Toddorts 2011 MLB Playoff Picks

[toddorts]

What a great day in baseball! I love October. Lost the Tigers game, but as much as it sucks to lose a play, I'm kind of glad to see the Tigers still in it. Them and the Brewers would make a great series, even though the ratings wouldn't make Fox too happy. Anyway, today's record was 2-1, +1.2 units.

Record:

21-17-1
55.3%
+6.75 units

[BennyFang]

Thanks, Benny! GL to you, too!

Sure.....well I think I was wrong on most of my thoughts but the end result was positive! I'm thinking Brewers today.

[toddorts]

I wish I could take the Brewers, because I'd really like to see them and the Tigers in the big series, but I just don't see any value there. I'd need the line to be at about +135 before I'd take a look at it. I'm going to have to go with the Cardinals RL today. My only play for the day:

Brewers @ CARDINALS RL -1.5 +170

Brewers @ Cardinals

Oh, how I wish my formulas would give the Brewers the advantage here. I really don't get any excitement whatsoever out of the thought of the Cards being in the World Series. Unfortunately, though, my formulas are giving a clear advantage to the Cards in this game. According to my numbers, they win this one outright about 56.5% of the time, and they win by at least 2 points about 44.5% of the time. The ML on the Brewers just doesn't offer any value at these probabilities. In fact, I think the line is just about perfect. The no-vig line should be at about 130/-130 by my numbers, and all of the books are offering lines very close to that. In other words, no value to be had on either side. On the other hand, the RL is way out of whack at all of the books. It seems that everyone is offering the RL at +170, which is way too high. I'd take it at anything better than +140. Both teams are pitching good pitchers in Greinke and Garcia, and both teams do relatively well offensively against good pitching. But the Cardinals just do offense much better in this sort of matchup. They don't get much of a homefield advantage, but they don't really need it. Against good pitching, I expect about 4-5 runs from them, and about 3-4 runs from the Brewers. At +170 on the Cards' RL, the value is obvious. Much like the RL, though, the posted total is dead on balls accurate by my numbers. I put the O/U at 7.7, and it looks like everyone is offering it at 7.5. Way too close for a play. Only the RL for me today.

[toddorts]

Another good day! Missed the game, but I landed with good news tonight. For the day, 1-0, +1.7 units.

Record:

22-17-1
56.4%
+8.45 units

[toddorts]

One game today, but two plays:

TIGERS @ Rangers +147
Tigers @ Rangers OVER 9 +100

Tigers @ Rangers

My numbers show that this should be a very close game (which hopefully means a very good game, as well). Scherzer and Holland are pretty much evenly matched, with Holland possibly having a slight edge based on his stats this season, but it's difficult to tell. Neither are incredible pitchers, of course, which means that we should see plenty of hits with these two good offensive teams at the plate. The Rangers do have a bit of a homefield advantage, although it isn't overwhelming based on the scoring numbers they've put up this season at home and away. But it is there. Taking everything together, though, it seems that the Tigers have a slight advantage. Against average pitching, the Tigers have managed to put up just a bit under 6 runs per 9 innings of play this season, while the Rangers have done a bit less at just under 5.5. Those numbers include corrections for the stadium (this stadium tends to boost scoring by over 10%) and for homefield advantage for the Rangers (about 15%). With those numbers, and the slight advantage I give Holland at home, I see the Tigers winning this matchup about 53% of the time. Because of the homefield advantage and the perception amongst the betting public that the Rangers are going to want to work hard to seal the deal tonight, the line has been driven to unreasonable levels, which is creating great value on Detroit. Most books have them at about +140, which is already excellent, but I managed to find a +147. You might be able to dig around and find even better, as I only maintain a handful of accounts. Anything positive money is good on the Tigers in this game, though. On the total, this is a clear bet on the over. I calculate the likely total at about 11, and the books are all offering it at 9 with even money or even plus money in some cases. Snatch this one up. I figure this game has a 63% probability of going over 9. Excellent value.

