Front Page Picks (Wed., Jul 23)

Willie Bee · 07-23-08, 10:59 AM

Play Oakland Athletics & Tampa Bay Rays Under 7½

Game Time: 07/23/2008 12:40 PM -
By: Ron Raymond | phoenixsports.com

This pitching matchup, pitting Oakland's Greg Smith opposite Tampa Bay's James Shields, puts the Under to the strong advantage. The A's and Rays stay Under today.

Any time a team gets outclassed in their past game, teams with a winning record fall in my “line value” category. Let’s face it, when the Kansas City Royals get beat by eight runs or more, the perception is they are just a bad team and have been in this position more times then a team with a winning record.

Therefore, I don’t put as much value in the Royals to win their next game as I would a team with a winning record like the Rays. Sure there’s line value in backing up a team like the Royals after a bad lost, but that’s about it.

Looking at today’s action, the Rays lost by seven runs last night vs. the A’s and when a home team loses by seven runs in their last game this season, they are 15-6 SU in their next game. However, I feel there’s more value in betting the under 7½ posted total this afternoon for several reasons.

The Rays have seen the Under go to 11-2-0 when they are a home favorite vs. left-handed pitchers this season.

It’s getaway day for both clubs, as the Rays travel to KC after this game and the A’s return home for a series with the Rangers. Look for both team to get out of dodge quickly.

Nice pitching duel this afternoon with Greg Smith for the A's facing James Shields of Tampa, and the Under is 14-3-0 when Smith toes the rubber for Oakland this season.

Free Pick: Athletics-Rays Under 7½ (-115)

Willie Bee · 07-23-08, 11:00 AM

White Sox -115 over Texas Rangers

Game Time: 07/23/2008 02:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Clayton Richard is one of the most highly regarded prospects in baseball, and he appears to be in position to win his major league debut today. With Kevin Millwood a shell of what he was, take Chicago.

Now we are not in the habit of playing on first time starters are favorites, but Clayton Richard of the Chicago White Sox has the tools to be something special, and he gets the call at a reasonable price over the Texas Rangers this afternoon.

Richard was one of the starting pitchers in the All-Star Futures Game at Yankee Stadium during the All-Star break, and for very good reason. He was a perfect 6-0 in six starts after getting promoted to AAA, and most impressive was his 29/4 strikeout to walk ratio. It certainly helps that Richard has a first place team behind him and that he has the support of an excellent White Sox bullpen that owns a collective 3.25 ERA.

Texas starter Kevin Millwood may be approaching the end of the line. He is 6-6, but with a high 5.23 ERA and 1.72 WHIP this season, and he has gone five consecutive outings without recording a Quality Start. Perhaps worst of all is that he has allowed 30 hits in 16.2 innings over his last three starts.

In this battle between a pitcher with a great future and a veteran that has seen better days, we look for youth to prevail.

Free Pick: White Sox -115

Willie Bee · 07-23-08, 11:01 AM

Houston Astros -123 to launch against Snell, Pirates

Game Time: 07/23/2008 02:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Ian Snell has been terrible on the road this eason with a bloated 7.71 ERA. Back Brian Moehler and the Astros at home Wednesday afternoon against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

After opening the season on a strong note with three straight wins, Pittsburgh's Ian Snell has fallen on hard times, dropping eight of his last 10 team starts.

That's what happens to pitchers who sport a 7.71 ERA on the road. That's almost four runs worse than his home ERA (3.86) this season. With Snell 2-5 with a 6.94 ERA in day games and Brian Moehler 5-2 with a 3.24 home ERA this season, look for the Astros to come up shooting here this afternoon.

Free Pick: Astros -123

Willie Bee · 07-23-08, 11:03 AM

Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays Over 8 at Camden

Game Time: 07/23/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

With 14 of the last 17 games between Toronto and Baltimore shooting above the total, the Over is the play tonight when the Orioles host the Blue Jays at Camden Yards.

The Toronto Blue Jays have played the Over in four straight and the Over is a profitable 8-3 in their last 11 games.

The Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games as an underdog and 6-2 in their last eight road games. The Over is 12-3 in their last 15 divisional games.

The Over is 5-1 in the Orioles' last six games and 21-7-1 in their last 29 games overall. The Over is 7-1-1 in Baltimore's last nine divisional games and 6-1 in their last seven home games.

The Over is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings between the clubs. Play the Over.

Free Pick: Blue Jays-Orioles Over 8 (-120)

Willie Bee · 07-23-08, 11:04 AM

St. Louis Cardinals +110 rock Sabathia and Brewers

Game Time: 07/23/2008 08:15 PM -
By: Bread | sbrforum.com

Bringing C.C. Sabathia on board in a recent trade has paid dividends for the Brewers so far, but the St. Louis Cardinals will end that little honeymoon tonight at home.

Can anyone take the NL Central from the Cubbies? Which team will make an early second half move for the NL Wild Card spot? Wednesday night’s matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers (-130) and St Louis Cardinals (+110) will affect both of these scenarios. At least for this night, look for the Cards to take out the upstart Brewers.

