Front Page Picks (Thu, Jul 3)

[Willie Bee]

Chalk up LA Dodgers -125 at Astros

Game Time: 07/03/2008 02:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Dodgers won the last two games here in Houston vs. the Astros, and an apparent pitching mismatch has them on the verge of winning this series. Billingsley has held his form while Backe has not improved.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have taken the last two games of this four-game series with the Houston Astros, and we look for LA to win the road series this afternoon, given this pitching matchup.

Chad Billingsley deserves much better than his 7-7 record, considering that he has a nice 3.38 ERA in 96 innings, and he is averaging better than one strikeout per innings with 102 punch-outs. He has held his fine form with a sparkling 1.96 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his last three starts, and he has done his best pitching in the daytime this year, with a 2.83 ERA in six starts under the sun.

Meanwhile, Brandon Backe is 5-8 with a 5.12 ERA and a terrible 1.61 WHIP for the year, and the worst part is that he is not really improving. He has just one Quality Start in his last six outings after getting beat up for six earned runs on nine hits in 5.1 innings last Saturday night.

Finally, the Dodgers also rank third in the major leagues with a 3.05 bullpen ERA, while the Astros are at number 22 with a 4.19 pen ERA.

Free Pick: Dodgers -125

[Willie Bee]

Dodgers -128 at Houston Astros

Game Time: 07/03/2008 02:05 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | phoenixsports.com

The Dodgers have come to life at the plate in this series averaging close to 10 hits per game, and they should prove too tough for Astros right-hander Brandon Backe this afternoon.

I'm laying the price with the Dodgers against the Astros in Houston on Thursday afternoon.

Los Angeles lost the first game of this series on Monday, but there was a positive in that game the shed some light on the hitting slump they were stuck in. Joe Torre's club finished the game with 11 hits, despite scoring just one run. The hit-breakout was good news to build upon. After all, the Dodgers had a grand total of three hits and one run in their previous two games against the Angels. So, over the last three games, including two straight wins, Los Angeles has 29 hits...almost 10 per game.

Today, I expect another strong performance at the plate facing Brandon Backe. The Houston righty has not fared well in day action this season or in home starts overall, for that matter. The last two teams that faced Backe in Houston (Boston, Milwaukee) each finished the game with 10 runs. Backe allowed 11 earned runs and 21 base runners in just 9.1 IP, for a 10.65 ERA and 2.26 WHIP.

I mentioned Backe's poor daytime numbers and I wasn't exaggerating. The veteran righty has been smacked for a 5.33 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and .294 BAA in five afternoon starts this season. Believe it or not, that ERA is actually over one run better than his career daytime mark.

Chad Billingsley has been hotter than the daytime sun in afternoon action. He owns a 2.33 ERA in six day starts this season. In his last 11 starts overall, the right-hander has allowed just 20 earned runs and 85 base runners in 68.1 IP for a 2.64 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. When Billingsley takes the bump, the Dodger hitters only need be adequate. Against Backe, they'll likely be much more than that! Look for the suddenly hot Dodgers to make it three straight wins. Los Angeles is the play on Thursday afternoon.

Free Pick: Dodgers -128

[Willie Bee]

San Francisco Giants -128 vs. Chicago Cubs behind Lincecum

Game Time: 07/03/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

San Francisco has brought the bacon home in six of Tim Lincecum's last eight starts, and that will be seven of nine after the Giants dispatch the Chicago Cubs today.

When the Giants send Tim Lincecum up against Sean Gallagher and the Cubs today they'll do so knowing San Francisco is 11-5 in Lincecum's team starts this season.

The Giants have won six of his last eight starts and he is coming off a seven inning performance in which he struck out 11 and allowed no runs. With Lincecum 4-1 in July and 4-1 on Thursday in his MLB career, look for Gallagher to remain winless (0-5 5.06 ERA) on the road in his MLB career starts here today.

Free Pick: Giants -128

[Willie Bee]

Baltimore Orioles -135 vs. Royals

Game Time: 07/03/2008 07:35 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Baltimore has owned Kansas City of late, taking 17 of the last 20 meetings between the two clubs. Get on the Orioles tonight when they close out their series with the Royals.

Our Thursday night MLB selection is on the Baltimore Orioles home at Camden Yards over the Kansas City Royals.

