Locks

[stingyrivers]

dumb title head to get people to look at this thread...

are any of you actually out here in Vegas with me??

by the way

Kershaw and Lincecum look like really solid bets tomorrow as a ML parlay

[ShogunRua]

Seems pretty square...

[stingyrivers]

you guys f'n make me laugh

okay... then bet on the Pads who got beat nicely by Keshaw four weeks ago and Wells who only gave up 8 HRs in last five starts... and be smarter than everyone... this forum is in large part a huge joke

dont know about you guys reality... but I been grinding a living off baseball all this season in vegas, at actual sportsbooks... and... by making mostly "square plays" just like Kershaw/Lincecum @ +115

[LovetoSpooge]

O rly?

[Sportsbetting123]

I usually dont do parlays in baseball but I see where you are headed with this one. Best of luck

[thebestthereis]

you guys f'n make me laugh

okay... then bet on the Pads who got beat nicely by Keshaw four weeks ago and Wells who only gave up 8 HRs in last five starts... and be smarter than everyone... this forum is in large part a huge joke

dont know about you guys reality... but I been grinding a living off baseball all this season in vegas, at actual sportsbooks... and... by making mostly "square plays" just like Kershaw/Lincecum @ +115

Can't argue the play really only thing I willmention is that wells and or any pitcher little or wherever they play can give up 8, 20, 4000 homeruns and if they face the giants it mean nada. The giants cannot hit ever. Nonetheless good luck!

[wade1]

One of those teams will lose, probably SF. ( Bookies love Parlays )

[thericker7]

It's hard though to go against Lincecum. Don't know if I would make it a parlay but would definitely throw a little on both games.

[BigDofBA]

If you ever take a favorite, you're a square on this site. It's pretty funny....

Anyway, both teams should win but the Giants cant hit and the Dodgers haven't been that great this season.

It's not impossible that one could lose.

[BigDofBA]

One of those teams will lose, probably SF. ( Bookies love Parlays )

Bookies love about 95% of the people that give them action.

[pacocn]

I prefer A's and Cws parlayed.

[Machine Choice]

Linecum gave up 6 runs to the Cubs in a game last year. So it can happen.

Kershaw seems dead solid, except that Latos is no slouch either. I think the Dodgers will win 4-2

[stingyrivers]

good points by everyone...

I take it nobody actually out here in Vegas?

I used to contribute on this forum but I stopped a long time ago... just been ghosting every once in a while since...

The everyday banter on here is silly sometimes, so much talk about what's "sharp" and whatnot... Let me tell you something, the Vegas books laugh at this type of talk... there is mild validity to some of it, but most here take it to a degree where it becomes a logical fallacy in that, you make things so sharp the play becomes square in that it is the cliche contrarian novelty of the day that every habitual sports bettor is on the play, (hmmm, wouldn't that be the public?)

that's another thing, most here talk about the public in the third person... got news for you, 99 percent of us are "the public" and the few of us that arent have a minimum 6 figure bankroll... Ever ask that? If everyone on here is so "sharp" why is everyone not loaded and not in need of a day job?

I dont have a day job, havent in years, and I grind a day to day living in Vegas betting sports primarily, and let me tell you something, it royally sucks, but I wouldnt prefer to be doing anything else, as was once said... Hardest way to make an easy living...

Sorry bout the rant, I mean to just say as some of you do, you guys really should work together more instead of bantering, fighting with each other and generally just making a spectacle of trying to seem smarter than the rest of the world... The ones that do that the most on here, I dare to come out to vegas, leave everything behind and try to grind a living purely with income from all your oh so sharp plays....

as for the play:

I definitely didnt imply the two teamer as any lock, just said it is solid, worth a one unit play in my opinion... I feel both pitchers win these games 3 of 4 times, which makes the play worth a shot @ +115, at least to me

I hate betting San Fran, and generally dont do it, I played Houston twice successfully in that last series, because SFG is a no hitting totally overrated team, they showed the level of team they are about even with in the last three games, if you take Lincecum off the giants in my opinion, they are the Houston Astros... I only bet the Giants with Lincecum, at home after a loss... that is a pretty solid play, knowing all the while betting it that SF may not score a run

side note... a poster brought up a good point, Lincecum career numbers are bad against the cubbies, I just like the situation of this game... some will learn, and others overlook that what is more important in baseball is the day to day situation is way more important than the numbers and stats from the past... and SD has yet to prove they can hit Kershaw at all...

so, anyone out in vegas? lol, I am just kind of curious if any of the population is actually out here grinding away day to day

[bostonboss]

not in vegas but i frequent about 3 or 4 times a yr......i run a business tough to get away in the summer....

[BigDofBA]

That was a great post.

I love when the majority of this forum falls in love with an ugly underdog because they think it's the "sharp" side.

