Thursday Interleague Value Plays

[fifawcs]

After trying YoungSc's system, I concluded that it doesn't payout enough for my liking. Yeah, i made 53% or 0.53 units, but that really only works if you are betting a lot of money. So I'm back to the usual routine.

Rays-Marlins Over 9.5 -120
Pros: Hendrickson has been awful lately. Matt Garza has been awful on the road. He is 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA on the road. These two teams have very capable offenses. Since both teams have a lot to play for, I think both sides will heat up in the series finale.

Cons: Both pitchers also have the ability to pitch well

Reds -114
Pros: Edinson Volquez, the league leader in ERA, is opposing Jesse Litsch. The Reds average 5.83 runs per game when Volquez is on the mound. If Volquez was able to shut down the Red Sox and Yankees, I figure he must be able to shut down the inferior Blue Jay offense.

Cons: Litsch can be good sometimes.

Yankees RL +110
Pros: Mussina is having one of his best seasons. He is looking for his 11th win. To sum this one up, Maholm faced the Yankees last year and pitched poorly and Moose is the winningest pitcher in baseball. Expect the Yankees to light up the Pirates to take the season finale.

Cons: Maholm has been good of late.

[rake922]

Do you think at -118 you got a good line on the reds?

[fifawcs]

I haven't actually gotten that line yet. I plan on editing the post once I place the bet. I think it might come down a little. I would take it around -110.

[johnnymapalo]

Hmm. u know that the rays vs Marlins with Karza vs Hendrickson ended in a 4-1 game the last time in Tampa Bay. Both pitchers really pitched well and that was in May, last month.. That was the only under game this year between the 2 teams. Coupled with this being the 3rd game of the series which I believe will be played more tighter. 1st game of series only reached over 10 because the bonehead closing pitcher walked like 3 men home with the bases loaded in the 8th or 9th inning. I wanted to go with the overs in this because both pitchers can be exploited but they've played each other last month and it was a tight game. I'm leaning more on the Marlins to avoid the sweep. The over in this one may be far-fetched. We'll see...

[rmcaj]

I got -105 on the Reds last night.

[fifawcs]

Hmm. u know that the rays vs Marlins with Karza vs Hendrickson ended in a 4-1 game the last time in Tampa Bay. Both pitchers really pitched well and that was in May, last month.. That was the only under game this year between the 2 teams. Coupled with this being the 3rd game of the series which I believe will be played more tighter. 1st game of series only reached over 10 because the bonehead closing pitcher walked like 3 men home with the bases loaded in the 8th or 9th inning. I wanted to go with the overs in this because both pitchers can be exploited but they've played each other last month and it was a tight game. I'm leaning more on the Marlins to avoid the sweep. The over in this one may be far-fetched. We'll see...

The difference is, Garza is awful on the road. You would be surprised at how different pitchers can be on the road. I'm still taking it.