MLB Best Bets: Saturday July 5th, 2008

[Illusion]

Share your best bets for Saturday.

Please use American style pricing (Ex: -150 +130)

Make sure you post a line for all bets and good luck!

[rake922]

White Sox -130

[sickler]

Cubs with Lilly +101
Jays with Halladay +115

Both lines Pinny

GL folks

[Wilforth]

FYI
* Nothing is easier nowadays than fading the Yankees. The Yankees won't win a game until they're eventually disbanded.
* Don't fade a team on a winning streak until they regress into a losing streak. Don't also play a team on a losing streak until they reverse their regression. The pitching match-ups don't matter much anymore.
* The Marlins' bullpen is no better than a cowpen.

Red Sox +120
Athletics +115
Phillies -115
Twins -130
Marlins/Rockies Over 11 (-105)
Pirates/Brewers Over 9 (-125)

[pat venditto]

Nationals +140
Texas +120
Twins -125
Red Sox/Yankees Under 9.5 (-110)

1-3 yest gl to anyone who follows his advice

"The pitching match-ups don't matter much anymore." dumbest statement ever.

[Wilforth]

1-3 yest gl to anyone who follows his advice

"The pitching match-ups don't matter much anymore." dumbest statement ever.

Pat, What else do you want me to say? Is it not choices based on pitching match-ups that made me go 1-3 yesterday? When Haren and the Dbacks at home against the Padres can't be relied upon anymore, what else do we say? When Buehrle and the White Sox turn gray against Blanton, what do we say? When the Marlins score 17 runs and still get beaten, what do we say? When a game between Lowe and Sanchex produces 17 runs, where else do we hope to find a secure Under play? Please let me voice my frustration whichever way I can.

[so-classy#23]

DET -135
CWS/OAK UNDER 8.5
TAM -140
MIN -125

GEEZ TOR/LAA UNDER is so appealing but the margin for error with a total at 7 is so small I'm hesitant...Not much dominating pitchers in today's games..I can count them on a couple hands and these two guys are two of the best...It should be right around that total exempting any freak incidents at the BIG A at night...

[Augustus]

10* Minnesota -121
10* LA Dodgers -123
10* Detroit -130

[nysmoneyman]

12-15 yesterday

cubs/cards over 8.5 (-110)
blue jays/angels OVER 6.5 (-125)...happens every time...the UNDER should come in and doesn't
boston/yankee under 9.5 (-125)
washington/reds over 9.5 (-120)

twins -132
tigers -142
dodgers -131
tampa bay -141
angels -132
brewers -152
boston +1.5 runs (-170)

twins total team runs over 4 (-125)
dodgers total team runs over 4.5 (-110)
brewers total team runs over 4.5 (-120)

blue jays/angels...no run in the 1st inning (-140)

parlay...boston +1.5 runs -170/twins -131 = (+180)

live betting on bodog...i bet every time the pitcher is going to get an out(nothing else)...if i lose then i double up and then again...(boring way to make $$$ but my account grows)...u must start small and over the 9 innings have ended up with plus money...made money with fridays boston/yankee game...thank u john lester and last nites cubs/cards game...thank u ump behind the plate...good luck

***must be smart about it...get a feel for the game and know when a pitcher starts falling apart back off

boston/yankee...live betting...3:55pm LOST $1
mets/philly...live betting...7:05pm

from 3:55pm to 9:45pm i'm locked in

[LT Profits]

Astros/Braves UNDER 9 +105 (BetJamaica)
Indians/Twins UNDER 8.5 -125 (WSEX)
Dodgers -125 (BetJamica)
Blue Jays +116 (Bookmaker)
Blue Jays/Angels UNDER 6.5 +105 (BetJamaica)

[Clueless_Norway]

D'Backs +107
Brewers RL +130
Cardinals -120

- The Padres are 4-12 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 3-14 in their last 17 overall, 0-5 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series, and 0-6 in their last 6 games as a favorite. The Padres are also just 1-5 in Peavy's last 6 starts.
- The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in Davis' last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, 6-1 in Davis' last 7 starts as a home underdog, and 19-5 in Davis' last 24 home starts.

- The Pirates are 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in Milwaukee and just 18-46 in their last 64 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600..
- The Brewers are 5-1 in Bush's last 6 home starts and 6-1 in their last 7 vs. the National League Central.

