July System Plays

[smitch124]

July 1st:

All plays will be 2 units on the sides and 1 unit on the totals:

2* Houston -125
2* Oakland -105
1* SD/Col under 9.5

[smitch124]

1-2 -3.6 units

July 2nd

2* Colorado Rockies -140

[smitch124]

Yesterday: 1-0 +2.00 units
July: 2-2 -1.60 units

July 3rd

2* Los Angeles Dodgers -132
2* Oakland A's +115

[smitch124]

Yesterday: 2-0 +4.30 units
July: 4-2 +2.70 units

July 4th:

2* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110)
2* Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+135)
1* Ariz/SD Under 8.5 (-120)
1* Cle/Min Over 9.5 (-105)

[smitch124]

Yesterday: 2-2 -2.00 units
July: 6-4 +0.70 units

July 5th

2* Los Angeles Dodgers -126
1* Wash/Cinn Under 9.5 (-105)
1* Set/Sea Under 9 (-105)

[smitch124]

Yesterday: 2-1 -0.52 units
July: 8-5 +0.18 units

July 6th

2* San Diego Padres +138

[smitch124]

Hendrickson is in he's out, he's back in again.

adding...

2* Colorado Rockies -170 List: Cook, Hendrickson

[smitch124]

Yesterday: 0-2 -5.40 units
July: 8-7 -5.22 units

July 7th

2* Tampa Bay Rays -180

[smitch124]

Adding...

2* Minnesota +154

[smitch124]

Yesterday: 0-2 -5.60 units
July: 8-9 -10.62

July 8th

2* San Francisco Giants +105
2* Florida Marlins +107
2* Chicago Cubs -156
2* Detroit Tigers -191
1* Minn/Bos Under 9.5 (-115)

[smitch124]

Yesterday: 2-3 -1.15 units
July: 10-12 -11.77 units

July 9th

2* Minnesota Twins +220
2* Tampa Bay +110

may add later...

[smitch124]

Yesterday: 0-2 -4.00 units
July: 10-14 -15.77 units

July 10th

2* Milwaukee Brewers -173
1* LAA/Tex under 9.5 (-125)

[smitch124]

Yesterday: 1-1 +0.75 units
July: 11-15 -15.02 units

July 11th

2* Cleveland Indians -108
1* Az/Phi under 9.5 (-120)

[chipski]

like your clev selection ..

gl

[smitch124]

thanks chipski, system a good fade so far in July...

Yesterday: 1-1 +0.80 units
July: 12-16 -14.22 units

July 12th

2* Toronto Blue Jays +110
2* Chicago White Sox -107
1* CWS/Tex Under 10 (-105)

[smitch124]

Yesterday: 1-2 -1.05 units
July: 13-18 -15.27 units

July 13th

2* Detroit Tigers -143
1* TB/Cle Over 8.5 (-125) 5 Dimes

may add later...

[smitch124]

July 13th adding...

2* St. Louis Cardinals -114
1* StL/Pit Over 9.5 (-115)

may add later...

[smitch124]

July 13th adding...

2* Texas Rangers -108

still capping may add later...

[smitch124]

July 13th last one...

2* Oakland A's -172

[smitch124]

July 13th: 4-2 +2.41 units
July: 17-20 -12.86 units

July 17th:

2* Colorado Rockies -151
2* New York Mets -138
2* St. Louis Cardinals -104

[smitch124]

July 17th: 3-0 +6.00 units
July: 20-20 -6.86 units

July 18th:

2* Minnesota Twins -120
2* Seattle Mariners -128
1* KC/CWS over 8 (-120)
1* Pit/Col over 10.5 (-120)

[smitch124]

July 18th: 3-1 +3.80 units
July: 23-21 -3.06 units

July 19th:

2* Washington Nationals +198

thats all for today...

[smitch124]

July 19th: 1-0 +3.96 units
July: 24-21 +0.90 units

July 20th:

2* Colorado Rockies -179
2* Washington Nationals +172

may add later...

[smitch124]

July 20th adding...

1* Tex/Minn over 9 (-105)

may add later...

[smitch124]

July 20th: 2-1 +4.39 units
July: 26-22 +5.29 units

July 21:

Today is a tough day to decide for this system. This system objectively makes picks, and I filter them afterwards by not using plays due to pitcher vs. team matchups and recent injuries (which it does not account for). Today there are some crazy matchup anomalies. For today the system has generated 3 plays:

Chicago Cubs -137
Minnesota Twins +124
Los Angeles Angels -201

In the Cubs game Randy Johnson is 12-0 lifetime against the Cubs with a 1.98 ERA. The thing is the last time he pitched against them was 2004 when he was a different pitcher and the Cubs were a different team....I'm going with this one.

The Twins just barely qualified as a play in fact at +123 they don't qualify. Couple that with the fact that Sydney Ponson is 10-2 lifetime with a 2.42 ERA with a complete game victory against them this year I'm dropping the play.

The Angels despite being -201, still qualify as a play quite easily. Ervin Santana though is 0-5 with a 6.59 ERA lifetime against Cleveland. He did have a no-decision against them earlier in the year where he pitched decently, but at -201 I don't really wanna be looking at very many negatives at all, so this one is dropped.

one play for today:

2* Chicago Cubs -137

[smitch124]

July 21st: 0-1 -2.74 units
July: 26-23 +2.55 units

July 22nd:

2* Colorado Rockies -139
2* Washington Nationals -105
2* Chicago White Sox -163
1* Atl/Fla under 10 (-115)
1* Wash/SF over 8 (+100)
1* Bos/Sea under 8.5 (-120)

[smitch124]

July 22nd: 5-1 +4.90 units
July: 31-24 +7.45 units

July 23rd:

2* Milwaukee Brewers -137
2* Florida Marlins -101
2* Los Angeles Angels -167
2* Seattle Mariners -132
1* Cle/LAA over 7.5 (-115)

[smitch124]

July 23rd: 3-2 +0.34 units
July: 34-26 +7.79 units

July 24th:

1* Milw/StL over 8 (-115)

[smitch124]

July 24th: 0-1 -1.15 units
July: 34-27 +6.64 units

July 25th:

1* Fla/CHC under 9.5 (-115)

will add later...

[smitch124]

July 25th adding...

2* San Diego Padres +113
2* Milwaukee Brewers -155

thats all for today...

[smitch124]

July 25th: 2-1 +0.16 units
July: 36-28 +6.80 units

July 26th:

2* Oakland A's -181

[smitch124]

July 26th: 0-1 -3.62 units
July: 36-29 +3.18 units

July 27th

2* Pittsburgh Pirates +107
1* SD/Pitt Over 7 (-125)

May add later

[smitch124]

July 27th adding...

2* Oakland A's -116

I might have more if the stupid split stats pages at mlb.com starts working again

[smitch124]

This is really frustrating...I'm using my OPS against data from Kershaw's last home start and Bergmann's last road start, so the data is a little stale. Everything else so strongly points to Washington that I'm sure even with the fresh data....

2* Washington Nationals +133

[smitch124]

July 27th: 1-3 -3.25 units
July: 37-32 -0.07 units

July 28th

2* Milwaukee Brewers -163
1* CHC/Milw over 7.5 (-110)
1* StL/Atl over 9.5 (-105)