mets game 1 goes from mets-130 to -108?

[bostonboss]

who the hell is taking the marlins here????.......i am guessing the books are trying to fish you in early to take the marlins.........

absolutely no reason to take them in this spot....the team has quit playing now for a month.....

[BigDofBA]

So have the Mets....

[bostonboss]

well according to sportsbook spy as predicted 99 percent are on mets -1.5 66 percent on mets moneyline.......books trying to get you to take florida.

[stingyrivers]

one of two things... some factor came up that changes the variables in the game (usually lineup)

or, a ton of money, and I mean a ton to move that much, went on the Marlins

Vegas moves a line based on money coming in... And for that much money to go on a team that the majority of bettors wouldn't bet like the marlins usually means it is "well informed" money...

In my experience, seeing a line move like this, you really have to consider taking the Marlins... think about it, there is absolutely no logical excuse for a line move like this, but it was made for a specific reason, I assure you that... So wouldn't you prefer to be on the side of whatever that reason is...

this opinion is coming from a guy who was about to go bet on the mets in about an hour... If I walk in and the line has dropped 25 cents, I am pissed bc now I dont know what I am going to do...

[bostonboss]

im sticking with the mets........according to my numbers.......everyone is on the mets.....i think they made this big drop in hopes of getting the public to think a big bet came in on the marlins......the sportsbook spy numbers do not add up......im sticking with the mets.

[stingyrivers]

I do know that as a general rule... books do not try to get you to bet anything, they make millions by keeping the action balanced...

I am 99% certain the books do not have an agenda on this game... they already had 99 % of the action on the mets according to your data, so with that result happening, they wouldnt need to change the line at all to get the whole world betting the mets for them

think about it bro... if they already have the world betting on the side they want all the bets on, why would they start making it cheaper to bet that side?? That only costs them money when they already have people paying 130 to bet the exact side "Vegas wants you to bet" why would they give their marks a rebate

[bostonboss]

because...if they made the mets -150 peiople would see the line increase and the public would follow the money............if u drop it.....it makes it look like money is in on the marlins....hoping the sheep follow......watch later on.......when vegas gets the money balanced they will put the mets back to -130

[LT Profits]

I bet Marlins +113 earlier and am in a nice hedge position if I want, but I won't because I think I have the best of it.

[Coming Back!]

I don't think you guys know what you're talking about.... No offense. I like the Mets, Reyes is back. Marlins sent down that kid (unless he's back, because he was a jackass, Hanley is out etc) Going w the Mets. Thoughts on the actual game?

[Coming Back!]

I bet Marlins +113 earlier and am in a nice hedge position if I want, but I won't because I think I have the best of it.

Really LT, Dickey is solid at home, Reyes back, Marlins have AAA lineup. I know the Mets have no bullpen. Why Fish today?

[bostonboss]

i like the mets

[BigDofBA]

This was an early line move. I doubt the "sheep" were taking Florida this early.

If big Money was coming in on the Mets, books wouldn't make them cheaper or big money would keep pounding them.

People over think things. Books make money either way. Game is a toss up. Line is about right. A little bit more money came in on Florida early probably bc Sanchez is pitching. Pretty simple really v

[Coming Back!]

They brought Morrison back up, my bad. And they do have a formidable lineup w Infante, Sanchez, Stanton, and company. Maybe the Fish are the play

[bostonboss]

they are sucking you in boys.........

[stingyrivers]

I would ultimately say... cap the game, whoever you like based on your research... pull the trigger... regardless of line move... the line movement doesnt change the results of your handicapping of the teams... if the result goes against your research, you just have to live with that and know you went about it correctly

my gut says mets win for some reason

[bostonboss]

there are talks that hanley ramirez will be back tonight.....regardless he wont be in top form...and i dont think he really cares anyway.

[Thurgood]

I'm on the Marlins


Will Reyes be back 100%? Dickey has a 3.97 era during the day, 1-8 at home and 1-3 in his last 4.

Anibal Sanchez has a 3.89 era away, 3.65 era during the day and is 4-4 vs the Mets this season. Greg Dobbs very good vs right handing pitchers, good away and good during the day. Gaby Sanchez, Morrison and Bonifacio all better bats away.

[Allure]

You don't have to bet on every game. Too many question marks, so just lay off.