I understand that everyone is high on this Milwaukee team right now, especially after the C.C. Sabathia acquisition. Sabathia has been fantastic since joining the Brewers (3-0, 1.88 ERA). He even clubbed a key homer against Cincinnati in his second start to help gain the win. Welcome to the NL, C.C.

So naturally, anyone in their right mind would be taking the Brew Crew for Sabathia’s fourth start, right? Not me. Much like another C.C. having a late resurgence in his career, C.C. DeVille of Poison, I’m not quite so impressed yet.

Poison was actually in town last night. All the local rock stations have been talking about these guys like the original Beatles were performing. How quickly people forget. In a decade that was horrible for music already, Poison made the 80’s their very own litter box. They made bands like Tesla and Winger seem credible by comparison. What the heck is an ‘Unskinny Bop’ anyway? Just dreadful.

Enter the age of exploitive reality shows for celebrity has-beens. Hooray! First DeVille offered up his cardboard personality for all to see on 'The Surreal Life.' Then Poison’s lead singer, Bret Michaels, hit it big with his 'Rock of Love' dating show. Some of the worst television ever created, but for some reason, I can’t stop watching!

Now comes the inevitable tour. While I can revel in watching the hot chicks in Poison make fools of themselves on TV, I certainly am not going to believe that all of a sudden this is a real band am I? I understand there is a lot of hype going on right now with all the exposure and TV success, but won’t we all look back in 20 years and agree that Poison never really had a resurgence? That their music was just as awful from year one to year thirty? I think we will.

This brings me back to C.C. Sabathia. They were considered dark horses before acquiring him this year, with sportsbooks having them as the sixth highest favorite to win the NL in the preseason (+1010). Currently they have the third best odds to win the pennant (+525). This isn’t all due to C.C. Milwaukee has put together a nice season thus far. And I understand how his masterful debut has upped the hype machine tenfold, but I certainly am not going to believe that all of a sudden this is a brand new Sabathia, am I? Nah, probably not.

While in no way am I comparing Sabathia’s highlights to DeVille’s horrendous resume, I’m just not as impressed as some people. With a losing record and ERA near four, it could be said that C.C. was as much to blame as anyone else for Cleveland’s poor season. Then with his two losses to Boston in last year’s ALCS, he has yet to prove he can dominate in a big game when he is really needed. With or without him, I wouldn’t take this Brewers team over Philadelphia or St Louis, nevermind the Cubs and Mets. It’s just not their time. Not yet.

Take the Cards (+110) as a slight home underdog, or this could be one of those "Things That Make You Go Hmmm."

Willie Bee · 07-23-08, 11:06 AM

Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees Under 9½ in the Bronx

Game Time: 07/23/2008 01:05 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | phoenixsports.com

Both of today's hurlers, Minnesota's Glen Perkins and Mike Mussina for New York, are in good shape to keep today's Twins, Yankees contest in the Bronx low-scoring.

I'm playing the Under in today's battle between Minnesota's Glen Perkins and New York's Mike Mussina.

Both starters are in great situations. Perkins owns a sparkling 2.77 ERA in road day starts this season, while Mussina has helped his squad to a 4-1 mark, sporting a 3.00 ERA in five home day outings. Mussina has been outstanding over his last nine outings overall, with a 45-to-7 strikeout to walk ratio, to go along with a 2.64 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He's been even better in his last 10 home starts, and he absolutely owns the Twins, with a 21-6 mark in 30 lifetimes starts.

The Pinstripers have played to the Under in 61 percent of their home games this season, and the Twins are just 2-7 in road day outings against right-handers, scoring just 2.9 runs per game. This one has low-scoring battle written all over it. I'm playing the Twins and Yanks to play to the Under on Wednesday.

Free Pick: Twins-Yankees Under 9½ (-120)

Willie Bee · 07-23-08, 11:07 AM

Lackey and Laffey keep Indians and Angels Under 8

Game Time: 07/23/2008 03:35 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The last 14 contests between the Indians and Angels have seen the Under cash at an 11-3 rate. Play it that way today in Anaheim when Cleveland the Halos close their set.

Our Wednesday afternoon MLB selection is on the Cleveland Indians and Los Angeles Angels remaining under the total in Anaheim.

This game will mark the 13th straight contest between these two teams that has been played in Anaheim. While this is a bit unusual, it has not always been a bad thing for Cleveland as the series has been very even during this time with the Angels having only a two-game advantage, 7-5. Los Angeles has to be feeling pretty good after its three-game sweep of its biggest American League rivals, the Boston Red Sox, to begin the post All-Star second half. The Angels now have the best record in the Majors, and are the first team in baseball to reach 60 wins this season.

With the trade of ace C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland has effectively thrown in the towel for the season, but oddly enough the Tribe finds itself riding a hot streak having gone 7-4 in their last 11 games.

Ace John Lackey gets the start for the Angels and the Under is 6-2 in Lackey's last eight starts vs. Cleveland, and 11-3 in the last 14 games between these two teams overall. Take the Under.