- The Cubs are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a road underdog, 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win, and 3-8 in their last 11 road games.
- The Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 Saturday games, 6-0 in Lohse's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 4-0 in Lohse's last 4 home starts, and 8-1 in Lohse's last 9 starts.

GL all

[t-bone]

Rockies/Marlins (Total runs, hits, and errors)

Over 25.5

[darrell74]

Went a little crazy, but I got alot, and microanalysis for all:
MIn-1 1/2 & TB -1 1/2 parlay 2 units win 8
1 unit Hou/Atl over 9 1/2 +100
1 unit Chc/StL Under 8 1/2 -115
2 units Mil + 145
1 unit Fla/Col over 11 -125
1 unit Lad -133
1 unit Bos +114
1 unit CWS -143
1 unit TB-1 1/2 +145
1 unit Minn - 1 1/2 +150
1 unit LAA -1 1/2 +175
2 units Det -1 1/2 +120
TB -1 1/2: Rays piling up runs and Sonnanstine is 3-0 in his last four
Bos: Mussina can't beat the Red Sox, 0-3. 0-2 in last 3 home starts.
CWS: Gavin Floyd is good. (Alright, pisspoor analysis, their)
Mil -1 1/2: Mil 17-7 vs lefties. Pirates bully has thrown16 innings in last 3 games.
Hou/Atl over 9 1/2: Redding over last three, Fogg over last two and just returning from the dl.
Minn -1 1/2: Minn last 4 wins by 2 or more runs. Slowey 4-0 in last 4 and only 3earned runs. Laffey 1-2 in last 4 and 10 earned runs.
Fla/Col over: They've gone over in last 5 meetings. Both starting pitchers have gone over in last two starts
Det -1 1/2: Dickey is 0-3 at home, last three. Gallaraga 3-0 last 5, and the Tigers give good run support to Gallaraga.
Lad: Zito has been the "gambler's best friend," as of late. 0-4 last 4 at home. SF 5-17 last 22. Park is 2-0, last two.
LAA: Lackey 5-0 last 5 and pitches 7+ in all last 5 and giving up 1 earned run in last 5. Halladay is 5-5 in so cal.
Good luck to all.
I studied today's games for about three hours, because I felt I've been too lazy, recently, on my picks.

[fifawcs]

Nationals +130
A's-White Sox Under 8.5 +100
Cubs +110

[BuddyBear]

D'Backs +107
Brewers RL +130
Cardinals -120

- The Padres are 4-12 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 3-14 in their last 17 overall, 0-5 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series, and 0-6 in their last 6 games as a favorite. The Padres are also just 1-5 in Peavy's last 6 starts.
- The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in Davis' last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, 6-1 in Davis' last 7 starts as a home underdog, and 19-5 in Davis' last 24 home starts.

- The Pirates are 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in Milwaukee and just 18-46 in their last 64 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600..
- The Brewers are 5-1 in Bush's last 6 home starts and 6-1 in their last 7 vs. the National League Central.

- The Cubs are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a road underdog, 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win, and 3-8 in their last 11 road games.
- The Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 Saturday games, 6-0 in Lohse's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 4-0 in Lohse's last 4 home starts, and 8-1 in Lohse's last 9 starts.

GL all

Well done in your analysis CN. The one other thing I would mention is that SD is pitiful against left handed starters this year to the tune of 9-20 (-12.7 units)

[darrell74]

D'Backs +107
Brewers RL +130
Cardinals -120

- The Padres are 4-12 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 3-14 in their last 17 overall, 0-5 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series, and 0-6 in their last 6 games as a favorite. The Padres are also just 1-5 in Peavy's last 6 starts.
- The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in Davis' last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, 6-1 in Davis' last 7 starts as a home underdog, and 19-5 in Davis' last 24 home starts.

- The Pirates are 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in Milwaukee and just 18-46 in their last 64 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600..
- The Brewers are 5-1 in Bush's last 6 home starts and 6-1 in their last 7 vs. the National League Central.

- The Cubs are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a road underdog, 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win, and 3-8 in their last 11 road games.
- The Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 Saturday games, 6-0 in Lohse's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 4-0 in Lohse's last 4 home starts, and 8-1 in Lohse's last 9 starts.

