Who I like tomorrow; thoughts?

[BadBeatBodog]

Min
Min/Cle O
Bal
Tex
NYY
Ari
Pit
Was TT U (not out yet but I'm guessing it'll be 3.5 based on the 7.5 over/under)

What do you all think?

[ryanXL977]

yes on minne, tex,az,nyy

love em

[accuscoresucks]

sorry bud not one of those plays caught my eye


gl

[BadBeatBodog]

No worries accuscore I think I cap games diff than most people anyway. GL2u as well

Glad to see you agree ryan.

[ryanXL977]

i like marlins for the helluva it too

[BadBeatBodog]

I don't really see value in the Marlins just because they are 200+. Harden is an absolute stud and his split-finger is going to eat the Fish alive. I'm guessing the total doesn't end up at nine but it's there now on Matchbook so assuming it doesn't change I would pound Marlins TT U.

[ryanXL977]

and harden has ZERO wins so far for the cubs and wont pitch past the 6th bc he is on seriously strict pitch counts bc of his history
that line is way too high

[BadBeatBodog]

It's high but the Cubs are the best team in the NL with arguably the best pitcher going. Even if he goes six the Cubs have a good pen. I don't see the justification in betting a game just because the odds are so high.

[ryanXL977]

cubs have no kerry wood and i dont think they have a good pen, thats just not true
now , if you dont think harden gives up runs, fair enough
but the cubs with no wood have an average or even below average pen

[BadBeatBodog]

Without Wood the pen is still above average IMO. If Florida's TT is at four I am going to pound the under.

[ryanXL977]

why do you think cubs pen is good without wood? howry is bad. marmol is a head case who cannot close without incident

if you are betting solely on harden thats a lot to lay vs a good team who is in a division race
makes no sense to me and i am on florida as i was today

but that team total may work. it wont be 4, it will be 3.5 max

[jtuck]

Florida line is way too high, but i cant bet against harden, especially the way the fish are hitting righties (.216) in their last ten. No play

[BadBeatBodog]

Their pen's WPA is fourth in the NL. It's the team's weakest link but still above average.

[BadBeatBodog]

Florida has been HORRIBLE the past two weeks (.633 OPS) but crushes righties this year (.779 OPS).

[jtuck]

Their stats this year vs. righties are good, but when i cap a game i look more into what a team or player has done recently. Just a difference of strategies, BOL with whatever you play.

[BadBeatBodog]

I hear ya jtuck. Florida is very good vs. righties and away from Dolphin stadium this year but the offense is in a huge funk and I would not bet on them to break out vs. Harden, so I'm going against my philosophy a little bit in taking their team total under. But we'll see if I actually end up taking it tomorrow.

[BadBeatBodog]

Here's what I ended up doing, not going to add any more plays:

RR w/ 2's, 3's, 4's
Bal, Min, Min/Cle O, KC = 7u/1u

RR w/ 2's, 3's, 4's
Ari, Pit, NYY, Tex = 7.13u/1u

GL everyone

[BadBeatBodog]

Pit took it hard and messed up one of the RR's; still was ~+0.7u for the day. I should have listened to ryan and taken FLA but I chose KC last minute instead. Should've listened to myself for that matter and taken WAS TT u because my initial eight in the first post went 6-2.

hope you all killed it