Thursday

[BiffTFinancial]

this is a little strange, i'll admit, but just received this from my buddy who caps Aussie Rules and soccer. he's has been sizzling hot (5-1 last weekend, in stark contrast to my baseball picks), and a few people have expressed interest in his picks. since i'm done with baseball, it makes most sense to post them here until i'm posting football picks.

this opened at -2' on 5D this morning and has already moved to -3, so posting and booking now. will return to post any other plays that he has this weekend. BOL to all.

Avon -3 (Thursday, 7pm, Ohio High School Football). This game is available on 5D at -120. Avon beat Avon Lake last year, 21-3. Avon returns a number of their starters, including highly regarded Ross Douglas at TB (a junior already with a good offer sheet, including Tennessee). The Shoremen are have to replace nearly all their starters. While the Shoremen are traditionally a better program and should be able to do this with some success, I think it will take some time. I like Avon to win this one by 14 with their experience and speed. As a final note, High School lines on 5D move like the wind with nearly every wager. If $200 comes in Avon, the line may move up to 7 or 8. I think Avon is good up to at least 7, maybe 10.

[No coincidences]

Biff.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff.

he's been a man on a mission to confirm his read on this game all day. some of the emails that he's forwarded to me were hysterical. my favorite passage from one:

"Avon lost one of their best players in Bryan Cox Jr. who moved to Miami when his dad took a job with the Dolphins. However, they have a lot of returning players and a QB with experience and a RB who should run for 1,000. Avon Lake graduated 16 starters I believe."

[Glada Tartan]

Red Sox

[BiffTFinancial]

Avon now -6'

forecasting high school football line movement, the sweet science.

[broadway6]

why are you done with bases Biff?

[BiffTFinancial]

why are you done with bases Biff?

have you seen the Tribe lately?

just kidding. i've been scuffling for awhile, pissed away a lot of profits and time to turn my attention to football. still a bases neophyte with a lot to learn. only so many hours in the day, and better to focus on one thing that do two things half-assed. plus, really busy at work, so a good time time to take a break from daily grinding anyway. if i have free time the next few weeks, i'm going to try to sneak out on the goff course.

will be paying attention to the threads though as i want to see how some of the good bases cappers handle September and the playoffs, just done posting daily thread.

[pacocn]

biff, i like that tribe under 7.5 today, it has a lot of juice though

[BiffTFinancial]

biff, i like that tribe under 7.5 today, it has a lot of juice though

i can see why. Lou Marson is the Tribe's best hitter right now. i just checked out the flag, there's a very gentle breeze out, but should be 5-8 mph at most this afternoon, so probably not a big factor. 7.5 requires one of these two teams to score 4+, which makes under look solid. Hallion the ump leans under. my one concern would be that Santana is catching, which hurts the defense, but then again, it means Marson is on the bench. BOL whatever you decide, playing the over would be lunacy.

[pacocn]

Biff, any thoughts on the D bags and Nats under 7,
line opened at 7.5 and has dropped like a rock, like us
2 pitchers in good form, and D bags bats have been on
a hiatus?

[pacocn]

Lunacy was the play as it usually is.

[BiffTFinancial]

holy shit, the Tribe.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, any thoughts on the D bags and Nats under 7, line opened at 7.5 and has dropped like a rock, like us 2 pitchers in good form, and D bags bats have been on a hiatus?

without taking a long look at it, i'd lean under. i ran it through my spreadsheet quickly, i'd give it a range of 6.63-6.9.

did you play the Tribe under? i hope not.

[pacocn]

Biff, yeah i was on that tribe under, but wasn't hurt too badly put
it in a 5 team parlay. I also had Mariners +190

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, yeah i was on that tribe under, but wasn't hurt too badly put it in a 5 team parlay. I also had Mariners +190

gotcha. ouch. i couldn't believe that the Tribe was such a big chalk.