GL all

Good breakdown, Clueless. Go Milwaukee and the run line

[darrell74]

1 more unit of action, 7 teamer. 1unit for 76.912 units
Chc/Stl under 8 1/2
Mil
Fla/Col over
Bos +1 1/2
LAD
TB
Minn
LAA
You never know, it could hit.

[darrell74]

1 more unit of action, 7 teamer. 1unit for 76.912 units
Chc/Stl under 8 1/2
Mil
Fla/Col over
Bos +1 1/2
LAD
TB
Minn
LAA
You never know, it could hit.

scuse me, 8 teamer

[Bet Shooter]

Und Ariz 8 -120 everywhere
Ov Col 11.5 -110 Everywhere
Und Ariz 8 -120 Everywhere
Ov SF 8.5m -125 Book or Greek

[louisvillekid]

#921 Oak +127
#926 Minn -130
#929 Det -136
#914 Ari +105

[ryanXL977]

twins-133 x 10
phils-110 x 10
rays-145 x 10

texas -102 x 5
stl -115 x 5
bosox+130 x 5
milw over 4.5 -115 x 5
tb over 4 -115 x 5
dodgers -130 x 5
lad first five -0.5 +105 x 5

[BuddyBear]

St. Louis -113
NY Yankees -134
Philadelphia -116
Milwaukee -147
White Sox's -135
LAA -121
Arizona +105

[thejrichshow85]

st louis -110
bos under 9.5

[johnnymapalo]

Detroit -1.5 (+120)
Phillies -1.5 (+170)
Pirates/Brewers under 9 (+105)
Twins -1.5 (+155)
Nationals +1.5 (+170)
Dodgers vs San Francisco over 8.5 (-125)
Yankees vs Boston under 9.5 (-115)

[watertight]

mets/philly u9 +105
nats+123
lad-125
miny-130
ari+105

[rb4033]

Cubs +114
Pirates +140
Astros +149
Padres -113
SF +118

at pinnacle

GL to all!

[Illusion]

Friday 07/04/08 Results:

Hip2Bsq: 2-0 +3.00
The HOFF: 2-0 +3.00
ManOfValue: 3-1 +2.00
louisvillekid: 4-2 +1.54
LT Profits: 2-1 +1.00
BuddyBear: 2-1 +1.00
ZBOIZ: 1-1 -0.10
Perl: 2-2 -0.45
fifawcs: 1-2 -1.00
onlòóker: 0-1 -1.00
head_strong: 0-1 -1.00
Checkerboard: 0-1 -1.00
Marigold HD: 0-1 -1.00
EaglesPhan36: 0-1 -1.00
blittydeuce: 1-2 -1.57
Illusion: 0-1 -1.60
robmeg34: 1-3 -1.75
Mr Nuts: 0-2 -2.00
Wilforth: 1-3 -2.10
woodg8: 3-4 -2.21
watertight: 1-3 -2.39
rb4033: 1-3 -2.78
soni: 0-5 -5.00
nysmoneyman: 12-15 -10.72
ryanXL977: 2-6 -25.50

*Parlays are not reflected in the results*

[Mr Nuts]

White Sox -138

[blittydeuce]

Rays -140
Twins -130
Wsox -130

[sickness]

TB
MIN
MIL

all moneyline.

[Dazzez]

Arz +1.5 -153

[ManOfValue]

Phillies -109
Padres -113
B-Jays +114

[EaglesPhan36]

Pirates/Brewers OVER 9
Despite a low ERA, Dave Bush's home starts have found the OVER in 6 of 7. His home starts are averaging over 11 runs per game. Bush was already pummeled by PIT back in May for 6 ER an 8-4 Pirates win. Maholm has been pretty solid of late, but still owns a 1-5 mark on the road with an ERA over 5. His road starts are averaging just a tick under 11. PIT & Maholm have been punching bags for the MIL offense. In Maholm's last 3 vs. MIL, the Pirates have lost 7-2, 10-0 & 7-3. MIL is absolutely pounding lefties right now as well to a .323 clip in their last 10. 8 of the last 10 meetings in MIL have gone over.

[Hip2Bsq]

Twins 2units @ -132 1unit @ +155 -1.5 RL

[The HOFF]

3 winning days in a row. Time to start fading my picks. Not a whole lot I like today but I'll throw out a couple.

CHI WSOX -139 (1 UNIT)
KC/TB ov8 -115 (2 UNITS)

OVERALL 5-2 (+6.44)