[Adm. Cowpollock]

One game today, but two plays:

TIGERS @ Rangers +147
Tigers @ Rangers OVER 9 +100

Tigers @ Rangers

My numbers show that this should be a very close game (which hopefully means a very good game, as well). Scherzer and Holland are pretty much evenly matched, with Holland possibly having a slight edge based on his stats this season, but it's difficult to tell. Neither are incredible pitchers, of course, which means that we should see plenty of hits with these two good offensive teams at the plate. The Rangers do have a bit of a homefield advantage, although it isn't overwhelming based on the scoring numbers they've put up this season at home and away. But it is there. Taking everything together, though, it seems that the Tigers have a slight advantage. Against average pitching, the Tigers have managed to put up just a bit under 6 runs per 9 innings of play this season, while the Rangers have done a bit less at just under 5.5. Those numbers include corrections for the stadium (this stadium tends to boost scoring by over 10%) and for homefield advantage for the Rangers (about 15%). With those numbers, and the slight advantage I give Holland at home, I see the Tigers winning this matchup about 53% of the time. Because of the homefield advantage and the perception amongst the betting public that the Rangers are going to want to work hard to seal the deal tonight, the line has been driven to unreasonable levels, which is creating great value on Detroit. Most books have them at about +140, which is already excellent, but I managed to find a +147. You might be able to dig around and find even better, as I only maintain a handful of accounts. Anything positive money is good on the Tigers in this game, though. On the total, this is a clear bet on the over. I calculate the likely total at about 11, and the books are all offering it at 9 with even money or even plus money in some cases. Snatch this one up. I figure this game has a 63% probability of going over 9. Excellent value.

So you like the game over better than Det over 4 ... ? I'm leaning Det over 4. I figured it was pretty much a tossup between those two plays and with Det over 4 I wouldn't have to root for the Rangers...

Agree with you on great value with Det +147, still thinking about that one. Maybe a small play...

[toddorts]

I never play team totals. I'm just too lazy to look at those in addition to MLs, RLs, and game totals. But yes, if the TT is being offered at 4, then that's a very good bet.

[toddorts]

Just a break even day. Sad day for Tigers fans, too. They had a good season, though. Went 1-1 for the day, +0.0 units.

Record:

23-18-1
56.1%
+8.45 units

[toddorts]

Two plays today, although one is a bit iffy:

Cardinals @ BREWERS RL -1.5 +170
Cardinals @ Brewers OVER 8.5 +100

Cardinals @ Brewers

I feel pretty good about the value on the RL here. As talked about many times before, the Brewers have been almost unbeatable at home this season. They average 12% better scoring at home than they do overall, while Miller Park suppresses runs by visiting teams by a significant margin. The pitching here is also a clear advantage for the Brew Crew. Marcum should do just fine, while Jackson will probably have trouble keeping the Brewers at bay on their home turf. This is also a must-win game for the Brewers. While I don't take that or other subjective factors into account in my capping, many do, so it's something for some of you to consider. I see the Brewers ending up with 5-6 runs, and the Cards with 3-4. My formulas give it a 49% chance that the Brewers win this one by at least 2 runs. At +170 on the runline, there is incredible value here. Should be a good game either way, though. The total isn't nearly as clear of a bet, though. This is a pretty close call on whether to make a play or not. My numbers put the projected total at 9.1, and the posted total at all of the books is 8.5. The only reason I'm taking this one is because I could find a book offering it at EV. Still a close call even at that, but I think there is a bit of value.

[toddorts]

That was one crazy baseball game. Really don't even know what to say about it. Anyway, another break-even day. Record for the day was 1-1, +0.0 units.