Free Pick: Indians-Angels Under 8 (-120)

Willie Bee · 07-23-08, 11:08 AM

Astros -130 to avoid Pirates broom

Game Time: 07/23/2008 02:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

After dropping the first two games of this set, the Astros look to avoid the sweep today against the Pirates. Hang with Houston at home when they take on Pittsburgh's Ian Snell.

This is a very good price for the Astros who look to grab the series finale at home in Houston before the off day on Thursday and a big weekend series at Milwaukee beginning Friday.

It may well be over already for Houston but the next 17 days will determine that with a majority of those games against division teams. The Astros are right at .500 at home and despite the recent offensive slowdown, they are hitting .275 at home on the season. The difference in home/road records is 7.5 games.

The Pirates continue to have their road struggles as they are 17-32 on the season away from home and the problems are a combination of both hitting and pitching. Pittsburgh is hitting .257 on the road while the ERA is a horrendous 6.38 which is easily the worst in all of baseball. The Bucs have allowed five runs or more four times on this roadtrip and tonight’s starting pitcher certainly does not help matters as explained later. The Pirates are 16-37 in their last 53 games as a road underdog.

Brian Moehler has been a very solid addition to the Astros rotation. Moehler continued his consistent performance last time out against the high-powered Cubs as he allowed one run, a homer, on four hits in seven innings while striking out three. It was his first quality start in his last four outings so it was definitely a big step out. He has a 3.59 ERA in seven home starts and he has allowed exactly one run in three consecutive outings. The Astros are 5-1 in Moehler’s last six home starts.

As mentioned, the Pirates road pitching has been a disaster and one reason has been the performance of Ian Snell. He has been awful away from home, going 1-6 with a 7.71 ERA in his 10 road starts. Only three of those 10 games have been quality outings and even more disturbing could be the 2.01 WHIP which is one of the worst road ratios in baseball. This has not been a profitable spot in the past as the Pirates are 5-21 in Snell’s last 26 starts as an underdog. Houston gets to him again; play the Astros for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Astros -130

Willie Bee · 07-23-08, 11:09 AM

Kansas City Royals -105 to shine against Detroit Tigers

Game Time: 07/23/2008 02:10 PM -
By: Ben Burns | covers.com

The Royals have made money in day games for their backers while the Tigers have cost bettors cash in day tilts. It's an easy decision to back Kansas City against Detroit.

It's true that the Tigers have the better record. However, that's been largely due to their success when playing during the evening, not during the afternoon.

Indeed, the Royals have been the much more profitable team during the afternoon. The Royals have gone 18-17 (+5.9) when playing during the day, while the Tigers have gone a money-burning 17-21 (-9.3) when they have done so. While the Tigers have the much bigger names in their lineup, they've only hit .249 when playing during the afternoon, averaging a mere 3.7 runs in those games. Conversely, KC has hit a relatively healthy .271 when playing during the afternoon, averaging 4.5 runs in those games.

Armando Galarraga has been solid for the Tigers and he's admittedly pitched well on the road and during the afternoon. That being said, he hasn't received much run support lately and the Tigers are 0-3 his last three starts. Facing the Royals 'ace,' he's unlikely to get much run support this afternoon either.

Zack Greinke has allowed roughly one less run per game when pitching during the afternoon than he has during the evening. In six daytime starts, he's gone 3-2 with a 3.16 ERA, holding opposing hitters to a .243 average. He's also been much better at home than he has been on the road. In fact, he's 3-0 with an excellent 2.39 ERA and 1.122 WHIP at home and the Royals were a sizzling 6-1 in those games, most recently a 4-1 win vs. the White Sox.

Dating back to last season the Royals are now 9-2 in Greinke's last 11 home starts. They're also 4-1 in his five career home starts vs. Detroit. Consider a play on KC.

Free Pick: Royals -105

Willie Bee · 07-23-08, 11:10 AM

LA Dodgers -115 with Kuroda to sink Rockies on road

Game Time: 07/23/2008 03:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Kuroda was hit hard by the Rockies the first time he faced them, but he has looked unhittable at times lately and should get some revenge. Take the Dodgers.

This matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies in Denver seems like a pitching mismatch favoring the road club at a very reasonable price.

Hiroki Kuroda may have just a 5-6 record, but he has a 3.79 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 107 innings, and he has looked downright unhittable at times. Sure he is coming off of one of his worst starts of the year vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks, but Kuroda had allowed a grand total of three runs in 22.2 innings in his previous three starts, including two scoreless outings. He is looking to atone for a poor outing vs. the Rockies in LA, and we think that he gets his revenge here.

Glendon Rusch is a veteran journeyman that has survived in the majors for this long solely because he is left-handed. The fact of the matter is that he is not nearly as serviceable as he once was, as he has a 5.79 ERA and a poor 1.58 WHIP in 37.1 innings this season. He is facing a Dodgers lineup that is hitting a very respectable .282 vs. left-handed pitching on the road this season.

The Rockies have scored 10 runs in each of the first two games if this series, but they managed to lose the series opener and we do not expect another offensive explosion vs. Kuroda, so look for the Dodgers to prevail.

Free Pick: Dodgers -115