royals have won eight of the right-hander's last nine starts, and he is 6-1 with a 2.78 ERA in that span. Meche limited Oakland to two runs while fanning eight over seven innings in 5-2 road victory on Tuesday. He is 4-2 with a 3.69 ERA in eight lifetime starts against them, but suffered a tough loss in Boston on May 20 after he gave up two runs and struck out eight over seven innings of a 2-1 defeat. Take the better pitcher at plus money.

Cons: The Red Sox are a very good team.

For those of you who are interested in trends:
# Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
# Red Sox are 1-4 in Buchholzs last 5 starts on grass.
# Red Sox are 1-4 in Buchholzs last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
# Red Sox are 1-4 in Buchholzs last 5 starts as a favorite.
# Red Sox are 1-5 in Buchholzs last 6 starts.
# Red Sox are 1-5 in Buchholzs last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
# Red Sox are 1-7 in Buchholzs last 8 road starts.
# Royals are 4-0 in Meches last 4 starts as an underdog.
# Royals are 5-0 in Meches last 5 starts.
# Royals are 4-0 in Meches last 4 starts on grass.
# Royals are 4-0 in Meches last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
# Royals are 4-0 in Meches last 4 home starts.
# Royals are 4-1 in Meches last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
# Royals are 6-1 in their last 7 games on grass.
# Royals are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
# Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
# Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
# Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
# Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
# Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win.

[ryanXL977]

sarfate is good? come on fifa

[ryanXL977]

i am liking oak as a god today.
i think they are equal to toronto

[Mike Rose]

Loving your thinking with Baltimore tonight fifa. The Halos just wrapped up a prolonged 10-game road trip that started against these same O's in Camden Yards. In their six meetings this season, the Halos have been the victor in four. That said; three of those wins came by a run. With their poor effort in the Bronx yesterday, and the fact that they have to travel cross-country against a team that's already one the west coast, i like the O's chaces here.

Sarfate's a mystery to the Halos line-up, while the O's offense excells against south-paws (.273 BA / .454 SLUG %) and they've hit Saunders well the two times they've faced him this season (18 hits, 7 ER's in just 11.2 innings combined).

i'll be throwing a unit on Bal on the $-line and on the run-line just in case they suffer another one-run defeat....

BOL!!!

[fifawcs]

Thanks Mike Rose. And Ryan, just because Sarfate doesn't have a 2.00 ERA doesn't mean he isn't good. The guy has a power fastball and has yet to give up a run to the Angels in 4.2 innings of relief. Also, the Orioles have the number 12 bullpen in the majors while LAA is 16 after yesterday's fiasco in the bronx. Aubrey Huff, who is on my fantasy team, is on fire. He's batting .588 this past week. Markakis is also on fire. I'm telling you, the O's are a good play.

Also, Oakland is a crap play. They are the absolute worst offense in the AL. While Toronto's offense isn't great either, at least they are at home and have Halladay on the mound.

[ryanXL977]

allright, well i hope you hit it
i am all over oak and minne today, those are my two picks

[fifawcs]

I hope you hit yours as well since I am not on either of those. But if you were to lose, here's why:

Oakland/Toronto: Gallagher is good, but that guy is no Roy Halladay. I wouldn't bet even the best of offenses against Halladay. Do you really want to have your money on one of the worst offenses in the majors against a Cy Young Candidate? I smell a no hitter.

Twins/Seattle: Seattle is bad, but they do hit the southpaws well. That and home field advantage are why your Twins play is far from a lock. The Twins are 23-28 on the road this season. Obviously, they are much better at home. Batista is a gas can, but the fact that he only yielded 3 runs to the powerful Texas offense makes me wonder if he has turned around his act.

[ryanXL977]

halladay has 8 losses, so it aint like he wins every start
and you like to use past performace vs ateam as a guide, even though i feel that is no way to cap a game

halladay is slightly above .500 vs oak, and oak beats toronot in toronto almost every time they play

SEATTLE DOES NOT HIT SOUTHPAWS WELL, why do you always say that

[ryanXL977]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6134

halladay is 5-4 with a 4.90 era vs oak lifetime

[fifawcs]

That statistic gives us something to work with. However, I do not use that stat alone. You have to think about the kinds of teams that the stat applies to. The A's organization is one that changes dramatically year to year. They are constantly trading away their star players and this year all of their good offensive players are on the DL.

