Albert Pujols props for Wednesday

[TucsonTom]

Hey all,

I'm looking really hard at two prop lines for Albert Pujols tonight:

1) Over 2.5 hits, runs, RBIs (+105)

Breaking down the stats this looks to have a huge lean in favor of Pujols. Pujols has a career .545 BA vs Gallardo (6 of 11 with 3 HRs and 7 RBIs). He is also hitting .414 in the playoffs this year (12 of 29 with 5 runs scored and 6 RBIs) and is coming off a monster game where he went 4 for 5 with 3 runs scored and 5 RBIs. Now he is coming home where he has hit .042 points higher than on the road this season and .074 points higher at night compared to day games. My only worry is that the Brewers might intentionally walk him a lot tonight to try and mitigate his impact on the outcome.

2) More hits, runs, and RBIs than Ryan Braun (-130)

While I just laid out the favorable stats for Pujols, Braun's are considerably less impressive. He has a career .227 BA vs Carpenter (5 of 22 with 1 HR and 2 RBIs). He is batting .036 points lower on the road than at home and .079 points lower at night than during the day. He has a lifetime BA of .225 against the Cardinals and .152 at Busch Stadium. All of that being said, he is having a stellar postseason hitting .500 with 7 runs scored and 8 RBIs and he does have a career BA of .414 in the postseason.


Like I said, I am really considering both of these plays, but I wanted to get some input from everybody (especially on the intentional walk angle). What do you think?

[JT OZ]

With the way he was swinging the bat the other night I say go for it, looking over to see if my book is offering something similar for me to take.

[TucsonTom]

Both of those lines are at Bodog.

I'm also leaning to the Cardinals to win tonight for many reasons (a few of them being Gallardo only having 1 win in 11 starts against them and being 1-4 in his career at Busch). But I'm not sure if there is value in the line...

[Regul8er]

No value with the Cards....it has to be pass or Brew Crew!

[TucsonTom]

Agreed Regul8or, I have to pass on the side in this game.

As for my Pujols stats earlier, I was mistaken. I posted his season stats against Gallardo as his career stats. His season stats are still potent and everything else is correct. Here are his career stats against Gallardo: .444 BA (12 of 27) with 4 HRs and 11 RBIs. Still a very solid line!

Also, here is an article by ESPN about Pujols' success against Gallardo and in the playoffs:

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/28441/pujols-fastball-success-limits-gallardo

[face]

nice heads up. bodog has good props, always forget about them

[Jago2008]

Yeah the 1 prop is a great bet IMHO, I put out some stats yesterday about Pujols against Gallardo and they're ridiculous. I don't have them all with me, but its something like 8-11, with 7 RBIs and 8 runs... Berkman has fared well, and so has John Freese, particularly at home.

[TucsonTom]

I saw those too Jago. I still feel most confident about the Pujols prop, though.

Just laid bet #1 for 1 unit, may go for more later depending on how the line moves. Also still thinking pretty hard about #2...

Date placed:
Oct 12, 2011 2:32pSingle #227280500 (Placed by Web)Baseball - MLB Player Props (Prop) Total
(MIL vs STL) - Total Hits, Runs and RBI's - Albert Pujols (STL)
Must start for action. Game must go 8.5 innings.
(8014) Over vs. (8015) Under Over 2½ (+105) Wed@6:05p

[Blazermaniac]

When a player is really hot the last game...team will game plan this time around. So, chances are he'll have one hit, one rbi or 2 hits and no rbi...leaving you screaming for that third one. Either way...BOL.

[Blazermaniac]

You'll see a lot of fouls and fly balls.

[TucsonTom]

I agree with you Blazer. Milwaukee and Gallardo will try to pitch him differently or handle him in a different way, but his prior stats against Gallardo, at home, and in the playoffs are working in my favor here. Gallardo is a fastball pitcher and Pujols obliterates the fast ball (see ESPN article). Also, teams game plan around him all of the time and he still hits at or over .300 every year. I'm just hoping that they pitch to him and don't intentionally walk him. If they do throw to him, then I feel confident in this pick. Thanks for the well wishes!

[TucsonTom]

Lots of line movement towards Pujols here. Over 2.5 hits, runs, RBIs was at +105, now at -115 at Bodog.

[BernardMadoff]

Yeah the 1 prop is a great bet IMHO, I put out some stats yesterday about Pujols against Gallardo and they're ridiculous. I don't have them all with me, but its something like 8-11, with 7 RBIs and 8 runs... Berkman has fared well, and so has John Freese, particularly at home.

He's had 27 at-bats against Gallardo.

[TucsonTom]

Yes. For his career Pujols is 12 of 27 (.444) with 4 HRs and 11 RBIs against Gallardo.

[moses millsap]

brewers may pitch around him all night, be careful

[SageModeYi]

Nice call bro!

[SageModeYi]

The Machine made it easy today. Hit in the 1st inning

[jtorre28]

tailed you congrats

[BernardMadoff]

Quick and easy.

[TucsonTom]

Wow, I just got home. That was easy tonight! What happened to this pitcher's duel everyone was expecting?

[TucsonTom]

Pujols is up 4-1 on Braun right now. Keep it rolling Pujols!

[Jago2008]

Nice cash bro. I can't believe my RL didn't hit after being up 4-0 in the 1st inning only to have it finish @ 4-3 . That is a great win tho - reminds me of the ridiculous Jordy Nelson over 3 1/2 catches and +60 yards prop bet in last year's Superbowl. I wish I had hit this line hard when it was +105. Time to remove the dust from my old Bodog accnt. I use BetOnline.com and their props are nothing compared to Bodog.com.

[Ca$hfloW]

I had a similar cards bet that cashed 1st inning (cards TT over 3.5). Its nice being on the right side of one of these bets for a change. Congrats.