Fathers +175

BigDan · 07-21-11, 11:27 PM

really like that kid sd is starting 2marro. that said i would have rather phi played today then had to fly home, ive always been big on fading a team 1st day back w/o day off as you gotta figure that 1st day is a headache with family/obligations but if they get that day i think it makes a big difference (could be wrong as i dont got the numbers to back it like usual).

thing is ive been banking with Pads now they throw out this super fat line and the guys that been playing fish all a sudden gonna get roped into playing Pads looking for "value". I wasnt playing Pads last series in fla cause i respect them, i was fading the fish. Not trying to fade philly and Hammels off a bad start. it baseball so you may be right but i just dont see pads bats staying alive. either way im not about to lay that juice on Phi so i hope you cash.

GemSportsPicks · 07-21-11, 11:31 PM

Very good point Dan, your right about they extra day rest... But something I notice with Philly is their bats tend to fall asleep out of nowwhere... Can't pass up +175 espcially since this line is only that high only because the Phillies are the Phillies and their home... Even with Public action on Philly I look for this line to fall to around +165 range... We will just have to wait and see I guess...

And yes Luebke is Top 5 pitcher in the League... The kids stuff is dirty.

BigDan · 07-22-11, 01:08 AM

honestly bro i really dont wanna touch it, im sure you are right about phils bats and i know Luebke got the goods. thing is and the reason i dont really wanna play total either is the kid has seen some pitcher ass friendly parks with a lot of pitcher friendly lineups thrown in, to make it worse Pads just swept the Fish! that could possibly be enough for phi to come in with the wrong mindset for your bet. Tell me Hamels isnt gonna shut the door on these guys who been feasting off pussies, then again he is coming off a bad start and Pads have had a LOT of bp lately...price way to steep even tho i think Hamels holds pads down and phi bats wear the kid down at some point.

Sawyer · 07-22-11, 02:47 AM

Padres are a great underdog team. They can pull off an upset tonight, why not?

Good luck tonight..

HoulihansTX · 07-22-11, 06:31 AM

Classic under play.

GemSportsPicks · 07-22-11, 09:08 AM

Yea true, I rolled with the Pads, I've had them in their last 3 against the fish.. Unfortunetly I also had the mariners in a bunch, I have learned no matter how good the play is the mariners just aren't worth it.

clonecat · 07-22-11, 09:10 AM

Definitely worth a shot.

Romanianbornwin · 07-22-11, 09:52 AM

I feel like this game could go either way, so I'm not going to touch it...

GemSportsPicks · 07-22-11, 09:57 AM

Anygame can go either way, and if you believe it 50 50 and your getting payed 1.75 to 1. that is incredible odds... I would love to go 50 50 on +175 for the rest of my life.

KnowingNothing · 07-22-11, 09:57 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Classic under play.

My play of the day.

Kid has heart and has been impressive so far. Hamels off a loss.

Romanianbornwin · 07-22-11, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by GemSportsPicks

Anygame can go either way, and if you believe it 50 50 and your getting payed 1.75 to 1. that is incredible odds... I would love to go 50 50 on +175 for the rest of my life.

Lol yeah, the only problem is that I'm a little nervous betting +175. It's against Hamels at home where he is dominant and I don't know too much about the Padres pitcher. I don't think he has very much experience and could have a rough start coming soon. Ultimately if I do decide to bet on the Padres, it will be a very small play

GemSportsPicks · 07-22-11, 10:22 AM

I feel ya Roman... Luebke is legit though... Very composed Pads broke him in the right way too... He started as stud in bullpen then they realized he had starter stuff, so converted him and didn't let him go more then 6 his first few starts, now he is cool calm and collected and poised to go 8... I'm not complete sold on Hamels, I know he has been good thus far this year, but I'm not in love with his stuff.

keel44 · 07-22-11, 10:46 AM

If you like the strength of the Pad's pitcher, use the ol' 5 inning line. You also might get a push out of the deal.

rickbo528 · 07-22-11, 10:48 AM

Phils are a bad luck team for me regardless of who pitches for them. They don't hit when I take them. When I go against them they score like crazy. It's like they KNOW I bet them.

GemSportsPicks · 07-22-11, 10:52 AM

Keel if I was only betting first 5 all year, I'd probably be up around 15k, instead of just breaking even after a great 3 days... Unfortunetly the way that works is as soon as I switch to first 5, the first 5 will lose and the game will win... Its just the way it goes... Also Phils Bullpen is a little weaker then Pads in my opinion so I'm taking my shot with the game... Got 4 plays today 400 a piece.

Fathers +175
Rangers Over 10 -115-Bluejays been hitting shit out the ball, Jojo Reyes worst pitcher in the league, rangers may have got shut out yesterday but not a true shutout considering they had 8 hits and stranded 12 runners at home they will not strand as many.
Reds +107 Jurrijens suffering from allstar break hangover... Braves just played series in Colorado and there bodies have to adjust back to regular air instead of mile high air... Reds should win low scoring game.
Cardinals- Can't pass up Cards team that is getting healthy with their best pitcher against a team they want to show isn't quite on their level yet.

Romanianbornwin · 07-22-11, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by Romanianbornwin

Lol yeah, the only problem is that I'm a little nervous betting +175. It's against Hamels at home where he is dominant and I don't know too much about the Padres pitcher. I don't think he has very much experience and could have a rough start coming soon. Ultimately if I do decide to bet on the Padres, it will be a very small play

There you go. Rough start coming soon, looks like this might be it. Glad I decided to not bet the Padres. I'm on the under, so I hope, Luebke is out soon, so we can get to the best bullpen in MLB

Romanianbornwin · 07-22-11, 07:42 PM

Luebke is done for the day, 110 pitches, 5 innings, 2 earned runs, 6 hits. Not a terrible start, but definitely worse than his previous starts.

GemSportsPicks · 07-22-11, 07:54 PM

Yea its all good, glad you avoid the loss.. I'm happy to be in it right now though getting the plus juice... I'm looking at the 2-2 day at the moment. But we all know things can change in a heart beat and usually for the worse.

Romanianbornwin · 07-22-11, 07:57 PM

Still think he is a decent pitcher tho. Stuck around for 110 pitches, got a couple key strikeouts and has a good slider. But faced a Phils lineup that was ready to go tonight

BigDan · 07-22-11, 08:30 PM

Originally posted by Romanianbornwin

Luebke is done for the day, 110 pitches, 5 innings, 2 earned runs, 6 hits. Not a terrible start, but definitely worse than his previous starts.

like i said this was a much tougher atmosphere than the kid has seen. he has been in pitcher friendly parks against pitcher friendly teams so far.

Originally posted by Romanianbornwin

Still think he is a decent pitcher tho. Stuck around for 110 pitches, got a couple key strikeouts and has a good slider. But faced a Phils lineup that was ready to go tonight

He is much more than a decent pitcher and really no shame in his outing considering the venue and the fact Pads got phils attention by sweeping the fish.

rthoughton · 07-24-11, 11:50 PM

Phils phils phightin phils. Don't bet against them, just double on them to take the series. 9 straight.