kansas city

[ryanXL977]

who has the balls to take kc monday
i want to hear someone with balls that big!

[MonkeyF0cker]

If I can get them at +200 or higher I probably will...

[darrell74]

who has the balls to take kc monday
i want to hear someone with balls that big!

"balls" or stupidity. I'm a jumpin on that run line when it opens, if I wake up in time.

[tab]

I really like KC +1.5. Its hard to win on the runline for 4 days in a row. Matt Garza has never won 3 straight vs the runline (-1.5 runs). Currently, Garza has won his last 2 starts against the runline (-1.5) by defeating the redsox 3-1 and the florida marlins 6-1. Meche has pitched well on the road. His numbers on road day games are decent. IF we take out Meche's one poor start on the road (day game vs the twins where he gave 6 runs in 5.2 innings), he has pitched well in his other road day games (4 starts, 26.1 innings, 8 earned runs). Meche is coming off a poor outing against the Orioles (6 innings, 5 runs, 4 earned, threw 89 pitches). Besides Pena (8 for 19, 3 hr, 2 doubles) and Crawford (5 for 16), the rest of the current Rays have not had much success against Gil Meche. Longoria has never faced him. I have to say that taking the Rays on the runline is somewhat risky. Seems like a lot of us jumping on the bandwagon of taking the rays -1.5 (+115).

[pat venditto]

degenerates. please explain why taking the royals is good?

[tab]

All I am saying is that taking the Rays -1.5 runs is not wise. All those taking the Rays on the runline are going to feel like degenerates. I just cannot take the rays on the runline. I would not take the royals on the ML either because the Rays will win a one run game.

[juuso]

It's all about the price. Meche is not bad at all and Kansas might very well get something done here. +180 is enough for me. My estimation 39% for KC win.

[pat venditto]

i agree meche isnt that bad and is capable of pitching well to give kc +180 slight value but it doesnt fit my formula.backing bad teams vs good teams is not wise if you're trying to win long term.

[juuso]

i agree meche isnt that bad and is capable of pitching well to give kc +180 slight value but it doesnt fit my formula.backing bad teams vs good teams is not wise if you're trying to win long term.

Sure, long shots come with bigger volatility. That's why I'll just bet small, but it's decent +EV IMHO.

Of course I prefer more probable bets on the whole and this is far from a game of the day or anything.

[darrell74]

"balls" or stupidity. I'm a jumpin on that run line when it opens, if I wake up in time.

I'm gonna stop the damn bleeding, today. Got a Rays run line +105.

[MonkeyF0cker]

i agree meche isnt that bad and is capable of pitching well to give kc +180 slight value but it doesnt fit my formula.backing bad teams vs good teams is not wise if you're trying to win long term.

That's just foolish thinking. The best teams in baseball win 60% of their games. If you don't think bad teams beat them, then who does? Baseball is all about value. The Rays are starting to become way overvalued and that mentality is much of the reason. That is why many of us who have been here a while clean up in the second half of the season betting almost entirely dogs. You will learn the hard way I guess...