[Thurgood]

I think a lot of people on this game because all the other games are later tonight.

[Thurgood]

Some other stats I noticed...

Willie Harris (5 AB) and Duda (1 AB) .000 batting averages vs Anibal Sanchez.

Gaby Sanchez 11 AB, 5 H, 3 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI vs Dickey
Infante 16 AB, 9 H, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI vs " "
Buck 4 AB, 2 H, 1 2B, 1 RBI vs " "
Bonifacio 4 AB, 2 H vs " "

[bostonboss]

reyes will not be in the lineup for game 1 but will be in lineup for game 2

[bostonboss]

mets lineup is out for game 1

pagan
tejada
wright
duda
bay
evans
thole
turner
dickey

[LT Profits]

Really LT, Dickey is solid at home, Reyes back, Marlins have AAA lineup. I know the Mets have no bullpen. Why Fish today?

Marlins lineup is underrated, Sanchez has been their best pitcher over the entire season and he has looked better lately after a bit of a rough patch, and Dickey is at his best in very hot weather because his knuckler dances more when it is humid. It is not that hot in NYC today.

[bostonboss]

but it is humid

[CHAZ]

but it is humid

36% humid? You call that humid lol? Come live in Houston for a day....

Check out these charts on Wakefields knuckler from a few years ago.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/5/5/866210/weather-effects-on-the-knuckleball

The knuckle ball does what it wants no matter what.

[Coming Back!]

I hear you LT. Seems like the Marlins are the play for game 1, especially since Reyes is out. But, the Marlins have had the Mets number for a while now and the Mets seem to win a few every time they look like they are going down in flames. Going to stick w the Mets! My logic sux, but we all know baseball isn't logical. If it was we'd all be typing from gold plated computers. I know, I'm not.

[No coincidences]

Marlins lineup is underrated, Sanchez has been their best pitcher over the entire season and he has looked better lately after a bit of a rough patch, and Dickey is at his best in very hot weather because his knuckler dances more when it is humid. It is not that hot in NYC today.

Anibal's won once in August and had one quality start in his last six appearances. The Marlins have won four times since Aug. 2.

[alexn]

I've been down this RLM path many times and I would say 8 times out of 10 the favorite loses or does not cover (basketball, football).

The average sports bettor does not know a lot about line movement so they don't over think things like this. The facts are right in front of you. The line started around -130 and has moved over 20 points with the majority of the public (number of bets, not $$$) on the Mets.

Vegas wants to keep the action balanced, because even they can't predict the game. Their objective is to come out 50/50 so they can maximize their risk to profit ratio.

If there are more bets on the Mets but more money on the Marlins they are going to lower the line so that more can take the Mets. This does not mean they think the Mets will lose and want everyone on the train so they can cash on this game. It means they need more money on the Mets to balance out all of the big money coming in on the Marlins in case the Marlins do win.

Some smart money is on the Marlins but that doesn't mean they are always right. However smart money is usually at least 60% right and I know that's better than the average gambler so I'll follow the smart money blindly any day.

[BigDofBA]

Guy above gets it.

[bradleysnyder]

this game is a coin flip

[ShogunRua]

I've been down this RLM path many times and I would say 8 times out of 10 the favorite loses or does not cover (basketball, football).

no.

[MrShrink]

I've been down this RLM path many times and I would say 8 times out of 10 the favorite loses or does not cover (basketball, football).

The average sports bettor does not know a lot about line movement so they don't over think things like this. The facts are right in front of you. The line started around -130 and has moved over 20 points with the majority of the public (number of bets, not $$$) on the Mets.

Vegas wants to keep the action balanced, because even they can't predict the game. Their objective is to come out 50/50 so they can maximize their risk to profit ratio.

If there are more bets on the Mets but more money on the Marlins they are going to lower the line so that more can take the Mets. This does not mean they think the Mets will lose and want everyone on the train so they can cash on this game. It means they need more money on the Mets to balance out all of the big money coming in on the Marlins in case the Marlins do win.

Some smart money is on the Marlins but that doesn't mean they are always right. However smart money is usually at least 60% right and I know that's better than the average gambler so I'll follow the smart money blindly any day.

[Thurgood]

Dickey threw 7 knuckle balls in a row... Only a matter of time before the Marlins get a read on it... Fastest one I saw was 81 mph

[bostonboss]

congrats met backers