Sat. MLB Discussion

j$ · 06-28-08, 03:30 PM

Tigers/Rocks

Detroit is now 39-40 SU. They came into this Colorado series knowing that if they swept the ****ing hapless Rockies they could be above .500 for the first time this season. Game 1 certainly had them starting that effort at a sweep with a bang - in their previous 10 home games they hadn't scored once in the 1st inning, Friday they got not 1 but 2 runs in the 1st.

Of course you can't get to the milestone of +.500 until you've reached the milestone of .500, and who do they get to face in trying to achieve that mark? Jeff Francis LOL

Francis away to non <.500 NL West teams
ERA 10.44, WHIP 1.92

Francis away to AL teams
ERA 9.00, WHIP 1.55

Who does Detroit wheel out to face Francis? Verlander

Verlander last 4 at home
ERA 1.86, WHIP 0.93

Verlander's season
ERA 6.43, WHIP 1.47 in his first 8 starts
ERA 2.70, WHIP 1.16 in his last 8 starts

Verlander's pitcher of record
W/L/ND 2-9-2 avging 2.77 runs support first 13 starts
W/L/ND 2-0-1 avging 5.33 runs support last 3 starts

What about Colorado's road form?

2-16 last 18 road games not vs teams called the LA Dodgers
Averaging offensively 3.66 runs/game
Average margin of -3.33 runs
Colorado away to righties, hitting .243 last 10, .256 on the season

2 Wins vs Contreras, since he turned to shit (ERA 8.60, WHIP 2.00 last 4), and Danks, a lefty whom COL had only their best pitcher by a mile (Cook, 10-5) start against.

What about Detroit's home form during their current strong run (15-4 SU last 19) aimed at getting back into the thick of the AL Central race?

9-1 last 10 home games
Averaging offensively 5.70 runs/game
Average margin of +2.20 runs
Detroit at home to lefties, hitting .311 last 10, .290 on the season

Umpire?
11-5 SU to the home team, 8-4 SU to home Favs

Colorado has the bliss of 7 home games (starting w/3 vs SD) awaiting them following their 6th and 7th straight road games that mark the completion of this Detroit series. They're 0-5 SU (avging 2.20 runs/game) following going 12-5 SU their previous 17 games (which itself was a streak preceded by a 5-17 SU run).
You see this kind of sequence all the time from bad teams. They suck for an age (COL 5-17 SU), get it in themselves to prove they're worth their paychecks (COL 12-5 SU, coinciding with a ton of home games) and once they feel satisified + the wrong conditions come about (ie road games) their motivation runs out (COL's current 0-5 SU run). I'd be very very suprised if Detroit didnt get their desired sweep simply because until Colorado get back home they don't have the right psychological conditions with which to turn on the motivation tap again.
While on the other side of the coin, Detroit has a massive psychological force underpinning everything they do at the moment. The time to fear their reverting back to their previous woeful ways will be once they're over .500 by 1-2-3 games. Then they should feel easier to breath, and whether their turnaround is for real will be witnessed.
But that's not the concern here. This series is like a World Series for Detroit, for Colorado it's a barrier to playing with good starters on home turf vs a crappy team. And you've got the bonus of taking an AL team vs an NL team.

fifawcs · 06-28-08, 04:43 PM

I'm on the tigers run line, good luck.

j$ · 06-28-08, 04:57 PM

Very Hard to take the Rocks here....If Tigers win they pull to .500. They are motivated

ZBOIZ · 06-28-08, 04:58 PM

Im taking Minnesota +100 and the Angels +106