Saturday Value Plays

[fifawcs]

I went 1-3 -2.00 units yesterday.

Nationals +114
Pros: Redding has been the National's best pitcher. Josh Fogg has been awful with a 9.85 ERA. Although the National's offense has not been producing, I think tonight will be their night.

Cons: The Reds hit well at Great American Ballpark.

A's-White Sox Under 8.5 +100
Pros: Both teams are sending pretty good ptichers to the mound. Gavin Floyd has been excellent at home, with a 2+ ERA. Greg Smith has pitched well on the road, where opponent bat a mere .208 against him. The White Sox hit lefties poorly, batting a .235 collectively. The A's offense is without Frank Thomas or Eric Chavez, which will limit their offensive production.

[fifawcs]

Cubs +110
Pros: Ted Lilly is 4-2 with a 3.06 ERA versus the Cardinals, lasted seven innings in that May contest at Busch. The left-hander -- 4-0 with a 3.15 ERA in his last five outings -- gave up seven hits and both runs in eight innings of a 9-2 win at San Francisco on Monday. Though Lohse (10-2, 3.67 ERA) has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals since they signed him during spring training, he is 1-2 with a 5.92 ERA in five starts against Chicago.The right-hander allowed a season-high eight runs and nine hits in six innings of a 9-3 loss to the Cubs on May 3 as Fukudome went 3-for-5 with two RBIs off him.

For those who argue that Lohse has been hot through June going 5-0, you have a point. However, Lohse was also hot in April posting a 2.33 ERA and going 3-0. Then the first start of May against he Cubs at home, he gave up 8 earned runs in 6 innings. The pitcher was Ted Lilly. Expect a similar outcome to happen in his first start of July after such a great June.

Cons: The Cards have a good offense.