MLB 6-Pack Thursday (4-2 AGAIN on Wednesday)

[LT Profits]

Dodgers -121 (BetJamaica)
Brewers +148 (5 Dimes)
Cubs +121 (5 Dimes)
Cubs/Giants UNDER 7 +105 (DSI)
Nationals +140 (5 Dimes)
Tigers/Mariners UNDER 8.5 +103 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 141-144-2, 49.5%, +5.57

[BuddyBear]

hmmm....i really disagree here with MIL. In fact, I am ready to make a bigger than normal play on ARIZ. When I went to bed it was -157 and I was hoping it would get to < -150 but it shot up in the -164 or so unfortunately so I may just make it a regular play but still deciding.

There is no comparison between Manny Para and Brandon Webb. This line should be much closer to -200 and the only reason it is even remotely close to -160 range is the Ariz team and offense has been slumping. To begin, this is the final game of a 10 game road trip for MIL and they've already locked up 5 wins which means they've secured a non-losing trip which is great when you play @ATl, @MINN, and @ARIZ. I wouldn't be surprised if Ned Yost sends out the B lineup this afternoon. Second, teams on the last day of a 2> series road trip are major major fades. I think if you had followed that all year long you would be up > 30 units this year.


Finally, the most important consideration comes today in the pitching matchup. Manny Para has been hot but he is still basically a rookie and you look closer at the numbers, you'll find them to be not so spectacular outside a few nice outings. He carries a season WHIP of 1.546 (compared to Webb's 1.134) and when you look at his road ERA and WHIP of 5.77 and 1.777 respectively (which includes 7 shutout innings at MINN last SAT....he's had 7 road starts too so he's had several opportunities to distinguish himself on the road), you'll see that backing Para on the road is something of a big risk here. Moreover, Webb's numbers are consistent at home (3.88 and 1.151 respectively). Now, true, he has struggled recently but if you look at his last 3 starts, he had two really poor outings and both were against AL teams (OAK and MINN). Yes MIL features a more potent offense than either of those two teams, so that would be a concern. And yes, MIL has done well in day games and has a number of other positive trends but I just can't overlook the discrpency in the pitching matchup in this game.

To me, Webb is a much much better pitcher than Para. I watch or listen to almost every MIL game so I know this team very very well. I can understand if this game was in MIL and you liked Para at odds of like +125 or so, but this game is the end of a 10 game road trip against one of the leagues' best. Look for a strong bounce back from ARIZ today.

Good luck LT.....

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't think MIL is a half bad pick at the price. Parra has a clean day record of 5-0 & the D-Backs have struggled vs. lefties lately. Agreed that Webb is better than Parra, but Webb is better than pretty much 99% of the league. Glad to see LT gettin' hot in baseball after a struggle!

[fifawcs]

It could go either way. And buddy bear, the Brew Crew will not send out a B lineup. That would be stupid for a team that is trying to win the NL Central.

[BuddyBear]

It could go either way. And buddy bear, the Brew Crew will not send out a B lineup. That would be stupid for a team that is trying to win the NL Central.

don't be surprised to see two of the regulars sit out the game. Again, I watch almost all MIL games and see the patern of lineups that Yost sends out. He usually gives his starters days off at the tail end of a road trip/homestand especially with a day game tomorrow you'll likely see one big bat have the day off.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wouldn't be shocked if Fielder sits. The Vegan is in a slump again.

[rake922]

Chris Snyder placed on disabled list with testicular fracture

[EaglesPhan36]

WTF? Them things can fracture? I thought they'd just rip.

[Doc JS]

WTF? Them things can fracture? I thought they'd just rip.

EP,
You never heard of "bust a nut"???

doc

[chipski]

like both your unders

[Doc JS]

LT,
Looks like you hit the Brewers/D'Backs game right on the head. Nice call!

Doc

[dwaechte]

Great start in the afternoon games.

[ertl09]

someone spoke too soon, why do people have to say stuff so early, it just annoys the hell out of me especially when its in earlier innings and people are saying the games over.

[BuddyBear]

Damn, I should have gone all in today on that ARIZ game.

But seriously, I just got home and I left the lib when it was 5-0 in the top of the 8th and was thinking on the bus ride home that I got to give LT some props for taking MIL b/c this was a game I planned on fading them for the past week and felt that they were totally the wrong side. Turned out they were clearly the right side...i am curious to see how this happened now. I'll have to read the in-game reports.

[dwaechte]

Yup, spoke too soon.

[LT Profits]

Torres had nothing and didn't retire a batter. Faced seven hitters, six hits and a walk.

[Pick'nParlays]

LT, your the man. But I wouldnt bet against Lincecum. He seems to
legit at the moment.

[LT Profits]

Oh I love Lincecum, but I just thought +121 was too good to pass up for the far superior overall team. I have always said that starting pitching is overvalued in the betting line, and starting pitching was the ONLY area where he Giants had the edge Thursday.

Oh well, forgettable 1-5 day. On to Friday.

[Doc JS]

LT,
Looks like you hit the Brewers/D'Backs game right on the head. Nice call!

Doc

LT,
My bad! I posted the above when it was 5-0 going to the bottom of the ninth! Thought you had a winner for sure. I was stunned when I saw the highlights of the comeback later on SportsCenter.

Doc

[pokernut9999]

LT,
My bad! I posted the above when it was 5-0 going to the bottom of the ninth! Thought you had a winner for sure. I was stunned when I saw the highlights of the comeback later on SportsCenter.

Doc

Thanks a lot Doc

I will blame you for that loss

You should know better

[Doc JS]

Thanks a lot Doc

I will blame you for that loss

You should know better

The dreaded DOC JINX !!!!