Houston +145 over Chicago Cubs

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65752

    #1
    Houston +145 over Chicago Cubs
    Serious overlay here.

    I like Bud Norris, good live arm, the kid is a strikeout artist.
    Forget the 5-6 record, he pitches for a crappy tea.

    Earned run average is OK at 3.59, the WH/IP ratio is below league average at 1.28
    Here's the thing I really like, more than a strike out/per inning 118K's in 117 IP's, so he's got that out pitch against a team that pretty much likes to swing.

    Cubs only have 35 lifetime at bats v. Norris, but are only 7-35 (.200) not that much of a cross section, but clear indication.

    Of those 7 hits, only 5 singles, two doubles, and in those 35 at bats, Cubs have struck out 14 times.
    Do the math, 14/35 is 1 strikout every 2 1/2 batters, that's just sick.

    Cubs send out Zambrano, not as much of a nut job as he used to be, but still a nut job.
    Zabrano has a crappy earned run average, 4.78
    Crappy WH/IP ratio 1.41, is not the K artist, power pitcher he used to be.

    Houston's current line up has no problem with him, 50-173 lifetime that's .289, on base percentage is a lofty .366, Carlos Lee flat out owns his fat ass going 24 for 65 with 5 home runs.

    I know, I know, this is Houston, backing them is risky business, and I'm not advocating going 'all in', but with Norris at a very generous +145, I'll take 'em all day.
  • WolfpackChuck
    Restricted User
    • 07-21-11
    • 191

    #2
    There's definitely value in Houston today.
    Comment
    • san2c
      SBR Sharp
      • 11-18-09
      • 305

      #3
      Very nice writeup, much better then the usual "so and so is a lock today" posts. Although I find it real hard backing road teams who are this bad
      Comment
      • Bswitz32
        SBR Sharp
        • 07-24-09
        • 460

        #4
        I have a hard time backing teams like that as well but we are talking about the CUBS here. They are just as bad of a Home team as Astros are a road team

        Taking Hou +168
        Comment
        • CHAZ
          SBR MVP
          • 12-09-09
          • 4978

          #5


          Raining pretty hard out there too. Hard to pick a side
          Comment
          • keel44
            SBR MVP
            • 08-01-09
            • 3363

            #6
            The cubs love to lose 2 then win 1 lose 2 then win 1. They have just lost 2.......
            Comment
            • southpaw74
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 12-21-09
              • 7104

              #7
              It's worth a small play for a good return I think
              Comment
              • stevenash
                Moderator
                • 01-17-11
                • 65752

                #8
                Originally posted by san2c
                Very nice writeup, much better then the usual "so and so is a lock today" posts. Although I find it real hard backing road teams who are this bad
                Thanks, I do the daily fantasy baseball thing, so I take 90 minutes in the morning to go over all the batter v. starting pitcher stats.
                Comment
                • pokerpro44
                  SBR MVP
                  • 08-20-07
                  • 3138

                  #9
                  i went small on houston.g.
                  Comment
                  • CJP
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 07-08-11
                    • 43

                    #10
                    Didnt the Cubs sweep Houston earlier this year? I'm from Houston and would never bet on the Astros, unless its a very small bet for fun. They always find a way to lose.
                    Comment
                    • DDT
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-22-09
                      • 3757

                      #11
                      I think I'm staying away from this one....GL though
                      Comment
                      • DemoralizdDreamr
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-04-11
                        • 4319

                        #12
                        Houston -1.5 +224
                        Comment
                        • mart59a
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 01-21-10
                          • 936

                          #13
                          If I had to pick a side it would be Houston.
                          Comment
                          • OliverBuch
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 07-14-11
                            • 11

                            #14
                            Love the value on Hou -1.5 alt runline, especially with zamb on the bump
                            Comment
                            • BigDaddy
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-01-06
                              • 8378

                              #15
                              i like the play steve

                              good luck
                              Comment
                              • miyakuza
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-03-10
                                • 1411

                                #16
                                Houston has won 9 of its last 11 against the Cubs AT Wrigley... I like Astros for the win here.
                                Comment
                                • jlee
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 07-22-11
                                  • 375

                                  #17
                                  Here is my analysis:

                                  Houston @ Chicago
                                  Pick: Houston

                                  * Astros are 4-2 against the Cubs this season, with the last three wins coming at Wrigley.
                                  * Zambrano is horrendous against Right handed batters; the Astros having the most AB's in the league as Right.
                                  * Righties are hitting .187 against Norris; Cubs are also righty heavy. Also, Norris has strong "Day" numbers.

                                  * Making a pick on Astros for 4 1/2... can't trust the Astros' bullpen.

                                  More picks on http://jleepicks.blogspot.com/
                                  Comment
                                  • homerbush
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-17-08
                                    • 2317

                                    #18
                                    Under for me
                                    Comment
                                    • DrStale
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 12-07-08
                                      • 9692

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by CJP
                                      Didnt the Cubs sweep Houston earlier this year? I'm from Houston and would never bet on the Astros, unless its a very small bet for fun. They always find a way to lose.
                                      Nope, other way around.
                                      Originally posted by Dark Horse
                                      If with religion you mean belief system, your belief system is your religion. Again, it matters not what it is. You believe in it, you are loyal to it, would defend it, and yet have no proof of it, other than that, at one point or another, you chose to believe in it. Self-hypnosis. What if there were a snapping of fingers that broke the hypnosis?
                                      Comment
                                      • Cappinpicks
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 03-11-10
                                        • 14986

                                        #20
                                        Cubs win big
                                        Comment
                                        • shade3599
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-02-08
                                          • 378

                                          #21
                                          there is just too much value on houston to pass up. Cubs have an error in the last 9 games i believe. Errors really take the wind out of your sails and seem to be contagious. im not betting too much because it is houston. But just really hard to pass up houston today. just a small play for fun.
                                          Comment
                                          • yydouble
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-30-11
                                            • 1240

                                            #22
                                            down to +132. Not worth it anymore. -1.5 +200. lots of Houston $ coming in.
                                            Comment
                                            • OliverBuch
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 07-14-11
                                              • 11

                                              #23
                                              Good stuff Steve. The Carlos Lee vs Zambrono numbers make it very appealing to take Lee over Ramirez total bases prop. Anyone know Ramirez's numbers vs Norris or where I can find them?
                                              Comment
                                              • Trampas
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 03-05-11
                                                • 165

                                                #24
                                                small play on hou. just for an interest as it means more when there is money involved
                                                Comment
                                                • JAKEPEAVY21
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 03-11-11
                                                  • 29365

                                                  #25
                                                  anytime a Cubs opponent is + money, I'm game
                                                  Comment
                                                  • DemoralizdDreamr
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-04-11
                                                    • 4319

                                                    #26
                                                    bases loaded no one out and they dont score.
                                                    Why did hunter swing on a 3-0 pitch???
                                                    Why did lee not take any pitches when u clearly see sambrano is pitching wild. Whose the idiot manager for this team?????
                                                    This team is horrible.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ebbearsfb1
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 12-07-08
                                                      • 18815

                                                      #27
                                                      Cy zambrano... gets out of 2 bases loaded jams... hall of fame here we come
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Trampas
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 03-05-11
                                                        • 165

                                                        #28
                                                        hou should be 4-0 at least
                                                        Comment
                                                        • CJP
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 07-08-11
                                                          • 43

                                                          #29
                                                          I don't understand why people are upset the Astros can't score. I've been watching them all year and they will always do their best to lose.
                                                          Comment
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