question about ML baseball parlays

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  • ShowMeDaMoney
    SBR MVP
    • 04-04-07
    • 1056

    #1
    question about ML baseball parlays
    so let's say I wanted to parlay three teams... does it give me an advantage to then bet the three teams straight up in their individual games as well?

    you could do something like...

    risk 30 to win 150 (parlay)

    then take all three teams to win their games straight up, to win about 30.

    does this provide the player an advantage in comparison to just doing the parlay? how about betting two of the three games individually?

    not a math guy. anyone care to point out how this works?

    let's assume all the individually games are around -120 to -140


  • SportGTI
    SBR MVP
    • 04-05-11
    • 1486

    #2
    Well assuming your lines of -120 to -140, lets take an average line of -130. The return on a straight bet of 30 would be 30/1.3 = 23 and change.

    So assuming you bet the 30 on the 3 team parlay and then 30 on each game individually, you're out of pocket -120.
    Win all three, then you cash the 150 (parlay) and 69 (3 * 23) for a total of 219
    Win 2 of 3, then your cash comes to -60(bets lost) + 46 (2 * 23) = -14 (loss of about 14)
    Win 1 of 3, then your cash comes to -90(bets lost) + 23 = -67 (loss of about 67)
    Win 0 of 3, then your cash comes to -120(bets lost) = -120 (loss of 120)

    Basically, if you are confident in your parlay and feel only one may lose, then its worth a shot because you cut loss in half. However, if you hit less than 2 right, you're shooting yourself in the foot and losing more than the 30 on the parlay.

    Just some food for thought
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    • ShowMeDaMoney
      SBR MVP
      • 04-04-07
      • 1056

      #3
      I'd say it probably works out to about even.

      Odds are if you don't hit the parlay... 1 of 3 will win about 50% of the time, and 2 of 3 will hit about 50% of the time.

      Probably a wash?
      Comment
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