Record:

24-19-1
55.8%
+8.45 units

[toddorts]

Ahhh, back to baseball after a few days of nothing but hockey. Not exactly the world series I was hoping for (I thought it would have been great to see the Brewers and Tigers), but I still love the world series, no matter who's playing. With these two teams, I see real potential for it to go all the way down to game 7. Should be a good contest. For the first game, I have two plays:

Rangers @ CARDINALS RL -1.5 +185
Rangers @ Cardinals OVER 7.5 -113

Rangers @ Cardinals

My numbers indicate to me that this is going to be one hell of a close game. Wilson is the slightly better pitcher, but not enough to make that decide the outcome of the game. Both are relatively good pitchers. Homefield advantage plays a small factor here, but the truth is, the Cards haven't scored much better at home this year than they have on the road. There is a slight edge there, but all it really does is cancel out the small edge that Wilson has over Carpenter. So, we're back to even. That brings us down to offense. Here, the Cards have an ever so slight advantage. But it really is slight. I see the likely outcomes of both teams to be between 4-5 runs. The Cards are just a bit more likely to hit 5 than the Rangers. So, why am I taking the -1.5 RL on a game that I'm predicting to be so close? As usual, because of value. Yes, it is almost a toss-up on who wins this game, and it is likely to be close, but the RL on the Cards is posted at +185 at 5Dimes, and +175 at most other books. Those are incredible odds. I calculate that the Cards win this game by at least 2 runs about 40.5% of the time. That would make the RL worthwhile at +155 or better. So, great value here. Do I expect to win it? No, but I expect to win it enough times to make it a profitable wager over time. And that's how you make money betting on sports. On the total, I like the over. Yes, there is a bit of concern about the wind in today's game, with it possibly pushing some balls foul that would normally go over, but I see enough of a delta between my calculated total and the posted total to make it worthwhile. I calculate the total at 8.7, and the books are offering 7.5. Don't take it at anything worse than -120, though. I got -113 on the reduced juice lines at 5Dimes, and that's definitely worth it.

[Adm. Cowpollock]

Ahhh, back to baseball after a few days of nothing but hockey. Not exactly the world series I was hoping for (I thought it would have been great to see the Brewers and Tigers), but I still love the world series, no matter who's playing. With these two teams, I see real potential for it to go all the way down to game 7. Should be a good contest. For the first game, I have two plays:

Rangers @ CARDINALS RL -1.5 +185
Rangers @ Cardinals OVER 8.5 -113

Rangers @ Cardinals

My numbers indicate to me that this is going to be one hell of a close game. Wilson is the slightly better pitcher, but not enough to make that decide the outcome of the game. Both are relatively good pitchers. Homefield advantage plays a small factor here, but the truth is, the Cards haven't scored much better at home this year than they have on the road. There is a slight edge there, but all it really does is cancel out the small edge that Wilson has over Carpenter. So, we're back to even. That brings us down to offense. Here, the Cards have an ever so slight advantage. But it really is slight. I see the likely outcomes of both teams to be between 4-5 runs. The Cards are just a bit more likely to hit 5 than the Rangers. So, why am I taking the -1.5 RL on a game that I'm predicting to be so close? As usual, because of value. Yes, it is almost a toss-up on who wins this game, and it is likely to be close, but the RL on the Cards is posted at +185 at 5Dimes, and +175 at most other books. Those are incredible odds. I calculate that the Cards win this game by at least 2 runs about 40.5% of the time. That would make the RL worthwhile at +155 or better. So, great value here. Do I expect to win it? No, but I expect to win it enough times to make it a profitable wager over time. And that's how you make money betting on sports. On the total, I like the over. Yes, there is a bit of concern about the wind in today's game, with it possibly pushing some balls foul that would normally go over, but I see enough of a delta between my calculated total and the posted total to make it worthwhile. I calculate the total at 8.7, and the books are offering 7.5. Don't take it at anything worse than -120, though. I got -113 on the reduced juice lines at 5Dimes, and that's definitely worth it.

LOL you and I sure read pitchers differently! I'll take Carp over Wilson in a game like this big time, all day, slam dunk. What do you make of the effect of the forecast -- 46 F, 36 F wind chill? I've always figured chilly temps favor pitchers, but have no data to back that up. I don't have a good feel for team total or game total runs in this one at all.

Love your call on StL RL, agreed, strong value there. Though it's now down to +175 at 5d.

Thanks for the detailed analysis and best of luck! Looking forward to some great postseason baseball!

[Jcm144]

Over 8.5?.....most books are saying 7.5

[toddorts]

Over 8.5?.....most books are saying 7.5

Thanks, that was a typo. I fixed it.

