August System Plays

[smitch124]

Final July results:

46-39-1 +1.01 units

There are gonna be several system tweaks, unforunately I'm still not done analyzing the data. When its all done, system plays will vary from 0.5 units to 5 units. Run Lines on some favorites are also being added. I haven't completely decided the criteria for them, yet I'm using 2 of them tonight, go figure.

Aug 1st

2* Los Angeles Angels -108
1* Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+145)
2* Minnesota Twins -153
1* Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+120)
2* Cincinnati Reds -101
1* Cle/Min over 9 (-110)

[smitch124]

Aug 1st: 3-3 +1.08 units

August 2nd

2* Milwaukee Brewers -178

[smitch124]

Aug 2nd: 1-0 +2.00 units
August: 4-3 +3.08 units

Aug 3rd

No qualifying plays today

[smitch124]

Aug 4th

1* Was/Col under 9.5 (-110)

[smitch124]

Aug 4th: 0-1 -1.1 units
Aug: 4-4 +1.98

Aug 5th:

2.5* New York Mets -158
1* New York Mets -1.5 (+130)

1.5* Minnesota Twins -140
.5* Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+115)

4.5* Chicago White Sox -139
2* Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+140)

1* Pitts/Ari Over 8.5 (-120)

[Hellerud]

gl man cash em!

[smitch124]

Thanks, Appreciate it Hellerud...

Aug 5th: 3-4 +5.00 units
Aug: 7-8 +6.98 units

August 6th

3.5* Los Angeles Dodgers -125
1.5* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+125)

1.5* Houston Astros +159

1* Was/Col over 9.5 (-120)
1* Atl/SF over 7 (-120)

I'm trying to hang in there with the totals, I think this system has potential with them. They are about .500 (- money) since mid-May starting Aug, and are 0-4 so far in August, gonna stick with them for now, may drop them to 0.5 units soon.

[B1GER1C828]

how does ur system work?

[smitch124]

Well, it uses alot of stats that are thrown into a formula I've created that generates an expected score. Today for example the formula (which uses OPS against as the main pitcher stat) generated the following final score:

Los Angeles Dodgers: 5.49
St. Louis Cardinals: 3.65

That is enough of an advantage at -125 for it to be considered a play.

The total of the 2 ratings 9.14 fall within the range of the vegas total of 8.5 so the total is no play.

In August I've added other criteria (the size of the advantage relative to the line, whether there is a significant advantage on both the hitting and pitching sides of the formula, and the given line of the team that is the play) that decide the magniude of the play. The system is still being developed, but I am betting it as a work in progress....

[smitch124]

August 6th: 0-4 (one rainout) -8.58 units
August: 7-12 -1.6 units

August 8th

1* SD/NYM over 7.5 (-120)

will add later...

[smitch124]

August 8th adding....

0.5* Florida Marlins +190

will add later...

[smitch124]

August 8th adding...

3.5* Washington Nationals (Game 1) +183
3* Colorado Rockies (Game 2) -220
1* NYY/Tex under 11.5 (-125)

[smitch124]

All the above plays are for August 7th not 8th...

[smitch124]

August 7th: 4-1 +2.76 units
August: 11-13 +1.16 units

Ausgust 8th

2* Washington Nationals +265
1* Seattle Mariners +162
0.5* Atlanta Braves +108

[smitch124]

August 8th: 1-2 -2.46 units
August: 12-15 -130 units

August 9th

3.5* Los Angeles Dodgers -140
2* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+112)

1* Washington Nationals +220

[fifawcs]

Kuroda sucks on the road.

[smitch124]

Thanks fifa, yes Kuroda's road OPS against was a significant factor in the system calculations, the overall matchup still came up as a play on the Dodgers at -140.

August 9th: 0-3 -7.9 units
August: 12-18 -9.20 units

August 10:

0.5* Hou/Cin over 9 (-105)

may add later...

[smitch124]

August 10 adding....

0.5* Minnesota Twins +105

amy add later...

[smitch124]

August 10 adding...

4* Los Angeles Angels -118
2* Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+165)

may add later...

[smitch124]

August 10 adding...

0.5* St. Louis Cardinals +130

thats all for today

[smitch124]

August 10th: 2-3 +1.50 units
August: 14-21 -7.70 units

August 11th

No Qualifying Plays

[smitch124]

August 12th

3* Colorado Rockies -124
2* Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+160)
1* Mil/SD over 8 (-115)
1* Phi/LAD over 7 (-120)

[smitch124]

August 12th: 0-3-1 -6.87 units
August: 14-24-1 -14.57 units

August 13th

2.5* Milwaukee Brewers -193
1* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-122)

[fifawcs]

Padres are the play. Brewers are due for a loss and Banks seem like the most likely of pitchers to deliver the final blow. They are huge underdogs at home.

[ryanXL977]

SD IS 30 games belowe 500
they are 10 below 500 at home

the line is where it should be

but i would not TOUCH milw with a ten foot polish dude

[smitch124]

Hard to argue with either of you given the systems performance this month, but it chooses the games objectively...

so as long as I'm going with it I will play what it generates.

[smitch124]

August 13th: 2-0 +3.50 units
August: 16-24-1 -11.07 units

August 14th

No Qualifying plays

[smitch124]

August 15

4.5* Chicago Cubs -130
2* Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+120)

1.5* Cleveland Indians -140
.5 Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+150)

1* LAA/Cle over 8 (-120)

[smitch124]

August 15th: 2-3 +2.30 units
August: 18-27-1 -8.77 units

August 16th

1* LAA/Cle over 8.5 (-115)

may add later...

[smitch124]

August 16th adding

1* Chicago Cubs -103
0.5 Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+150)

1* TB/Tex under 11.5 (-110)

[smitch124]

August 16th: 1-3 -1.68 units
August: 19-30-1 -10.45 units

August 17th

1* LAA/Cle over 8.5 (-125)
1* Tor/Bos over 8.5 (+100)

may add later...

[smitch124]

August 17th adding...

1.5* Philadelphia Phillies -193
0.5* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-125)

That's all for today

[smitch124]

August 17th: 2-2 +0.63 units
August: 21-32-1 -9.82 units

August 18th

1* Tampa Bay Rays -114
0.5* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+165)

[smitch124]

August 18th: 2-0 +1.83 units
August: 23-32-1 -7.99 units

August 19th

3* Los Angeles Dodgers -149
1.5* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+150)

1* Detroit -110
0.5* Detroit -1.5 (+135)

0.5* San Diego Padres +177

1* Det/Tex under 11 (-115)
1* Sea/CWS over 9 (-125)

[smitch124]

August 19th: 2-5 -7.19 units
August: 25-37-1 -15.18 units

August 20th

2.5* San Diego Padres +143

2.5* Baltimore Orioles +117

2.5* Tampa Bay Rays -118
1.5* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+170)

1* NYY/Tor under 9.5 (-125)
1* Fla/SFG over 7.5 (-110)