jtuck MLB II

[jtuck]

My first thread ended badly, down about 18 units. I made several mistakes with parlays and chases there that ive vowed not to repeat again. I've re-upped at BetOnline with $1000, gonna track the plays here. I know its not much money, i'm not trying to make a living with this, just a little gas money would be nice. Attempting full kelly as well. Money management is key.

Like i said, old tread was down 18 units, i'm starting over at zero so at least in my mind i wont be focused on making those units up.

7/22/08

St. Louis Cardinals -135 Risk $40.26 to win $29.82

After a tough loss in Extras tonight, the cards will bounce back tomorrow with Kyle Lohse on the hill. The Cardinals are 11-1 in Lohse's last 12 starts. This year, Lohse is 8-0 with a 2.20 ERA at night. He's also 6-1 with a 2.73 ERA at home. Suppan is 3-5 with a 6.04 ERA on the road and just 2-4 in night games. On the offensive side, the edge also goes to the cardinals, who are hitting right handed pitchers at .352 clip and scoring 7.92 runs per game in their last ten vs. righties. In that same 10 game stretch the brewers are hitting righties at only .232.

[BuddyBear]

I tend to agree somewhat here. Lohse has been a godsend for STL this year, but the reality is that he is not that good. He has way overperformed this year and now it's only a matter of time before he comes back to earth. However, Jeff Suppan is a road fade as his splits are considerably better at home than they are on the road.

MIL has never played particularly well in STL and with CC Sabithia and Ben Sheets going Wed and Thur, you almost get the feeling that this is a must win for STL.

I think it is priced to high, but this sets up nicely after a tough loss today for them.

Good luck....

[jtuck]

Thanks, i think there's a small edge here for STL, I don't buy into a player playing over there heads when they've been solid all year. Look at what cliff lee has done this year compared to last. Everyone keeps thinking Tim Wakefield is due for a bad start too, and it still hasn't came.

[BuddyBear]

Well Lee's a better pitcher than Lohse. He's always had better mechanics and control than Lohse. Lohse is something of a journeyman and his success if far more surprising than Lee's. Nevertheless, I'd lean STL personally. Suppan has had some very poor starts this year on the road and it will be interesting to see how he pitches off the DL.

We'll see where the line goes than I'll decide, but my initial lean is for STL, mainly as a fade on Suppan.

Good luck....

[jtuck]

0-1, $-40.26
Got off to a great start yesterday with the cards leading for 7 innings and blowing it. Like 2 today.

Angels -168 Risk $62 to win $36.90
Lots of chalk here, but i really like this play. The Angels are 8-1 in Lackey's last 9 starts. Lackey is 3-1 with a 2.72 ERA at home this year, while Laffey is 0-3 with a 5.84 ERA on the road. The Indians are 18-33 on the road while the Angels are 30-21 at home.

Marlins +100 Risk $30 to win $30
I dont see any reason why florida should be even money here, and bettors agree, having moved the line 10 cents overnight. The Braves are 16-33 on the road. Hudson and Nolasco both have very similar overall stats this year, but Hudson is only 2-6 with a 4.09 ERA on the road. Nolasco has won 6 of his last 7 starts when the Marlins are underdogs, and 8 of his last 10 overall. The braves are hitting .226 against right handed pitchers.

[jtuck]

1-2 -$33.36

Small play for today, the line's dropped enough to give it a little value.

Brewers -121 Risk $37.89 to win $31.31

The Brewers have won 7 straight overall and 5 straight against the cardinals. Ben Sheets is 6-1 with a 2.84 ERA on the road, while Wellemeyer is 6-4 with a 5.08 ERA and a WHIP of 1.48 at home. Sheets is also great at night, 6-1 with a 1.98 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP on the year. The bats do favor the cardinals a bit, but i like Sheets here more so than the cards offense

[jtuck]

2-2 -$2.05

7/25/08

Angels -132 Risk 95.96 to win 72.70

Feel i have a huge edge here, time to start growing the bankroll into something meaningful. Write up: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...oon-opens.html

Also looking at mets, if the line drops much overnight i'll be on them too.

