Is Carpenter at +165 worth a value play?

[Avenger]

No one is a bigger Philly fan than me.

But I'm loving Carpenter in this spot. He has an amazing 0.60 ERA and 2 wins versus Phillies this year. ALSO the biggest hitter v. Carp is Polanco. Pence has a bad record against him, so does Rollins. Polanco is a base hitter, if they can't get bigger bats against him, Phillies may have hard time scoring.

Carpenter is their "ace" if Cards are going to win a game during the series, it'll be this one.

Of course, on the opposite mound, Lee is no slouch, he's got a 1.76 ERA v. Cards. BUT Furcal and Berkman hit very well against him. Berkman sports a juicy 0.615 SLG rating. Furcal has a 0.667 OBP and a 1.667 SLG rating!

I think Cards are worth a small play here. I think UNDER is worth a look too.

Thought?

[KnowingNothing]

Carpenter the 35 year old off 3 days rest after pitching a full game? I can't see this ending well.

[ThaTopMoron]

Just bet the under if you like Carpenter. If the Phillies build up a 1-0 2-1 type lead I don't see them having any sort of big time scoring innings like in game 1. C Lee is a machine in his first playoff starts both in 09, 10... and he won't want to disappoint the fans in his 1st playoff start back as a Philly.

[HoulihansTX]

Carp will not make it past 5 innings. Cards bullpen will get too many innings for the Cards to have any chance @ winning. Under is a scary bet also, seeing how Cards bully will pobably give up 3 runs per game.

[KnowingNothing]

I wouldn't take unders. It could easily disappear pretty quickly if he loses it, just ask Lohse.

I read that he's pretty confident he can do it but he also said that he has no idea what will happen. I mean if you have no idea what will happen, how can it end well?

[Sportsbetting123]

I would lean towards the under, but I agree that the Cards are a good value play here.

[letsgo]

I wouldn't take the under, if Carpenter gets knocked out that Cards bullpen is as bad as it gets.

[benjy]

If Carpenter was on full rest I'd say there was a lot of value. There still may be some. Line currently at +172 (Pinny). If it moves much more I'll have to get some action in on the Cards, 3 days rest or not.

[dlunc3]

when is there ever value on the losing side of a bet?

[benjy]

when is there ever value on the losing side of a bet?

If it's such a sure thing offer me +500 on the Cards. I'll take it for however many points you have.

[Louisvillekid1]

value? ha, did you see how focused philly is right now... they are sweeping these clowns

[TheMoneyShot]

I don't like Carpenter pitching on only 3 days rest. I also thought LaRussa would know how to coach in this situation. He has way too much faith in Carpenter. Better get his rotation ready out of the bullpen tonight. I admire LaRussa whole heartedly... but he needs to figure out what happens if Carpenter gets jammed early.

[Mikail]

There are other +even plays today. This one is not likely to cash.

[benjy]

There are other +even plays today. This one is not likely to cash.

Other plus EV (expected value) plays today? Do tell.

I'd say this play has about a (1-(175/275)) 36% chance to cash, so yes unlikely.

[Avenger]

Brrrrump!