[toddorts]

LOL you and I sure read pitchers differently! I'll take Carp over Wilson in a game like this big time, all day, slam dunk. What do you make of the effect of the forecast -- 46 F, 36 F wind chill? I've always figured chilly temps favor pitchers, but have no data to back that up. I don't have a good feel for team total or game total runs in this one at all.

There just isn't enough data on the effects of temperature for me to make adjustments either way on that. It's all too subjective, and that makes it too much like gambling for me. I'm all about the numbers, and until I have solid numerical data to make adjustments for temperature, I won't do it. Wind is pretty objective, because you can clearly see how it will affect the ball in flight, but the effect of temperature on players is a whole different ball game (pun intended ).

Love your call on StL RL, agreed, strong value there. Though it's now down to +175 at 5d.

They've still got it at +185, you just have to click on "Reduced" instead of "MLB" on the selection list. I hate how they don't put them all in one place. I was making wagers for months on the regular juice lines just because I didn't realize that they had the reduced juice option in another spot.

[Adm. Cowpollock]

They've still got it at +185, you just have to click on "Reduced" instead of "MLB" on the selection list. I hate how they don't put them all in one place. I was making wagers for months on the regular juice lines just because I didn't realize that they had the reduced juice option in another spot.

So it is, thanks. I don't always remember to look there... Do you do any hockey capping, BTW?

[toddorts]

Do you do any hockey capping, BTW?

I do, but I use the first month of the season in every sport to collect stats to make sure that the formulas are still sound and don't need adjustments. I'll start betting on hockey in a couple of weeks. I do more totals than I do sides, though.

[toddorts]

Well, that day sucked. I can't complain, though. Still way up for the post season, and tomorrow is another day. Record for the day was 0-2, -2.0 units.

Record:

24-21-1
53.3%
+6.45 units

[toddorts]

Unfortunately, I don't have any plays for today. All of the posted lines are just too accurate. The total is absolutely perfect at 8. Zero value there. I calculate a line of -106 for the Rangers in this game, and everyone is offering them at about -115, which means negative value. There is almost value on the Cards at +110, but it's very borderline. If it went up to +115, I'd take it. The closest thing to some value on this game is the Rangers RL at +140, but that's still not good enough value for me to bite. I calculate the real no-vig RL at +135, so I'd need to see about +145 before I'd nibble on this one. Otherwise, it's just too close. I'll be watching the line movement today to see if it improves any, and if it does, I'll post a pick, but it's looking like I'll be passing on this game. Sometimes no play is the smartest play.

[toddorts]

Ok, last minute play for tonight's game. I was watching the lines all day, and they moved late in the date on the RL to where I can see some value. Here's the play:

RANGERS @ Cardinals RL -1.5 +145

Rangers @ Cardinals

Not much time for a big write-up, so I'll make this one quick. This is one is close, but I give the Rangers a slight advantage due to offensive stats, even though Garcia is a better pitcher. I see a 42.5% chance that the Rangers win this one by at least 2 runs, which means the RL has value on the Rangers at +145 or better. No value at all on the total, as I think the posted total of 8 is dead on.

[toddorts]

Damn, another one run game. Oh well. Today's record was 0-1, -1.0 unit.

Record:

24-22-1
52.2%
+5.45 units

[toddorts]

Ok, after a day off, back to World Series baseball. Two plays for today's game:

CARDINALS @ Rangers +174
Cardinals @ Rangers OVER 9.5 -105

Cardinals @ Rangers

This looks to be a relatively close game, although the Rangers certainly have the advantage. Both pitchers are pretty much evenly matched. I really don't give either of them any sort of edge. The Rangers get some of their edge from the homefield advantage. They've been scoring nearly 20% more at home this season than they have overall. They also have slightly better offensive stats against average pitchers than the Cards do. So, it comes out as a slight edge for the Rangers. The reason I'm picking the Cards is because of the value. The Rangers have a 57.5% chance of winning, which really only justifies a line of -135 for them. The betting public has overestimated their homefield advantage and momentum here, and they've driven the line to unreasonable levels. That means that there is excellent value on the Cards. I would take them at anything better than +145, and most books are offering far better than that. I found +174 at Bookmaker. On the total, it's a close call. I calculate the total at 10.3, and the posted line is 9.5 at all of the books that I've seen. Those numbers give it a 53% chance of going over by my formulas. At -105 odds, this one is just slightly worth a wager. Anything worse than -105 and I wouldn't touch it. If you can find a EV line, that's even better. I couldn't find one, but I was willing to accept -105.

