Nats +180?

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  • BennyFang
    SBR MVP
    • 12-27-09
    • 1412

    #1
    Nats +180?
    -Jurrjens' velocity is down, something is up with him. Allowed 0 runs last outing vs Cubs but 13 baserunners in 6.1 innings.

    -Nats always play the Braves tough (6-6 this year, even better in recent seasons)

    -IMO the three day break will hurt the Braves' momentum and it might take a game or two for them to get the bats started (see Marlins, Phillies). Livan is the junkball type of pitcher that would be a nightmare for a "rusty" team to face.

    I just think +180 is a nice value here and/or Braves TT under 4.

    ....this coming from a Braves' fan that has seen most of their games this year.

    Wanted to solicit some thoughts before I made a decision.
  • thekidrounder
    Restricted User
    • 07-07-11
    • 126

    #2
    Nats strugglin scorin but still playin tough and hitting (16 hits in 5-4 loss sunday 14ish lob), lost a heartbreaker in 14 to cinn on sun, agree with all your points but would shy away from TT under 4 livan us a gascan, but watchin the mets florida game yesterday announcers were saying how coming back from 3 day break facing a junker (dickey) is alot harder than facing a fast ball pitcher (timing ect, not that they know anything but valid point nonetheless). Like the value here and sf not pressuring atl into must win situations I can see atl starting slow here as well. BOL
    Comment
    • Avenger
      SBR MVP
      • 03-15-11
      • 2119

      #3
      How about over?
      Comment
      • thebestthereis
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-01-09
        • 11459

        #4
        when betting this time of year make sure you calculate the choke factor. teams that need to win are tight and those that don't play with no pressure, much easier. be careful of big favorites based on stats or must win games. this line should not be -200 and the nats will win a game in atlanta this series. good luck!
        Comment
        • Coming Back!
          SBR MVP
          • 10-09-09
          • 1470

          #5
          Nats suck bro, I don't care if it was +280. They just suck. If they win, it's a fluke
          Comment
          • thebestthereis
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 03-01-09
            • 11459

            #6
            Originally posted by Coming Back!
            Nats suck bro, I don't care if it was +280. They just suck. If they win, it's a fluke
            100% agree and more if I could find more % somewhere. my point is the braves will choke like most teams do down the stretch when it matters and they need wins. laying -200 now is a major mistake more then ever. fyi, i don't care if it was +2800
            Comment
            • BennyFang
              SBR MVP
              • 12-27-09
              • 1412

              #7
              Originally posted by thekidrounder
              Nats strugglin scorin but still playin tough and hitting (16 hits in 5-4 loss sunday 14ish lob), lost a heartbreaker in 14 to cinn on sun, agree with all your points but would shy away from TT under 4 livan us a gascan, but watchin the mets florida game yesterday announcers were saying how coming back from 3 day break facing a junker (dickey) is alot harder than facing a fast ball pitcher (timing ect, not that they know anything but valid point nonetheless). Like the value here and sf not pressuring atl into must win situations I can see atl starting slow here as well. BOL
              Didn't know the Mets' announcers mentioned the same thing.....not that they would know much!
              Comment
              • PD77
                SBR MVP
                • 12-11-09
                • 2380

                #8
                I like the Braves at home. Too much chalk for me though. Although the Nats play the Braves tough, the Braves basically had the equivalent of an All-Star break for Irene. I say the rest does them good and they light Livan up, at least by the second trip through the batting order he makes his exit. On the road this game is a different story.
                Braves 9 Nats 3.
                Comment
                • JMUplayer
                  SBR MVP
                  • 08-27-09
                  • 2765

                  #9
                  I've been fading Jurrjens the whole 2nd half of the year.... he and Tomlin (Clev) have been gold to me
                  Comment
                  • BennyFang
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-27-09
                    • 1412

                    #10
                    Well I took Nats, Marlins, Tigers early....BOL!
                    Comment
                    • BIGDAY
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 02-17-10
                      • 48245

                      #11
                      On ATL RL @+110. I see a 5-2 ATL win. GL
                      Comment
                      • Dukebluejms
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-21-09
                        • 1633

                        #12
                        Nats or no play really. Braves at -190 is crazy. They've always struggled with Livan and JJ has struggled vs the Nats. Thinking about hitting thee under 9 pretty hard though.
                        Comment
                        • MrShrink
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-19-10
                          • 1054

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Dukebluejms
                          Nats or no play really. Braves at -190 is crazy. They've always struggled with Livan and JJ has struggled vs the Nats. Thinking about hitting thee under 9 pretty hard though.
                          yeah.. and wind coming in from right @ 8 mph
                          Comment
                          • Dukebluejms
                            SBR MVP
                            • 10-21-09
                            • 1633

                            #14
                            Originally posted by MrShrink

                            yeah.. and wind coming in from right @ 8 mph
                            A lot of lefties for the Bravos...
                            Comment
                            • lakerboy
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 04-02-09
                              • 94379

                              #15
                              great call
                              Comment
                              • BennyFang
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-27-09
                                • 1412

                                #16
                                Thanks buddy....BOL
                                Comment
                                • Monchito
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 08-20-11
                                  • 1928

                                  #17
                                  Gratz!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                                  Comment
                                  • PD77
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-11-09
                                    • 2380

                                    #18
                                    Nice call. Looks like you had a pretty good night!
                                    Comment
                                    • BennyFang
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-27-09
                                      • 1412

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by PD77
                                      Nice call. Looks like you had a pretty good night!
                                      Thanks...well 3-0 early, have Cubs, Dodgers, Rox late.
                                      Comment
                                      • hankcream
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 06-30-10
                                        • 2049

                                        #20
                                        Nice job
                                        Comment
                                        • face
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 01-31-11
                                          • 14740

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by BennyFang

                                          Didn't know the Mets' announcers mentioned the same thing.....not that they would know much!
                                          keith hernandez and ron darling were famous players, world series champions. they say all kinds of good stuff. great call on the nats man.
                                          Comment
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