Very, very good value prop

[Cicima6709]

I dont usually post props here, but when i do, they usually win. I also dont normally take such high juice, unless there is tremendous value.

5dimes offers Furcal not to get an RBI at -185. The guy's line over the season should be -350. Over the last 50 games, it should be -400. And over the last 25 games, it should be -525. Those are the odds you would have had to bet to break even on this bet.

Furcal has RBI'd in 2 games these playoffs, putting this bet at 15-2 during the playoffs. Iv been on it almost every game, and im going hard on it today. I suggest you guys do the same. It is -185, but will hit -250 in a few hours.

BTW, im not calling this bet a lock. There is no such thing as a lock. However, it is excellent value, and has a much, much higher chance of hitting then the -185 line suggests.

[fergie's balls]

-195 already

[Cicima6709]

Its now at -215, but will keep going up a bit IMO.

[fergie's balls]

i don't usually play these. is normal that $100 max on 5 dimes? or max is per player/account balance?

[Cicima6709]

max depends on acct.

At first, i believe the max. is $500...but i believe once you get good at props, they will limit you to $50, so you have get creative, or have nice friends

But if you have never bet props before, you should be able to bet $500/prop i believe...props are the way to go, simple math shows that a lot of 5dimes lines are completely off (such as the one above), and you get an unreal edge compared to other bets (such as betting on the winner of a game, you barely have an edge there). Iv seen props that were listed as +170 that i thought should have been -130...lots of lazy/soft lines in their prop section.

[fergie's balls]

not sure why i was maxed at $100...anyway looks good...lineups out, Furcal dropped to 7 spot. let's hit it. i also drank juice for no run first inning...went back game by game, only 1 out of last 10 did Harrison cough up 1st inning run (his last start vs Cards), so liking his bounce back to 0. no worry with Carp in first.

[Cicima6709]

Im a tad bit more worried bout this prop now that he is 7th. I guess i should have waited til the lineups, but i knew the prop would get juiced way up. Hes been first all year, so i had no reason to believe that would change. Obivously still love the -185 proce (Beltres prop was -175, and hes got 3x the RBIs that Furcal does)...but no doubt i am a lot more nervous now that he has Pujols/Berkman/Freese/Molina in front of him to get into scoring position.

I did also end up taking Furcal gets no runs, because that prop was based on him being first and being driven in by those guys, but now that has a lot of value with the hitters behind him sucking.

Interesting prop you took. I like that. I have a small bet on Harrison not allowing a HR. The last 75% of the season, hes been the best pitcher in the league at allowing HRs. He did allow one to Craig in his last start, but that was like his first HR in 7 or so starts (off the top of my head, # might be different, but its around there). I also think he gets yanked early as the Rangers are going to be extra careful and use a lot of pitchers today. So i like that play too.

[Cicima6709]

Im sorry man, to lose on a HBP sucks. I feel shitty that the one time i posted this prop, it lost, while its gone 17-3 during the playoffs and i didnt post it before. Feels shitty. I knew it was rough when he went from 1st to 7th, meh.

Im going to end up 5-4 on props, but will be down half a unit or so due to this juice. I hope you made up for this prop with other wins!

Sorry guys.

[Brett]

Thanks for the tip on the no run scored, i hit it once you said he moved to 7th

[Cicima6709]

Thanks for the tip on the no run scored, i hit it once you said he moved to 7th