Thursday picks ( 237-154 +55.51 )

gregm · 10-20-11, 01:41 AM

I just realized that I messed that record up after posting in my hockey thread and counting those numbers , it should be 237-154 +54.51. It is late and I have had a couple of beers.

GGZOLA · 10-20-11, 05:24 PM

would love 2 hear reasoning for over given how cold and windy it was last night, fukked me big time

gregm · 10-20-11, 05:33 PM

I kept expecting the Rangers to break it open last night and they never seemed to break through. I have a small Rangers future but with the idiotic all star game advantage of home field for the Cardinals, the Rangers need to win this one. I read a stat this morning, the last 10 teams to win game 1 of the world series went on to win the title.

I really thought the Rangers were going to break out last night in the seventh and I am still confused with Ron Washington putting in Esteban Germán to pinch hit with runners on first and third and two out in the seventh. Every stat I look at in my spreadsheets tells me to take Texas tonight, but I just dont put alot of faith in these numbers when you are talking about the pressure of pitching in the world series.

The only way I see Texas losing this series is pitching and tonight they send Colby Lewis to the mound, Lewis looked great last year ont eh playoffs going 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in 2010 and while hasnt looked as sharp in this years playoffs, he is still 4-1 in postseason play. He doesnt give up a ton of walk and he has been much better against right handed hitters than lefties, but he does tend to get the ball up at times and does get alot of flyballs which could be dangerous with this cardinals bunch. The weather does look windy but this could be a major problem for him tonight if he cant keep the ball down.

I see a ton of people on texas on the boards and alot of people mention they think Garcia could get into trouble. Barring a 3 run shot or some major breakdown , my reaction to is so what if garcia gets in trouble. If he does get in trouble Larussa will yank him and he will be off as fast a brides nightie on wedding night, capping these starting pitchers is almost pointless in these series compared to capping the regular season.

I like Garcias numbers and he does tend to keep the ball down and get alot more ground balls than Lewis. His numbers at home have been phenomenal, He has a 2.41 career ERA at Busch, and overall this year was 9-4 with a 2.55 ERA at home, and had a 1.11 WHIP. He has good cutter, a great change up and I think he is going to give the Rangers alot of problems. If he does succumb to world series pressure, he won't be in there long, Texas is one of the best teams in baseball against lefties.

Texas hasnt lost back to games since august, and this lineup is just too powerful to keep down long. I like the over in this one , I just wish the weather were better with the wind and the cold and we do have a umpire with strong under numbers,Greg Gibson is behind the catcher tonight and the under was 21-9 this season with Gibson behind the plate.This is giving us a great number on the over and I just dont see these two teams not hitting 8 in this, the Rangers dominate lefties.

Another unit on over 7.5 -118 risk 1.18

5dimes Props

TEX scores 3 runs first / no team 3 runs -175 risk 1.75

A.Beltre total bases -140 risk 1.4
Y.Molina total bases

N.Cruz total bases -135 risk 1.35
M.Holliday total bases

C.Lewis strikeouts -210 risk 2.10 Gracia may not last more than a few innings at the first sign of trouble.
J.Garcia strikeouts

I dont have time for write ups for the rest of these, I like this arizona game the best.

CFB

Arizona -4 -130 risk 2.6

3 team 10 point teaser

Central florida -6.5 Clemson -.5 kansas state -.5 -115 risk 1.15

NHL

Blackhawks -140 risk 1.4

Canucks -5. (reg time) -113 risk 1.13

Rangers +100 risk 1

Bruins -5. -117 risk 3.51