Why is Philly/St. Louis O/U 10?

ertl09 · 07-10-08, 09:16 AM

I know, I don't understand this myself. I want to pound the under in this game but for some reason I have a bad feeling so think I'll just stay away.

BuddyBear · 07-10-08, 09:23 AM

ballpark, daytime, and both are average pitchers......

Marigold HD · 07-10-08, 09:33 AM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

ballpark, daytime, and both are average pitchers......

That's exactly the reason......I also have a funny feeling about this game. Scared to take the under in this game. Oh well, I may stay away.

DIF · 07-10-08, 09:35 AM

last 20 games heads up about 10.5 runs/average. but last 2 is few scores.

DIF · 07-10-08, 09:37 AM

my first feeling was exact the same that you got. I think this go UNDER. but the heads ups scared me away.

Wilforth · 07-10-08, 09:58 AM

Given the way these 2 teams are currently playing, the Under is a gift in this one. With relatively crap pitchers yesterday, they game only ended in 6 runs. What would have happened overnight to dramatically change the offensive production of these teams?

ZBOIZ · 07-10-08, 10:03 AM

if you not gone play the under then stay away!!

BuddyBear · 07-10-08, 10:04 AM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Given the way these 2 teams are currently playing, the Under is a gift in this one. With relatively crap pitchers yesterday, they game only ended in 6 runs. What would have happened overnight to dramatically change the offensive production of these teams?

Didn't you tell us MINN was a gift yesterday too?

I don't think you quite understand yet. O/U plays are based on individual pitching matchups, ballpark, lineups, time of day the game is played, etc... What happened yesterday matters very little in today's O/U. Both pitchers are different, the time of day is different, biorhythms are different for players. I guess the fact that STL bullpen pitched 7 2/3 innings yesterday should factor in but still we have two different pitchers here. PHIL has played UNDER quite a bit this year which is strange b/c it is an OVERS ballpark. However, that under edge is gone in day games as OVERS are statistically significantly more likely to go over in the day time than in night games. Both pitchers are okay, not great, just average. STL is okay LH pitching....

We'll see, but I'd lean slightly to the over but probably won't play it.

ZXCVBNM123 · 07-10-08, 10:21 AM

Ah I found the incriminating stats.

Looper 2-2 6.75 ERA 5 games 24 innings 18 earned runs at day.
Moyer 2-2 5.50 ERA 7 games 37.2 innings 23 earned runs at day.

Not the best.

STL has gone under 10 in their past 5 games.
PHI has gone under 10 3 times in their past 5.

Both of Philly's over games were a seperate Phils and Mets bullpen explosion in different days.

I don't know, I still like the under if only for the Cards. The Phils are in a slump and they could bust out today but hopefully not.

Wilforth · 07-10-08, 10:25 AM

BuddyBear,

Oh, MIN/BOS yesterday? That's a game to forget for many reasons. There were more reasons to go with the Under in that game than there were for the Over. A prediction is, no matter the factual basis for it, a mere prediction. You don't get it right all the time but if in the long run you're hitting good percentages then you're fine.

I wouldn't take the Under in the Phillies game based on the potential pitching quality. If things were working for the offenses of these 2 teams, we would expect the Over in this game, all things considered. But as of the moment, the Under appears very realistic even if the pitching were mediocre. The offensive production of these 2 teams lately makes the Under very appealing.

Anyways, if you're looking for a Under play, the Dbacks/Nationals game appears one of, if not, the best. Others include the Indians' and Dodger's games.

Lastly, I won't use the word "gift" anymore when speculating the outcome of a game.

BuddyBear · 07-10-08, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by Wilforth

BuddyBear,

Oh, MIN/BOS yesterday? That's a game to forget for many reasons. There were more reasons to go with the Under in that game than there were for the Over. A prediction is, no matter the factual basis for it, a mere prediction. You don't get it right all the time but if in the long run you're hitting good percentages then you're fine.

I wouldn't take the Under in the Phillies game based on the potential pitching quality. If things were working for the offenses of these 2 teams, we would expect the Over in this game, all things considered. But as of the moment, the Under appears very realistic even if the pitching were mediocre. The offensive production of these 2 teams lately makes the Under very appealing.

Anyways, if you're looking for a Under play, the Dbacks/Nationals game appears one of, if not, the best. Others include the Indians' and Dodger's games.

Lastly, I won't use the word "gift" anymore when speculating the outcome of a game.

Okay, we'll reserve "gifts" for the holiday season I guess. I wish it was that easy.

I agree, about the two unders you've recommend. WASH can't hit and any Dodger game is a good bet to go under it seems. Betting over/unders can drive you crazy. I don't play them very much but every now and then I'll bet an under.

Good luck today Wilforth....

LT Profits · 07-10-08, 10:48 AM

Afternoon game in Philly. And the starters aren't THAT great.

Dbldown11 · 07-10-08, 12:04 PM

i find that when you look at a game and think that it will be relatively low scoring, or at least that the O/U line should come out fairly low, and it comes out the opposite you should strongly consider betting the opposite of what you originally thought, because there is obviously some reason it is so high. I had the same thoughts as you when i looked at this game that it would be low, but im on the over 10 now that ive seen the line.