[jtuck]

Late Play
D-Backs 22.82 to win 16.30

[jtuck]

4-2 +86.95

2-0 Friday, I dont see much value in anything for saturday. Probably will take the day off.

[jtuck]

Decided to stray from Kelly for this one, it just looks too easy.

Marlins/Cubs NO First Inning Run -160 Risk 32 to win 20

Harden has given up a first inning score in just one of his last ten starts. Volstad hasn't given one up this year. Cubs have scored a first inning run in 2 of their last ten and 5 of their last 20. Marlins, just like the cubs, have scored one 2 out of their last 10 and 5 out of 20.

[jtuck]

4-3 +54.95

Made a -EV bet and it cost me.

LA Angels -124 Risk 46.62 to win 37.60
Looked at this one last night and talked myself out of it, now i've talked myself back into it. The Angels have won 8 of 9 overall and 10 of 13 against the O's. Garland hasn't been anything special for the Angels, but Radhames Liz has been just plain awful for the Orioles, 1-2 with an 11.57 ERA and an unheard of 2.74 WHIP. The Angels allow 4.4 runs per in Garlands starts, the O's allow 6.11 per game in Liz's starts. The true advantage here comes with the bullpens though. Liz has made it to the 7th just once in his last 10 starts, and 4 of the Orioles top 5 arms in the pen were used last night.

[jtuck]

5-3 +92.55

7/27/08

LA Angels -142 Risk 45.20 to win 31.83

Either I'm overvaluing the Angels or undervaluing the Orioles, but 3 days in a row i find value in the number. Angels are hot, winning 9 of 10 and they've owned Baltimore of late. Santana is 8-1 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road. Olson is 0-2 with an 11.20 ERA and 2.37 WHIP his last 3. As a team, Baltimore hits .262 vs. righties in their last ten, while the Angels have crushed lefties hitting .333 and scoring 7.28 runs per.

[ChuteBoxe]

Keep up the hard work bud. Best of luck today.

[jtuck]

Thanks Chute

Another one today
Cubs -157 Risk 41.26 to win 26.28
Line has kept dropping, feel its worth a play now.

[jtuck]

7/28/08
Brew Crew -167 Risk 57.69 to win 34.60
No time for a write up, put some of my reasoning in another thread. Lots of chalk but i feel its worth it.

[jtuck]

6-5 +15.94
I now have a permanent grudge against Richie Weeks. Possibly the most useless position player in baseball. Several small plays for today.

7/29/08
Detroit Tigers (-122) 32.46 to win 26.61
Minnesota Twins (-122) 26.53 to win 21.75
New York Yankees (-168) 35.60 to win 21.19

And the stupidest one of the bunch
TOR/TB No Score 1st (-150) 30 to win 20

[max_asdf]

ricky weeks i believe his name is



gl

[jtuck]

Thanks, and yea its Rickie. Either way he's still a useless tool. His wikipedia sums it up... "Weeks has not yet shown he can consistently hit for average and field his position well"

[jtuck]

Yanks gave it away to spoil the sweep, still a good day going 3-1.

YTD 9-6 +48.70

Have 3 plays I love tomorrow, will post lines and bet size as soon as BetOnline puts them up.

Rockies
Aaron Cook has been a bright spot for the Rockies this season at 13-6 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He's been even better in his last 3, going 2-0, 2.14 ERA and .86 WHIP. On the other hand, Zach Duke has tanked for the Pirates lately going 0-3 in his last 3 starts with a 10.06 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. Just 10 days ago cook went 7, giving up only 3 earned against the pirated with Nady in the lineup. That same game, Duke went 5 and gave up 9 to the Rockies. He gave up 5 ER in 6 IP to the offensively challenged Padres in his last start at home. You get the point. Offensively, the Rockies are hitting lefties at .333 and .369 overall in their last 10, scoring nearly 8 runs per. This is my P.O.D.