As a team, Seattle hits .280 versus left handed pitchers.

[ryanXL977]

but richie sexson is gone, so that lowers the number probably at least 5-10 pts
oakland has not dealt a single star player in a long time, if ever. unless you are referring to pitchers. they didnt deal giambi or tejada, they let them walk.

[Wilforth]

"Red Sox are 1-7 in Buchholzs last 8 road starts.
# Royals are 4-0 in Meches last 4 starts as an underdog.
# Royals are 5-0 in Meches last 5 starts."

Thanks, fifawcs.
The Royals are the play here. The Red Sox are overrated on the road.

[ryanXL977]

oakland has won 8 in a row in toronto as well
i mean, those are stats you use no?

[fifawcs]

I already adjusted the BA for Richie Sexson. It was .285 before he left. Oakland has traded many guys away. This year's team looks a lot different than past years. I am not saying you are wrong. I am saying that if the A's do lose, then those would be the reasons why. The good news is, the A's swept their last two series in toronto.

When I was talking about stars, I meant people who could hit, not necessarily Giambis or Tejadas. Like Mark Kotsay and Nick Swisher.

[ryanXL977]

oh, thats true, they did deal kotsay and swish, my two fave a's
doggone it
i still think oak is the play here if you are gonna play the game

and i like minne tonite, and i know you like seattle and hate minne
but i did say 2 months ago minne will win that division, and nobody believed me
but they will fifa, they will!

[fifawcs]

Minn wont win the division. But good luck on tonight's game. Batista sucks. I am staying away from both sides in the Oakland game. One thing that is on your side is the fact that Oakland is really due for a win. And Toronto's offense isn't exactly stellar.

[ryanXL977]

minne will win that division, chisox suck , no speed at all.
minne is gonna do it, you will see. they get liriano back and he is better than anyone on the chisox staff, by a mile

[fifawcs]

Minn's entire team revolves around two players, Morneau and Mauer. The White Sox have a balanced offense. Dye, Quentin, Swisher, Pierzynski, Konerko, Thome, Ramirez, Crede, and even Orlando Cabrera can all come up with the big hit. Liriano and Baker are the only good pitchers on the Minn team. Perkins, Slowey, and Livan are not so great.

[ryanXL977]

minne has cuddyer back in a few days, and has gomez and span who can run like the wind,

konerko is done, pierzynski is no better than kubel, livan was released by minne, crede is hurt.

punto is no worse than orlando cabrera

and swisher has done nothing

so basically chisox revolve around dye and thome, who are both streaky

[fifawcs]

Your argument would be good if any of what you just said were true. Pierzynski is much better than Kubel. I would much rather have Orlando Cabrera than Punto. Punto is only good for his defense. Gomez and Span can run, but they aren't nearly as good at hitting.

I used Konerko as an example to prove that in clutch situations the guy can come through. You also forgot about Carlos Quentin, who is leading the AL in home runs.

[ryanXL977]

how is pierzynksi better than kubel? pierzynski isnt much to write home about, very little power, kubel has twice as many hrs

span is hitting over 300 by the way
quentin is good, so are morneau and mauer
they also have the best closer in baseball and are the best managed team in baseball

[fifawcs]

That's ur opinion. The White Sox pen is ranked 6, Minnesota is 14. Pierzynski is a catcher who is batting close to .300. While Mauer is better than him, having an offensive catcher in the MLB is a valuable asset. Or at least it is more valuable than a .260 hitting DH.

[BadBeatBodog]

Meche: 4.24 xFIP
Buchholz: 3.88 xFIP

Everyone at TheRX and most touts are all over KC. Boston it is.

[ryanXL977]

pierznyski isnt close to the catcher or player mauer is
and we havent mentioned delmon young
minne has a better offense, better pithcing, and a better closer.

[fifawcs]

I'm going to close this argument by saying this:

There is no sense in arguing since it isn't accomplishing anything. We will see who is right come october.

[ryanXL977]

yup