[Dexter]

gotcha. ouch. i couldn't believe that the Tribe was such a big chalk.

i saw your comment in tout boys thread.

ive seen you post here, and i can tell you would never run into the kind of drama that some self promoters do. my threads never have any bs, and neither do some of the other guys who fly under the radar.

you know your shit and a thread by you would be welcomed by many...

[BiffTFinancial]

i saw your comment in tout boys thread.

ive seen you post here, and i can tell you would never run into the kind of drama that some self promoters do. my threads never have any bs, and neither do some of the other guys who fly under the radar.

you know your shit and a thread by you would be welcomed by many...

hey, thanks a lot, Dexter. i genuinely appreciate that. am thinking about a CFB thread for the fall (rather than weekly threads like last year), have been deep in CFB prep since Sunday and can't wait for the season to start. you are right that there certain traits in a thread that are more likely to cause drama. let's just say that i have enough drama and discord in my daytime that i want to keep my handicapping time as chill as possible. BOL with your plays today.

[bostonboss]

high school football lol any lines to the little league world series or world tiddlywinks cup?

[face]

CFB thread for Biff

[BiffTFinancial]

high school football lol any lines to the little league world series or world tiddlywinks cup?

yeah, it does feel a little dirty. there are definitely lines on LLWS. 5dimes has all of that. i don't normally bet HS football, but this guy is hot so i'm tailing him here. if nothing else, i got it at -3 instead of -7 where it is now. i think that they only have lines on nationally televised games, and this game is being nationally televised via Fox Sports Ohio and other Fox affiliates. there are also two October games that will be nationally televised (Mentor/Solon, Don Bosco/St. Ed's).

[God1]

if there's ever a place where beating the books is probably easy it's high school football. the smaller and more obscure the market, the worse the books are

the line movement on the astros game today was as suspicious as anything I've ever seen. It got bet all the way up to +174 and was almost instantly back down to +165 after that move. This is the first time ever that I've seen a line move and assumed it was inside information betting. With wandy pitching against the team he's possibly being traded to and the ridiculous upshot movement happening this afternoon there is definitely some information being bet on that isn't public. Wandy being shelled and left in the game for a suspiciously long time has convinced me.

He was at almost 110 pitches facing wigginton with 1st and 2nd 1 out in a tie game and they leave him in. Wigginton's righty/lefty split is something like a .400 difference in OPS, forget the fact that wandy could've easily been pulled earlier

[Lloyd Smuggs]

Hey biff sorry to hear your hanging up your boots...I kinda felt the same way last week were my picks were simply awful ..but baseball is a really hard sport to be good at and I felt u was Doing well despite so bad picks...baseball is so bloody unpredictable....personally can't wait till the NFL season starts...done really well last year..such a shame its only on once a week...some real money to be made there

[BiffTFinancial]

Hey biff sorry to hear your hanging up your boots...I kinda felt the same way last week were my picks were simply awful ..but baseball is a really hard sport to be good at and I felt u was Doing well despite so bad picks...baseball is so bloody unpredictable....personally can't wait till the NFL season starts...done really well last year..such a shame its only on once a week...some real money to be made there

totals have been really rough since all-star break, especially unders, and that's what i prefer to play. i wish i'd shut it down just a week earlier. bottomline, i need time to prep for football, and if i'm betting bases, it won't get done. a sacrifice for the greater good, i say. BOL to you the rest of the way Lloyd.

[BiffTFinancial]

if there's ever a place where beating the books is probably easy it's high school football. the smaller and more obscure the market, the worse the books are

the line movement on the astros game today was as suspicious as anything I've ever seen. It got bet all the way up to +174 and was almost instantly back down to +165 after that move. This is the first time ever that I've seen a line move and assumed it was inside information betting. With wandy pitching against the team he's possibly being traded to and the ridiculous upshot movement happening this afternoon there is definitely some information being bet on that isn't public. Wandy being shelled and left in the game for a suspiciously long time has convinced me.

