Before anyone gets their panties in a twist, I’m going to talk about pitchers DIP and Rankings. The DIP score can be deciphered from readily available data. The Rankings I’m using is a proprietary “marriage” of sabremetic data and Game Score data from Bill James. I don’t profess it to be the “holy Grail” of methods, however it suits me well, and from an analysis situation, it has been solid this year. I’m aware the rankings will always be a source of debate, depending on data used, but mine do not differ too much from some accepted sources. So lets get to it…….
Cleveland @ Texas (-175) Tomlin vs. Lewis
Cleveland: J. Tomlin, DIP overall 4.75, Last 3 3.75. Rating: 140
Texas: C. Lewis, DIP overall 4.13, Last 3 5.75, Rating; 191
I ran this data thru my database….simply ‘cause I had some extra time, and here are some interesting results, especially for the contrarians and “dog” bettors looking for an excuse. I’m using Last 3 gm. data only!
CLEVELAND: This year, when facing a pitcher with a DIP score between 180-200, Clev. Is 8-4, and 5.2 RPG. When facing a pitcher with a Rating between 185-195, Clev. Is 8-5, and 4.66 RPG. When facing a pitcher combining DIP >4.99 AND Rating >190, Clev is 4-2, scoring 4.66 RPG.
TEXAS: This year when facing a pitcher with a DIP score between 3.70-3.85, Tex. Is 1-1, scoring 4.1 RPG. When facing a pitcher with a Rating between 135-145, Tex. Is 1-1, scoring 5.0 RPG. When facing a pitcher combining DIP >3.70 to <3.85 AND Ranking >140 to <150, Tex. Has played NO teams that fit that profile.
Using only this data, it would appear Cleveland has a “fighting chance” here and can be expected to score at least 4.5+ runs, seeing how they average 4.1 RPG on the road and are averaging 5.4 RPG in the past 7 games. Clev. Is batting 27 points higher (.275) in the last 7 games than their overall season avg.
Texas is batting 13 points lower (.267) in the last 7 gms. than their season avg. They have scored 4.71 RPG in the past 7 days, which is a touch lower than their season avg. at home.
In conclusion, data suggests that this matchup is a lot closer than the linesmakers project. Laying -175 on the Rangers is too steep, and a case can be made to take back the +155 as this game seems to be closer to a toss up. Now in fairness, I’m ignoring several important handicapping factors and that Texas has one of the best home records at 36-22 in all of baseball.
This was an endeavor to try to catch a worthwhile “dog” today. My model alerted me to this game and I spent a little extra time. I make this game Tex -123 or so, and I see Statfox has them at -134. I’m still looking at this game as well as a couple of others. This post is for information purposes only.
It takes a lot more time to post all this than it does to calculate it….LOL.
Good Luck on your action….
Cleveland @ Texas (-175) Tomlin vs. Lewis
Cleveland: J. Tomlin, DIP overall 4.75, Last 3 3.75. Rating: 140
Texas: C. Lewis, DIP overall 4.13, Last 3 5.75, Rating; 191
I ran this data thru my database….simply ‘cause I had some extra time, and here are some interesting results, especially for the contrarians and “dog” bettors looking for an excuse. I’m using Last 3 gm. data only!
CLEVELAND: This year, when facing a pitcher with a DIP score between 180-200, Clev. Is 8-4, and 5.2 RPG. When facing a pitcher with a Rating between 185-195, Clev. Is 8-5, and 4.66 RPG. When facing a pitcher combining DIP >4.99 AND Rating >190, Clev is 4-2, scoring 4.66 RPG.
TEXAS: This year when facing a pitcher with a DIP score between 3.70-3.85, Tex. Is 1-1, scoring 4.1 RPG. When facing a pitcher with a Rating between 135-145, Tex. Is 1-1, scoring 5.0 RPG. When facing a pitcher combining DIP >3.70 to <3.85 AND Ranking >140 to <150, Tex. Has played NO teams that fit that profile.
Using only this data, it would appear Cleveland has a “fighting chance” here and can be expected to score at least 4.5+ runs, seeing how they average 4.1 RPG on the road and are averaging 5.4 RPG in the past 7 games. Clev. Is batting 27 points higher (.275) in the last 7 games than their overall season avg.
Texas is batting 13 points lower (.267) in the last 7 gms. than their season avg. They have scored 4.71 RPG in the past 7 days, which is a touch lower than their season avg. at home.
In conclusion, data suggests that this matchup is a lot closer than the linesmakers project. Laying -175 on the Rangers is too steep, and a case can be made to take back the +155 as this game seems to be closer to a toss up. Now in fairness, I’m ignoring several important handicapping factors and that Texas has one of the best home records at 36-22 in all of baseball.
This was an endeavor to try to catch a worthwhile “dog” today. My model alerted me to this game and I spent a little extra time. I make this game Tex -123 or so, and I see Statfox has them at -134. I’m still looking at this game as well as a couple of others. This post is for information purposes only.
It takes a lot more time to post all this than it does to calculate it….LOL.
Good Luck on your action….
