Texas @ Detroit Under 3.5 first 5 innings
I am fairly confident that this is the way to go here. I really like the under 7 through the game, but I think this is the safer pick. A couple reasons:
1) Verlander is going for the Tigers in an elimination game at home. The Tiger's whole season rests on his arm and I think you see him come out with an inspired effort. His stats look good: the Rangers as a team are hitting .198 against him in their careers. This year he has an ERA of 2.40 and a WHIP of 0.92 to go with his 25 wins on the year. His splits look good too. He has an ERA of 1.78 in day games this year, and has an ERA of 2.0 against the Rangers this season. There have been questions about fatigue with Verlander, but I think that is a non issue with his team on the verge of elimination. I see him throwing 120+ tonight.
2) Elimination game = conservative managers, small ball, and great pressure on the offense. Look for both teams (especially Texas) to try and gain an edge with small ball throughout this game. Any time you play small ball you end up giving up at bats. And in this case you would be giving up at bats to get base runners in scoring position for hitters that haven't had great success against the opposing pitchers (point 3). Look for both managers to play it close to the vest here putting the pressure on the offense to break through against some tough pitching.
3) The major offensive players in the game tonight have struggled against the other teams' starters. Miguel Cabrera (.250), Victor Martinez (.176), Brandon Inge (.200), Johnny Peralta (.071), and Delmon Young (.200) have all struggled against C.J. Wilson. And Ian Kinsler (.167), Michael Young (.234), Mike Napoli (.200), Nelson Cruz (.111), and Elvis Andrus (.091) have all struggled against Verlander. The only batters that have enjoyed success are the Rangers' Josh Hamilton (.364), who hits .104 points less during the day than he does at night, and Adrian Beltre (.281).
4) C.J. Wilson had a good season with a 2.94 ERA, finishing with a strong 1.21 ERA in the month of September. His splits look good here with a 2.31 ERA on the road and a 2.71 ERA in day games. Also, right handed batters (the majority of Detroit's offensive weapons) are hitting a measly .227 against him. There are a few things about Wilson that scare me: he has struggled in the playoffs thus far and also had one bad start against Detroit earlier this season. That being said, he is a very talented pitcher and I see him in a good spot for a bounce back on the road and pitching during the day in a elimination game.
5) Stadium factors are in our favor. The park is very large and the wind is blowing in at 8 m.p.h. This should make it easier to keep the ball in the ballpark for our two starters. Also, the umpire has a slight lean to the under.
6) Now the main reason that I like this instead of the under 7 for the total. I am confident that Verlander will have a studly game, and I believe that Wilson will pitch well as well. The thing that scares me about the total for 9 innings is the Detroit bullpen. They already start with a disadvantage in the bullpen and tonight they are going without two of their setup men tonight. If the Rangers are able to chase Verlander and get to the bullpen then this one could go way over the posted total. I feel like the safer option is to take Verlander's first 5 innings rather than banking on Verlander going a complete game, or worse the Detroit bullpen. The one risk with going this way is C.J. Wilson. He has shown over his past few starts that he is capable of giving up runs. However, I am giving him a lean because of the reasons mentioned earlier.
Thoughts?
I am fairly confident that this is the way to go here. I really like the under 7 through the game, but I think this is the safer pick. A couple reasons:
1) Verlander is going for the Tigers in an elimination game at home. The Tiger's whole season rests on his arm and I think you see him come out with an inspired effort. His stats look good: the Rangers as a team are hitting .198 against him in their careers. This year he has an ERA of 2.40 and a WHIP of 0.92 to go with his 25 wins on the year. His splits look good too. He has an ERA of 1.78 in day games this year, and has an ERA of 2.0 against the Rangers this season. There have been questions about fatigue with Verlander, but I think that is a non issue with his team on the verge of elimination. I see him throwing 120+ tonight.
2) Elimination game = conservative managers, small ball, and great pressure on the offense. Look for both teams (especially Texas) to try and gain an edge with small ball throughout this game. Any time you play small ball you end up giving up at bats. And in this case you would be giving up at bats to get base runners in scoring position for hitters that haven't had great success against the opposing pitchers (point 3). Look for both managers to play it close to the vest here putting the pressure on the offense to break through against some tough pitching.
3) The major offensive players in the game tonight have struggled against the other teams' starters. Miguel Cabrera (.250), Victor Martinez (.176), Brandon Inge (.200), Johnny Peralta (.071), and Delmon Young (.200) have all struggled against C.J. Wilson. And Ian Kinsler (.167), Michael Young (.234), Mike Napoli (.200), Nelson Cruz (.111), and Elvis Andrus (.091) have all struggled against Verlander. The only batters that have enjoyed success are the Rangers' Josh Hamilton (.364), who hits .104 points less during the day than he does at night, and Adrian Beltre (.281).
4) C.J. Wilson had a good season with a 2.94 ERA, finishing with a strong 1.21 ERA in the month of September. His splits look good here with a 2.31 ERA on the road and a 2.71 ERA in day games. Also, right handed batters (the majority of Detroit's offensive weapons) are hitting a measly .227 against him. There are a few things about Wilson that scare me: he has struggled in the playoffs thus far and also had one bad start against Detroit earlier this season. That being said, he is a very talented pitcher and I see him in a good spot for a bounce back on the road and pitching during the day in a elimination game.
5) Stadium factors are in our favor. The park is very large and the wind is blowing in at 8 m.p.h. This should make it easier to keep the ball in the ballpark for our two starters. Also, the umpire has a slight lean to the under.
6) Now the main reason that I like this instead of the under 7 for the total. I am confident that Verlander will have a studly game, and I believe that Wilson will pitch well as well. The thing that scares me about the total for 9 innings is the Detroit bullpen. They already start with a disadvantage in the bullpen and tonight they are going without two of their setup men tonight. If the Rangers are able to chase Verlander and get to the bullpen then this one could go way over the posted total. I feel like the safer option is to take Verlander's first 5 innings rather than banking on Verlander going a complete game, or worse the Detroit bullpen. The one risk with going this way is C.J. Wilson. He has shown over his past few starts that he is capable of giving up runs. However, I am giving him a lean because of the reasons mentioned earlier.
Thoughts?