He was at almost 110 pitches facing wigginton with 1st and 2nd 1 out in a tie game and they leave him in. Wigginton's righty/lefty split is something like a .400 difference in OPS, forget the fact that wandy could've easily been pulled earlier

that Astros game was a tough beat. so, you think that he was left in long to showcase him for Rocks? the dynamics have definitely changed in baseball the past 6 weeks and the trade element definitely is part of that. next year, i'll anticipate it and deemphasize totals in the second half of the season, but i clearly still have a ton to learn.

i wouldn't want to specialize in high school football bets, but tailing someone who knows the game and beating the closer by 4 points is hardly the worst idea i've posted in the last few weeks.

[BiffTFinancial]

two more plays for this afternoon/overnight from my buddy Hand of God (HoG):

One Europa League play for this afternoon and one quick Aussie Rules play for early Friday morning to sandwich the much-anticipated Battle of Avon tonight.

Fulham-Dnipro OVER 2' at +119 (Thursday, 2:30pm). I hate wading into the Europa League because it is such a shit competition. That said, Fulham generally take it seriously, so I'm ok playing the Cottagers in the competition. In this match, Fulham is up 3-0 on aggregate, so it's difficult to predict how aggressively they'll go after the win. However, they know that a single away goal will guarantee advancing. Dnipro will have to attack, leaving plenty of counter opportunities for Fulham. Personally, I think Fulham wins (ML is at +220), but I like the over bet a bit more.

Collingwood -70' (Friday, 6:45am). A big-time fade Freo play. The Dockers are decimated with injuries and are trotting out total garbage. They haven't come close to covering since West Coast kicked them into a cover in Round 18. The Pies, meanwhile, are still playing to win the regular season premiership. After a dodgy outing in Adelaide, they'll want to ramp up the score to make sure they have the tiebreaker in hand if they should lose to Geelong next week. It won't exactly be a first choice Collingwood side, but it will be close. A 12-goal margin is a lot to ask, but the Pies have done it in 7 of their 19 wins this season and this Docker team is amongst the worst sides they'll play. I'll lay the points and hope for some straight kicking and continued Docker quittery.


2011 YTD
Aussie Rules: 19-7
Rugby: 3-0
Soccer: 8-6
CFL: 1-3

[kcburg]

two more plays for this afternoon/overnight from my buddy Hand of God (HoG):

One Europa League play for this afternoon and one quick Aussie Rules play for early Friday morning to sandwich the much-anticipated Battle of Avon tonight.

Fulham-Dnipro OVER 2' at +119 (Thursday, 2:30pm). I hate wading into the Europa League because it is such a shit competition. That said, Fulham generally take it seriously, so I'm ok playing the Cottagers in the competition. In this match, Fulham is up 3-0 on aggregate, so it's difficult to predict how aggressively they'll go after the win. However, they know that a single away goal will guarantee advancing. Dnipro will have to attack, leaving plenty of counter opportunities for Fulham. Personally, I think Fulham wins (ML is at +220), but I like the over bet a bit more.

Collingwood -70' (Friday, 6:45am). A big-time fade Freo play. The Dockers are decimated with injuries and are trotting out total garbage. They haven't come close to covering since West Coast kicked them into a cover in Round 18. The Pies, meanwhile, are still playing to win the regular season premiership. After a dodgy outing in Adelaide, they'll want to ramp up the score to make sure they have the tiebreaker in hand if they should lose to Geelong next week. It won't exactly be a first choice Collingwood side, but it will be close. A 12-goal margin is a lot to ask, but the Pies have done it in 7 of their 19 wins this season and this Docker team is amongst the worst sides they'll play. I'll lay the points and hope for some straight kicking and continued Docker quittery.


2011 YTD
Aussie Rules: 19-7
Rugby: 3-0
Soccer: 8-6
CFL: 1-3

damn soccer game moved to 2.5 +116..wondering if I still should play it..