The O's look to take this four-game series against the Royals and if they do, then don't look now but Baltimore may be only seven games back and in a virtual dead heat with New York for the third place spot in the AL East. Not bad for a team that most people thought would probably finish in last place and were likely to have one of the worst overall records in the American League.

Barring a disasterous second half, that isn't going to happen, despite the fact that most fans probably couldn't name half of their starting lineup these days. If Baltimore could play better on the road, they would be a serious contender this season. Even better, if Baltimore could play only the Royals, they would have the best record in baseball. Few series have been more one-sided than this one in the past three seasons. The Orioles are now 17-3 in their last 20 contests against this squad, and really haven't had much of a better team than KC has on paper in recent years to justify such a lopsided tally.

Baltimore's starters have probably been their biggest positive surprise so far in '08 and they should get a very big boost from the return of young lefty Adam Loewen, although Baltimore is reporting that he will pitch out of the bullpen and not rejoin the rotation. One of the reasons they are able to do this is due to the performances of some other surprising youngsters, like tonight's southpaw starter, 24-year-old Garrett Olson. Take the Orioles.

Free Pick: Orioles -135

[Willie Bee]

Pettitte, New York Yankees -125 vs. Boston Red Sox

Game Time: 07/03/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

The Red Sox are in a rut after being swept by the Rays, and now have to face a Yankees hurler in Andy Pettitte they've struggled against. Play New York tonight.

The Boston Red Sox just got swept by the Tampa Bay Rays in a three-game set down in Florida, and now they have to come into the unfriendly confines of the Bronx Zoo to play their longtime rivals the New York Yankees.

Needless to say, getting knocked down in three straight to Tampa Bay was a blow to their pride and confidence. Thats not a good omen for Boston's chances tonight against a Yankees team that smashed out 16 hits and 18 runs in a double-digit win last night against Texas.

Bottom line: With the Yankees sending one of their most consistent starting pitchers, Andy Pettitte, to the hill tonight, I expect the Zoo Crew to have the edge!

Final Notes & Key Trends: Pettitte is 4-0 in his last four starts along with a stingy 1.00 ERA. The Red Sox are 1-7 in their last eight series openers. The Yankees are 5-0 in Pettitte's last five starts and 4-0 in his last four starts vs the Red Sox. Play on New York.

Free Pick: Yankees -125

[Willie Bee]

Lincecum, Giants -130 vs. Cubs

Game Time: 07/03/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Cubs are scuffling right now and facing Giants right-hander Tim Linececum won't help them get back on track. Side with San Francisco Thursday when they host Chicago.

The Chicago Cubs have lost seven of their last nine road games and are 2-12 in their last 14 games as a dog of +110 to +150. The Cubs have lost Sean Gallagher's last four starts as well as his last five road starts.

The San Francisco Giants have won five of their last six games in which they've been installed as the favorite. San Francisco has won six of Tim Lincecum's last eight starts and five of his last seven home starts. San Fran is 7-3 in his last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Free Pick: Giants -130

[Willie Bee]

Washington Nationals +140 to upset Cincinnati Reds & Cueto

Game Time: 07/03/2008 07:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

John Lannan came back to earth in his last start, but he should do well again here vs. a Reds lineup hitting .212 vs. lefties the last 10 games, and at a nice price too.

We cashed a nice ticket playing against John Lannan of the Washington Nationals in his last start, feeling that he had been pitching over his head, but we actually think this is a nice spot for Lannan to succeed at a nice price vs. the Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds have struggled vs. left-handers in recent years, and after showing some improvement this season, they have reverted to their old ways lately, batting just .212 vs. southpaws over the last 10 games. Lannan did face the Reds once last season, and he pitched well allowing two runs in 5.2 innings of a 7-2 Nationals victory.

Now we have no doubt that Johnny Cueto will be a stud in this league for years to come, and he is certainly in raging current form, allowing only three earned runs in 18.1 innings over his last three starts. But still, he is just 6-8 with a 4.68 ERA for the season, so we are not sure he is quite worthy yet of this much favoritism.

We will go for the value play here, as we look for Lannan to regain his good for vs. a lefty-laden Reds lineup.

Free Pick: Nationals +140