Mets
Mets are 16-5 in their last 21. Even though Pelfrey's road numbers aren't great this year, the Mets have won his last 5 road starts and his last 9 starts overall. In his last 3, Pelfrey has gone 2-0, 2.45 ERA and a .91 WHIP. Johnson has only made 3 starts this year, and does have decent numbers but they came against teams that were struggling offensively. The Mets don't fitinto that category, hitting .308 against righties in there last 10 and scoring 5.83 runs per.

Astros
Houston is looking to close out the sweep on the Reds. The reds have lost 5 straight. Volquez has cooled off drastically in his last 3 starts, just 1-2 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. I think his run of the first half is over. Rodriguez is 3-0 in his last 3 with a 3.00 ERA. He's 3-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home this year. Astros are torching right handed pitching in the last 10, hitting .307 and scoring 5.14 runs per.

Also have a strong lean on the Phillies, going to look at it closer tomorrow.

[jtuck]

Wow, BetOnline got them up quick tonight

Rockies (-142) 52.60 to win 37.04
Mets (-124) 32.90 to win 26.53
Astros (-112) 28.70 to win 25.62

And the most square thing on the planet...
Yankees (-280) 140 to win 50

[jtuck]

Yankees thankfully won earlier, Colorado and Houston lines have both jumped big time from last night so feelin good about those. Adding two more for tonight, this is by far the most games i've ever played in a day but like them all alot.

Phillies -130 Risk 34.23 to win 27.10
Dodgers -182 37.20 to win 20.44

[jtuck]

Action Junkie tonight

D-Backs -148 30.37 to win 20.52

[jtuck]

Huge day Wednesday, going 5-2 +93.50

For the thread 14-8 +142.20

7/31/08

Big Edge Here
Twins -121 Risk 60.10 to win 49.67

Twins are 36-20 at home on the year and 20-6 in there last 26 as the favorite. They've won 5 of 6 at home against the Sox. Scott Baker is 3-1, 2.38 ERA and .91 WHIP at home and 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA and .85 WHIP in his last 3 overall. Danks has a 7.13 ERA and 1.47 WHIP his last 3. Twins are hitting .284 vs. lefties in their last 10, while the sox are only hitting .243 against righties in that same span. Twins are scoring 5.18 runs per game at home this year and only allowing 3.71.

[jtuck]

Add
Phillies (-123) Risk 28.12 to win 22.86
Cardinals (-113) Risk 23.54 to win 20.83
LAD/AZ No score 1st Risk 30 to win 20

[max_asdf]

gl

winning some money i see

[jtuck]

Thank ya, hard to do betting so small but i've gotta sharpen my capping skills quite a bit before i step it up

[max_asdf]

doesnt matter how mcuh u bet

if this isnt your main method of making a living -.-

[jtuck]

Another play of the day winner, 3-1 +68.99 for Thursday. For the thread 17-9 +211.19

8/1/08

Cubs -225 Risk 88.10 to win 39.36
Rangers -110 Risk 40.71 to win 37.01
Padres +121 27.90 to win 33.76

[jtuck]

Stupid play on the cubs

Add
Twins -156 68.44 to win 43.87

[B1GER1C828]

love the twins play, honestly believe it should b the play of the day..good luck!

[jtuck]

Thanks, didn't look at the twins hard enough last night, probably would have stayed away from the cubbies if i would have. My hot streak was bound to end sometime soon though

[jtuck]

Made 2 more bets, i'll admit i'm chasing a bit but with a game i love

Twins -155 100 to win 64.52
Marlins -108 21.30 to win 19.72

[jtuck]

2-3 but big bets on the twins made me8.10
for friday.

For the thread 19-12 +219.29

Too drunk to cap saturay games, will post when i get them done tomorrow

[jtuck]

Startin it off 2-0

White Sox (-150) Risk 47.82 to win 31.88
Brewers (-190) Risk 56.18 to win 29.57

[B1GER1C828]

spidey senses say atl has a shot at this game...i see alot of people betting brewers and think they mite b let down. I think atl has a 40% chance at this game.

definatly agree wit wsox tho..good luck jtuck!