[BiffTFinancial]

damn soccer game moved to 2.5 +116..wondering if I still should play it..

to be clear, he played it at 2.5. the apostrophe = the hook. so, the soccer over is 2.5, and Collingwood is -70.5.

[BiffTFinancial]

Avon, 24-0 at half. 5D has a 2H line. Avon -6' -150!

tried to check with HoG about a 2H play, but i think the play is no play.

[BiffTFinancial]

Avon, 38-7. easy winner. HoG now 1-0 in Lorain County high school football.

it is at this point that i'll admit playing that way bigger than i should've.

[Love The Action]

Avon, 38-7. easy winner. HoG now 1-0 in Lorain County high school football.

it is at this point that i'll admit playing that way bigger than i should've.

What up Biffer....where the hell do you get local high school action?

Does your local put up HS lines?

[BiffTFinancial]

What up Biffer....where the hell do you get local high school action? Does your local put up HS lines?

5Dimes has lines for all nationally televised HS football games. they have a bunch for this weekend. they even had a 2H line, which was juiced to -150, unreal. this just happened to be a game where HoG had some good intel. he is already at work gathering info for October games between Mentor/Solon and and St. Ed's/Don Bosco (NJ). couple of my friends live right next to Solon, we're having a tailgate for that one.

[Love The Action]

5Dimes has lines for all nationally televised HS football games. they have a bunch for this weekend. they even had a 2H line, which was juiced to -150, unreal. this just happened to be a game where HoG had some good intel. he is already at work gathering info for October games between Mentor/Solon and and St. Ed's/Don Bosco (NJ). couple of my friends live right next to Solon, we're having a tailgate for that one.

Hmmm...interesting. That's cool. What are limits. That has to be one of the few markets where you would actually have access to non-market information giving you guys a big edge. Wish I could tail....

Good luck

[BiffTFinancial]

Hmmm...interesting. That's cool. What are limits. That has to be one of the few markets where you would actually have access to non-market information giving you guys a big edge. Wish I could tail.... Good luck

100 per ticket, but i know a guy who booked 100 at -2', 100 at 3 and 100 at 5' and they were honored.

[BiffTFinancial]

two more plays for this afternoon/overnight from my buddy Hand of God (HoG): One Europa League play for this afternoon and one quick Aussie Rules play for early Friday morning to sandwich the much-anticipated Battle of Avon tonight. Fulham-Dnipro OVER 2' at +119 (Thursday, 2:30pm). I hate wading into the Europa League because it is such a shit competition. That said, Fulham generally take it seriously, so I'm ok playing the Cottagers in the competition. In this match, Fulham is up 3-0 on aggregate, so it's difficult to predict how aggressively they'll go after the win. However, they know that a single away goal will guarantee advancing. Dnipro will have to attack, leaving plenty of counter opportunities for Fulham. Personally, I think Fulham wins (ML is at +220), but I like the over bet a bit more. Collingwood -70' (Friday, 6:45am). A big-time fade Freo play. The Dockers are decimated with injuries and are trotting out total garbage. They haven't come close to covering since West Coast kicked them into a cover in Round 18. The Pies, meanwhile, are still playing to win the regular season premiership. After a dodgy outing in Adelaide, they'll want to ramp up the score to make sure they have the tiebreaker in hand if they should lose to Geelong next week. It won't exactly be a first choice Collingwood side, but it will be close. A 12-goal margin is a lot to ask, but the Pies have done it in 7 of their 19 wins this season and this Docker team is amongst the worst sides they'll play. I'll lay the points and hope for some straight kicking and continued Docker quittery. 2011 YTD Aussie Rules: 19-7 Rugby: 3-0 Soccer: 8-6 CFL: 1-3

soccer play lost, Aussie rules play won, so net push on these two since soccer was plus-money.

[kcburg]

any for today..