[Adm. Cowpollock]

I'm with you on StL (have it at +177, small play). The o/u is a really tough call. I expect a strong outing from Harrison, though the fan in me wishes it otherwise. Lohse is the wildcard in my view. I didn't realize this until recently, but 2011 was the best year in Lohse's 11-year career by a sizable margin in terms of ERA, BAA and WHIP. I am inclined to give Lohse the benefit of the doubt and expect a quality start. While the warmer temperatures of Arlington and the DH will be conducive to more run-scoring than we've seen in this series so far, 10 runs is still a lot, particularly with two quality pens. I've gotta go with u 9.5, but only on the condition that LaRussa promises not to trot in Arthur Rhodes, under any circumstances.

[toddorts]

And just like that, a few bad days are made up for with two plays. Always nice to have your formulas revalidated to keep your confidence up. Today's record was 2-0, +2.69 units.

Record:

26-22-1
54.2%
+8.14 units

[toddorts]

I can't believe the lines today haven't normalized after the Cards beat the shit out of the Rangers last night. You'd think people would realize that neither of these two teams deserves a crazy line like -170 in this series. Apparently not, though. That just gives us an opportunity again. One play for today:

CARDINALS @ Rangers +166

Cardinals @ Rangers

Much like yesterday's game, it's certainly true that the Rangers have the advantage here. They still score about 20% more at home than they do overall, they still have slightly better offensive stats for the season, and the pitchers are still evenly matched. It's basically the same game played again. But once again, the line is all out of whack. Most books have the Rangers at -170. That's a hell of a lot of juice for a matchup that barely gives the Rangers an advantage. My formulas say that the real line should be -130 for the Rangers. I'd take the Cards at anything +140 or better. I got +166 at 5Dimes, and that is good value. Unfortunately, I don't see any value in the total. There were books offering 9.5 last night, and that would have been a decent over play, but everyone is at 10 or even 10.5 now. I doubt it dips all the way back down to 9.5 before the first pitch. If it does, it's worth a look if juice isn't too much. If not, I'm passing on the total and just going for the ML.

[toddorts]

It was a long shot for the Cards to pull this off two nights in a row, so no big surprise at the outcome, but that sort of play is still a money maker over the long haul. Still way up for the post season. Record for the day was 0-1, -1.0 unit.

Record:

26-23-1
53.1%
+7.14 units

[toddorts]

Gotta run, so no time for a detailed write-up right now (maybe later), but here are today's two picks:

Cardinals @ RANGERS RL -1.5 +170
Cardinals @ Rangers OVER 8 -110

[toddorts]

Ok, finally have a few minutes to write. Let's start with the RL pick. There were two ways to go here on sides. You could either take the ML on the Cards, which had a tiny bit of value at +112, or the RL on the Rangers, which had a good amount of value at +170. I calculated the line using my formulas at +EV for the ML, and at +146 on the RL for the Rangers. So, there was value on both plays. But, there was more value on the RL. Either is a profitable play over the long haul, though. The game is basically evenly matched, with both teams expected to score between 5-6 points over 9 innings of play, according to my formulas. Both pitchers are in the same league, with both of them being relatively good on the mound. Both offenses are strong against good pitching. The Rangers have a slight homefield advantage, but nothing huge based on their numbers this season. In the end, these numbers all indicate that plus money on the ML for either team is a good play, as is really strong plus money on either RL. So, pick whichever you like. The safer play is the Cards ML, but it has less profit potential, while the Rangers RL is more profitable, but carries greater risk. On the total, this is a pretty clear play, according to my formulas. Like I said, both teams are likely to score in the 5-6 runs range. My model puts the projected total at 10.8. With the books all offering a posted total of 8, this is a no-brainer. I project this game to go over about 65.5% of the time.

