New project: totals

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1
    New project: totals
    I fvcking hate baseball totals with a passion -- I think they're very flukish and you have to be incredibly lucky to win long-term playing them.

    So what am I going to do? See if I can beat my fear into submission. At worst, this thread might become a fade machine that you can really make some money on the opposite side of what I play.

    Monday (8-15)....

    Plays:
    LAD/MIL under 8.5
    TEX/LAA over 8.5


    Leans:
    NYY/KC under 9.5
    FLA/COL over 10.5
    StL/PIT over 8.5


  • Duby
    SBR MVP
    • 01-26-09
    • 3608

    #2
    I feel the exact same way. Lol

    Best of luck!
    Comment
    • Blind Monkey
      SBR High Roller
      • 06-30-11
      • 217

      #3
      Plays:
      LAD/MIL under 8.5
      TEX/LAA over 8.5

      Leans:
      NYY/KC under 9.5
      FLA/COL over 10.5
      StL/PIT over 8.5
      LAD/MIL should hit
      TEX/LAA should hit
      NYY/KC should hit
      FLA/COL should go under
      STL/PIT should go under

      BOL
      Comment
      • borednaz
        SBR MVP
        • 08-28-10
        • 3809

        #4
        Ok coin I like your approach to things, your a solid capper but totals arent your thing because you approach them like you cap teams individually.

        First you need to take each team for their true state, how many runs do they normally get & adjust from there. Be honest & not blinded by a few games. Then ask yourself how many runs would each team realistically need to put up to win if everything was vanilla & even.
        Comment
        • HoulihansTX
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 02-12-09
          • 30566

          #5
          This would be a better thread if you took every game, and flipped a coin.

          It would work as a continuation of your hypothesis stated above.
          Comment
          • borednaz
            SBR MVP
            • 08-28-10
            • 3809

            #6
            Blind is actually spot on , with the exception of Kc/ny because that is a coin flip depending on if AJ gives up enough runs. Since Aj is always a schitzo you'll never know. Ive also noticed the yankme's love to not show up on the first game of a series unless its handed to them.

            Pitt& Stl like to not score for crap out of the blue.
            And evwn if they did one will win by 3 or 4 run max to the others 2. Col & Flor will not bother to score. Florida can stop the roxs but win or lose Fla is not putting up more than 3 in Colorado .
            Comment
            • Ralphie1412
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-29-08
              • 13963

              #7
              I like NC but his inability to win totals is pretty insane. Im on the fade train in this thread.
              "This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
              Goat Milk
              Comment
              • No coincidences
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 01-18-10
                • 76300

                #8
                Comment
                • HoulihansTX
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 02-12-09
                  • 30566

                  #9
                  2-0 start.
                  Comment
                  • borednaz
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-28-10
                    • 3809

                    #10
                    2-0 No coin woot.
                    Comment
                    • lunchbawks
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 01-31-10
                      • 12873

                      #11
                      no coin can't pick a total to save his life..

                      good luck this time 'round
                      Comment
                      • vyomguy
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 12-08-09
                        • 5794

                        #12
                        stay away from mlb totals...total crapshot....lot of variables.
                        Comment
                        • ebbearsfb1
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 12-07-08
                          • 18815

                          #13
                          Yeah had under 7.5 orioles/a's.. looks good for 6 innings and you know the rest
                          Comment
                          • No coincidences
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 01-18-10
                            • 76300

                            #14
                            Nothing yesterday.

                            2-0 record.

                            Wednesday....

                            Plays:
                            TB/BOS over 9
                            COL/FLA over 9.5


                            Leans:
                            SD/NYM over 6.5
                            CHC/HOU over 8
                            StL/PIT over 8
                            MIN/DET over 9.5
                            SEA/TOR under 7.5
                            Comment
                            • SOUP
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-02-09
                              • 1325

                              #15
                              Like the min/det over 9.5 as well bol
                              Comment
                              • No coincidences
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 01-18-10
                                • 76300

                                #16
                                Price came to play today. That one's a loss.

                                Adding as a play:

                                BAL/OAK under 8.5
                                Comment
                                • No coincidences
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-18-10
                                  • 76300

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by No coincidences
                                  Nothing yesterday.

                                  2-0 record.

                                  Wednesday....

                                  Plays:
                                  TB/BOS over 9
                                  COL/FLA over 9.5


                                  Leans:
                                  SD/NYM over 6.5
                                  CHC/HOU over 8
                                  StL/PIT over 8
                                  MIN/DET over 9.5
                                  SEA/TOR under 7.5
                                  Originally posted by No coincidences
                                  Price came to play today. That one's a loss.

                                  Adding as a play:

                                  BAL/OAK under 8.5
                                  1-2 plays yesterday
                                  3-2 season


                                  Leans went 4-1 (of course)

                                  Today....

                                  Plays:
                                  CIN/WAS under 8 (double play)
                                  CLE/CHW over 8


                                  Leans:
                                  TEX/LAA under 6.5
                                  NYY/MIN under 8
                                  Comment
                                  • No coincidences
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 01-18-10
                                    • 76300

                                    #18
                                    Adding another double play:

                                    ARI/PHI over 8
                                    Comment
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