I've seen many instances when most people on here were on a side they perceived as sharp.

FYI, if the majority of this board is on a play, it's not sharp.

Example, a few days ago the Twins were like +127 against the Tigers. I was on the Tigers, the favorite, but many people were saying Minnesota was one of the best plays on the board. Meanwhile, no one gave any reasons. Detroit won 8-1.

[BigDofBA]

As for your play, SD isn't hitting and LA is. Likewise, Kershaw is on the mound.

SF is in a must win spot with their ace on the mound. If you can't rely on them to win today, you can't bet them the rest of the year.

I think the play us solid by there is some risk involved. That's why it's called gambling.

[stingyrivers]

good points guys... I will be betting the play later today, knowing full well it has just as much chance to win as it does to lose... almost everybody on here are fairly intelligent guys... it would be nice to see the high school aspect disappear... and by and large, this forum is the public, maybe a slightly more intelligent faction of the public, but nonetheless the public... every favorite is not the square play, and exactly, every dog is not the sharp play... I remember that game with Minny, and yeah half the guys out here were thinking they were outsmarting the books lol... and were bitching later...

or how about, the Oswalt start against Washington last week the day after the Nats beat Philly again?? That was laughable, I sat at the book and watched the line drop all day from -235 to -160 in a certain book, because everyone was making that sharp play of the Nats because they 'own' Philly... yeah, I bet the Phils I believe the final was 11 to 1... don't overthink things guys, sometimes the win is actually just sitting there on a silver platter

hey Boston, cool to here you are able to get out here so much still... I am from the Boston area originally... Vegas is cool, and it is nice to be literally a block from 6 sportsbooks, but I wouldnt advise living out here to anyone, lol, the weirdest place I have ever been, and I been all around the country... Not the ideal spot to run in year round

[BigDofBA]

You should post more.

What you said about people trying to outsmart the books is absolutely true.

My picks are about 50/50 dogs and favorites but I love when some one on here picks a dog that loses and they still say it was the right side. Likewise, I'm a square even though I was on the favorite that won.

I've actually seen some people on SD tonight. I know anyone can beat anyone but I would like to know people's reasons for taking San Diego here. Saying LA is the square side isn't a good reason.

LA is playing better and San Diego I'd slumping again. Kershaw is pitching to and LA is at home

What could you possibly like in San Diego?

[stingyrivers]

I totally agree man...

I might start posting some more, I got frustrated with this forum many times, mostly because I would come here trying to get informed on solid plays and walk away confused... There is hardly ever a consensus on here, and when there is it is almost always one of those psuedo sharp plays...

I once said in a post here a long time ago... on any given play, I would rather be a square with a winning ticket than a sharp with a story...

I have no idea any justification to take SD tonight either, I could see if it was a week ago when the Pads briefly showed a spark of life, but they flat out suck again... Zona simply owned them the past few days with ease, and Kershaw is one of the top 5 pitchers in the league, and pitches well at home to boot...

only thing I can think of is those taking SD tonight are trying to think "outside the box" or they feel "Sd is due to wake up and finally hit Kershaw" and they are getting big plus money if they happen to be right...

Baseball wise and situationally, I am really trying to muster one up, and can't think of one solid reason to bet Sd

well, maybe one, Latos is a very decent pitcher, and at this big of plus money there is value... but even that is hard for me to swallow given Kershaw is his opponent... I could see that reason if anyone else were on the hill for the dodgers... and I actually like betting on SD and Houston anytime the opportunity presents itself... I like both teams scrappiness and 100% effort despite the disadvantage that they suck relatively in the league

[revnecro1273]

think san francisco has lost like 11 consective series openers

[mngambler]

good points by everyone...

I take it nobody actually out here in Vegas?

I used to contribute on this forum but I stopped a long time ago... just been ghosting every once in a while since...

The everyday banter on here is silly sometimes, so much talk about what's "sharp" and whatnot... Let me tell you something, the Vegas books laugh at this type of talk... there is mild validity to some of it, but most here take it to a degree where it becomes a logical fallacy in that, you make things so sharp the play becomes square in that it is the cliche contrarian novelty of the day that every habitual sports bettor is on the play, (hmmm, wouldn't that be the public?)

that's another thing, most here talk about the public in the third person... got news for you, 99 percent of us are "the public" and the few of us that arent have a minimum 6 figure bankroll... Ever ask that? If everyone on here is so "sharp" why is everyone not loaded and not in need of a day job?

I dont have a day job, havent in years, and I grind a day to day living in Vegas betting sports primarily, and let me tell you something, it royally sucks, but I wouldnt prefer to be doing anything else, as was once said... Hardest way to make an easy living...