[toddorts]

Not a bad day. Went 1-1, +0.7 units.

Record:

27-24-1
52.9%
+7.84 units

[toddorts]

Should be a good night in baseball. I've only got one play for the game, though:

Rangers @ CARDINALS RL -1.5 +190

Rangers @ Cardinals

This is going to be a good game. My numbers put the outcome at a very close call. We've got Lewis on the mound for the Rangers, and he's nothing to be too proud of, but he's not horrible, either. On the other hand, Garcia is on the mound for the Cards, and he's not bad at all, but the Rangers have done very well against good pitching this season, averaging about 4.6 runs per 9 innings of play against solid pitchers. The Cardinals get a slight bump for homefield advantage, but it's nothing huge. In the end, I expect to see about 3-5 runs for both teams. It really could go either way. So, if you're a ML bettor, the best play is on the Rangers at +105. There's a small bit of value there. But for me, the best value is on the RL (which is usually the case for favorites). The RL is paying +190 at 5Dimes, and +180-185 at most other books. My formulas put the true line at +167, so that's not bad value at all. And for those of you who care about subjective factors (I don't), remember that this is a "must win" game for the Cards. Texas is up 3-2 in the series, and a win for them tonight will make them the World Series winners tonight. If you believe in that subjective stuff, then you've got to believe that the Cards will playing as hard as they can tonight to save their asses. On the total, I see no value in the over or under. My formulas put the projected total at 8.1. That's not a bad margin from the posted total of 7, but the problem is that the line is at -120 or -125, depending on the book. I'd need to see a -110, maybe a -115 if I was feeling frisky. At -120, it's too much like gambling, not investing.

[Jcm144]

GL, but i gotta go with TEX ml, to finish this series off........but I would say that the rain delay deff gave an advantage to the Cards

[toddorts]

Well, didn't cash the play, but what a great baseball game. Sure, lots of errors, but for pure excitement, that was probably the best baseball game I've watched in a long while. Record for the night was 0-1, -1.0 unit.

Record:

27-25-1
51.9%
+6.84 units

[toddorts]

Well, here it is. Game 7. The last night of baseball for the year. And along with it, my last baseball play of the year:

RANGERS @ Cardinals ML +133

Rangers @ Cardinals

My formulas are putting out very similar numbers for tonight's game that they were for yesterday's game. The difference is the odds that are being offered. Texas is now at +133 at Heritage, and +131 at most other books. Yesterday they were just at +105, and I see this as basically the same matchup. You have Harrison against Carpenter, with Harrison being an average pitcher, and Carpenter being pretty decent. You have two good offenses against good pitching, with Texas having a slight edge. And you have the Cards with only a slight homefield advantage. In the end, it comes down to almost a pure pick-em game. My formulas give the Rangers a 50.5% chance of winning the game. That's about as close as it gets. But with odds as good as +133, it's a no-brainer. I'd take Texas at anything +105 or better. On the total, there isn't a good play here. I'm sure a lot of people are tempted to take the over after last night's game, but don't let it fool you. That kind of anomaly comes along every now and then, but it's not consistent. Tonight's game could go 3-2 just as easily as it could go 9-8. In the aggregate, though, this matchup has the line set just right at 8, so there is no profitable play. If it went down to 7.5 before the game, then I'd be tempted to take another look, but not a chance at 8.

[BennyFang]

ugh.....value on Rangers, momentum on Cards. I was one of those idiots that took the Rangers series off the top at -150 ($1500 to win $1000). Tough spot for me. Hedge out and pay out the hefty juice or suck it up and pray?

[toddorts]

ugh.....value on Rangers, momentum on Cards. I was one of those idiots that took the Rangers series off the top at -150 ($1500 to win $1000). Tough spot for me. Hedge out and pay out the hefty juice or suck it up and pray?

Hmmm, tough call. I'm usually not one to hedge bets, but this game really is a toss-up, and now that we're at Game 7, you basically have $1500 on the Rangers ML for the game at -150. Not a position I'd want to be in. I'd probably seriously consider hedging with at least a small play on the Cards.