Sunday Value Plays

[fifawcs]

I went 0-1 -2.00 Units yesterday after the Red's pen blew it for me in the 7th.

2*Astros +121
Pros: Wolf is 10-5 with a 3.35 ERA in his career versus the Mets. Oliver perez has an 8.07 ERA versus teams that are below .500. He gave up 7 runs in 5.2 innings in his only start in minute maid park. And the Stros kill lefties at home. For those of you who are into trends, check some of these out.

# Mets are 1-4 in Perezs last 5 starts as a road favorite.
# Mets are 1-5 in Perezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
# Mets are 0-4 in Perezs last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
# Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
# Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
# Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
# Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
# Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.

Cons: The Astros can suck sometimes.

[unde0087]

Some more Cons:

You left out the fact that since the end of June in his last 6 starts Perez owns the MLB's best ERA at 1.36 and he is 2-1 lifetime against the Astros with a 2.76 ERA and 39 K's, although he hasn't faced them since 2006

Yes, he had a tough start but he is pitching as good as any pitcher in the majors in the last month winning 4 of his last 5.

[unde0087]

good luck to you, we will see what happens today, most likely another Met bullpen explosion

[fifawcs]

I didn't consider those Perez stats you listed as cons since they are irrelevant in this situation. A pitcher's history versus a team is more indicative of future performance than any streak they are on. That's why Wolf won today.