Sorry bout the rant, I mean to just say as some of you do, you guys really should work together more instead of bantering, fighting with each other and generally just making a spectacle of trying to seem smarter than the rest of the world... The ones that do that the most on here, I dare to come out to vegas, leave everything behind and try to grind a living purely with income from all your oh so sharp plays....

as for the play:

I definitely didnt imply the two teamer as any lock, just said it is solid, worth a one unit play in my opinion... I feel both pitchers win these games 3 of 4 times, which makes the play worth a shot @ +115, at least to me

I hate betting San Fran, and generally dont do it, I played Houston twice successfully in that last series, because SFG is a no hitting totally overrated team, they showed the level of team they are about even with in the last three games, if you take Lincecum off the giants in my opinion, they are the Houston Astros... I only bet the Giants with Lincecum, at home after a loss... that is a pretty solid play, knowing all the while betting it that SF may not score a run

side note... a poster brought up a good point, Lincecum career numbers are bad against the cubbies, I just like the situation of this game... some will learn, and others overlook that what is more important in baseball is the day to day situation is way more important than the numbers and stats from the past... and SD has yet to prove they can hit Kershaw at all...

so, anyone out in vegas? lol, I am just kind of curious if any of the population is actually out here grinding away day to day

great post, and so true...just the other day I had Verlander vs Twins on RL and ohhh my how square was that bet, then to top it off the line shifts like 3 cents late with $ coming in on the Twins and now the supposed sharps are really calling it a horrible play, I just sit back and laugh and think how people often out think themselves...fact of the matter is you can run that game through all your "systems" and watch penny line mov'ts but at the end of the day its still justin freakin verlander against an imploding team who had lost like 6 or 7 in a row at that point, now granted they didn't crush them but they covered the RL on a day where Verlander had his worst start in 2 months (by his standards) the same bet under the same circumstances will prob. hit 4/5 times and that is all that matters in the end and I collected my $$

btw I'm also in Vegas multiple times per year, I'll be there in October and I usually hangout/bet at Caesars' sportsbook

[miguelj]

stingyrivers l like the way you think.the word for that is POSITIVE.

[revnecro1273]

think san francisco has lost like 11 consective series openers

looks like it is going to be 12 straight series openers lost

[illfuuptn]

How'd it feel to get your pussy smashed? Yeah...remember me?

[illfuuptn]

Make a thread where you post and track your losing plays. Don't worry, you can have a fresh start. Just take care of that bloody pussy.

[stingyrivers]

lol... I really appreciate all the posts... almost all of them were thoughtful and informative, Thanks for that guys... For those in Vegas, I live downtown, usually in Cortez everyday...

as for illfuuptin... I dont remember you, but do remember running into a whole bunch of Junior high guys in their 30's and 40's... I am assuming you were one of them... I remember having a long debate one night on here, it may have been you... At any rate... yeah, guess what, I lost a play LAD/SFG.. guess what, I throw away four or five tickets a day, however, I cash everyday too, its called sports betting for a living, let me know how you like it when you are actually doing it...

By the way, that was the last bet I make on San Fran the rest of the year no matter who is pitching... SFG proved to me with that loss they really do just suck and are no better than Houston and San Diego...

I hit a four team parlay on the late games last night... check out this square ass play... Dbacks, Dodgers, Angels and Cubs... got 11 to 1... and got me my Lincecum money back...

I will try to post here daily and use this as my thread, can't really promise every day as I am never good with that as far as online posting, I am usually at the book all day and not online, but usually up in the middle of the night so I will try to post here...

As for tomorrow, I am looking at doing these square ass plays...

In the morning (out here 10 am)

White Sox, Tigers

In the after noon:

4 team round robin (3's and 4's)

Phillies, Indians, Yankees Runline, Angels...


my opinion on each is: Phils, Cliff Lee generally lights out this month, and I like betting against the Reds as they beg for us to do that so much...

Indians pretty much just have the better pitcher, though Jiminez scares me a bit, but Cleveland needs to win against every last place team they face, and hoping Oaklands lull recently indicates they are entering a September slump especially rounding out a long road trip...

Yankees Runline... Been betting my gut on all redsox/yankee games, I had Sabbathia last night, square as hell and at a great price, oh and a square ticket that cashed (I must be so bad at betting sports)... My gut actually thinks the Yankees could shock fenway and win this straight up, Beckett very overrated and Yanks might be a little hungrier than the sox for this one, certainly looked that way last night, Sox stranded about 14 runners

Angels... I could be falling for a trap here... but I am going to fall for it hook line and sinker willingly (what a square)... Looking for Haren to have a nice bounce back in a game they truly cant afford to lose... I like King Hernandez, but he loses a lot of heart breakers pitching for a default AAA team in the majors, and his numbers are kind of bad against the Angels...

that's what I am going with today... All comments, thoughts and discussion is appreciated... even illfuuptin who apparantly had been waiting a year, counting the days to throw mud my way... congratulations bud