Beating the Lines

[The Investor]

Using the criteria of beating the line set by Vegas by a minimum of (20 cents), here should be your plays for tuesday night. Based solely on Value and in no order.

Mil (+1.15)
pitt (+1.40)
bos (-1.70)
Stl (+1.45)
clev (-1.65)
reds (+1.40)
angels (-1.40)
mets (-1.80)
balt (+1.20)
kc (-1.45)
twins (+1.50)

if the game is not listed, then the value on each side was less than (20 cents).

running new and complicated math model.... Just a testing pattern with small bets, not advising a following..

[The Investor]

here is the projected line vs. the line bet, in order of most value.

stl. cards (-1.40)projected
stl cards (+1.45) line bet
Value (+85 cents) line is now at (+1.50)

angels (-2.00) projected
angels (-1.40) line bet
Value (+60 cents)

KC (-2.00) projected
KC (-1.45) line bet
Value (+55 cents)

Twins (+1.10) projected
Twins (+1.50) line bet
Value (+40 cents)

Milwaukee (-1.20) projected
Milwuakee (+1.15) line bet
Value (+35 cents) line is now (+1.25)

Clev (-2.00) projected
Clev (-1.65) line bet
Value (+35 cents)

Pitt (+1.10) projected
Pitt (+1.40) line bet
Value (+30 cents)

Boston (-2.00) projected
Boston (-1.70) line bet
Value (+30 cents)

Reds (+1.10) projected
Reds (+1.40) line bet
Value (+30 cents)

Mets (-2.00) projected
Mets (-1.80) line bet
Value (+20 cents)

Baltimore (+1.00) projected
Baltimore (+1.20) line bet
Value (+20 cents)

[The Investor]

here is the one day game for wednesday. (Mil +1.25)

Mil (-1.20) projected
Mil (+1.25) line bet
Value (+45 cents)

all flat bet for small amounts. favorites to win one unit, dogs risking one unit.

back sometime wednesday afternoon with the night time Value Plays for wednesday.

[xyz]

This is an interesting idea. Where do you obtain your baseline, in this case the Vegas line? Thanks.

[The Investor]

perhaps i mis-spoke.... im looking for (20 cents) worth of value to determine a play...

Looks like the top 2 Value Plays cashed (stl and angels), also looks like the 2 crossover plays cashed (stl and mil)... by that i mean dogs that should have been favorites.

ill look into detail about rating the plays, as the number of posted plays grow. for now, ill continue to flat bet all of them.

the plays are generated from a Mathematical Formula, to statistically Set a Line, then simply compare that to the lines that the books offer..

perhaps we can look at a couple hundred plays, to get a small sample set..

[Trojan]

The Investor is SSI from various forums. He has been banned from TheRX and Covers (as JYD) for trying to start a tout service. He was also busted at EOG for trying to run a system for his tout business and selling picks.

He also stiffed known poster TTP a c-note from a bet and EOG owner The Shrink for $1000.

He also posted this in April on one of his many failed systems

04-11-2008, 05:26 PM #4 (permalink)
The Investor
SBR High Roller


Join Date: 02-16-08
Posts: 160

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the lines are from betjam.

i will list 100 plays, then ill tell you what they have in common. they will do no worse than (50-50) and they will all be moneyline dogs.

if not, ill leave SBR for good. now how is that for a guarantee.



He lost but is back again with another system.

[dwaechte]

Anyone who would follow a system that comes up with lines that are that far off probably isn’t going to do too well on their own anyways lol.