Adam's MLB picks

[Adam Bond]

I've been sports handicapping for a few years now making steady long-term profit and therefore have decided to share my selections publicly on these forums. My main sports are American Football and Basketball but I have also had success in other sports including Baseball.

Lets make some profit!

[Adam Bond]

I have one play for today which is the final game of the night. Apologies for the late post but as i've only just set up an SBR account this is the earliest opportunity i've had to post my selection. I would usually post in-depth analysis to support my selection but with the event starting in roughly 10 minutes i'll just have to state my pick.

Best of luck if any of you choose to follow.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (moneyline)

-110 odds. Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units.

[Adam Bond]

I have one play for today which is the final game of the night. Apologies for the late post but as i've only just set up an SBR account this is the earliest opportunity i've had to post my selection. I would usually post in-depth analysis to support my selection but with the event starting in roughly 10 minutes i'll just have to state my pick.

Best of luck if any of you choose to follow.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (moneyline)

-110 odds. Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units.

[Adam Bond]

Sorry about the double post. Still getting to grips with this site and the whole delayed display of a post until a moderator authorises it or whatever

Anyway, more importantly, i'm pleased to start the thread on a high with the D'Backs picking up the 'W' last night behind Kennedy.

Current record 1-0 + 1.5 units

Obviously still early days but its nice to start the thread with a win. Hopefully I can build on that throughout the remainder of the season.

I will post tonight's selection(s) around 9pm.

[homosayswhat]

its called bumping.
being it appears you are talking to yourself.....

[Adam Bond]

Haha thanks for that.

[Adam Bond]

I have just the one pick for tonight which I will post shortly with analysis. Best of luck to everyone with their selections tonight.

[Adam Bond]

Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals

The Rays enter their series opener against the Royals tonight with plenty of momentum on
their side following a 2-1 victory over C.C Sabathia and the NY Yankees last night that
earned them a series split.

The Rays have a slight pitching advantage over the Royals tonight in my opinion with
Wade Davis opposing Luke Hochevar on the mound. Davis has compiled a 2.84 ERA over his
last 3 starts vs Hochevar who has a 7.20 ERA over his last 3.

After a strong rehab outing and bullpen session earlier this week following a slight
forearm strain, Davis is ready to return to the Rays starting rotation for tonight's
series opener. The Rays have won both of his career starts vs the Royals during which he
has posted an ERA of just 1.29.

On the flipside, the Royals have lost each of their last 4 series openers when Hochevar
has been on the mound. They have also lost each of Hochevar's 4 career starts vs the
Rays during which he has posted an ERA of 10.00.

The Royals have lost 13 of their last 18 meetings against the Rays, including 5 of their
last 7 at home, and I expect the Rays dominance in the matchup to continue tonight.

Additionally, the Rays are 13-5 in Davis' last 18 road starts and 12-1 in his last 13
road starts vs a team with an overall losing record.

Finally, with they moneyline odds at -102, I see value in backing the Rays to win the
series opener tonight.

Pick: TB Rays moneyline (risking 1.53 Units to win 1.5 Units)

[Adam Bond]

Dissapointing loss last night. Looking to bounce back with tonight's selection which I will post in a few minutes with analysis.

Best of luck all!

[Adam Bond]

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians

Edwin Jackson will be on the mound for the White Sox tonight and will enter the game full of confidence after pitching a complete-game shutout against the Tigers in his last outing. There aren't many starting pitchers that have dominated the Indians quite like Jackson, he has gone 8-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 12 career starts against the tribe. Jackson is also 8-1 in road games following a win over the last 2 seasons.

Pitching for the Indians tonight will be David Huff, who has posted an 8.05 ERA and 1.852 WHIP in 3 career starts against the White Sox. In those 3 outings, Huff allowed 14 earned runs, 4 home runs and 29 base runners spanning 15 2/3 innings. Additionally, Cleveland are 1-6 in Huff's last 7 starts.

The Indians are 0-7 so far this season when facing teams whose hitters strike out less than or equal to 6 times per game, which is a trend that will apply again tonight against the White Sox. The Indians are also just 8-19 when facing opponents that have beaten them in 2 consecutive previous meetings this season.

The White Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 Saturday games and 5-1 against the Indians this season. The White Sox have won 7 of the last 8 meetings in this series overall and 7 of the last 8 in Cleveland.

I expect Chicago's dominance in the matchup to continue and see value in backing them as a small road favourite in tonight's game.

Pick: CHI White Sox moneyline (-106 odds) Risking 2.65 Units to win 2.5 Units.

[Adam Bond]

I posted two comments earlier which aren't showing for some reason

I have 1 play for tonight, 2.65 units on CHI White Sox moneyline (-106 odds)
I did post analysis earlier but dont have time to re-post.

Best of luck all

[Adam Bond]

No result for last night's selection as the game was postponed. I was going to take the White Sox again today, still behind Edwin Jackson but didn't have time to place the bet or post it up on here. I just noticed that they won 4-2 but nevermind.

No other picks from me for tonight, i'll be back with more tomorrow.

Best of luck all!

[Adam Bond]

Just 1 pick from me for tonight which I will post along with analysis a.s.a.p

Best of luck all

[Adam Bond]

Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians

The Angels have gone 4-1 in their last 5 games to move to within 3 games of the Texas Rangers which is a confidence and momentum boost for the Halo's. The Cleveland Indians on the other hand have lost four straight games and 6 of their last 8 overall. There's no doubting the fact that the Angels are currently in better form, playing better baseball than the Indians and also have the edge on the mound in tonight's game.

Dan Haren will be pitching for the Halo's and he has posted a record of 10-6 with an ERA of 3.10 and a 1.021 WHIP in 21 starts this season. The Angels are 7-1 in Haren's last 8 starts vs a team with a winning record. Additionally, the Angels are 17-5 in their last 22 games as a favourite.

Fausto Carmona will be on the mound for Cleveland. He is 5-10 with an 5.79 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in 19 starts this season. The Indians are 1-5 in Carmona's last 6 starts vs the Angels. They are also 16-35 in their last 51 games as an underdog and 2-8 in Carmona's last 10 starts as an underdog.

Additional stats: The Angels are 5-1 in Haren's last 6 starts overall, 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs American League Central opponents and 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs teams with a winning record.

The Indians have lost 5 consecutive home games and are 3-7 in Carmona's last 10 starts overall. The Indians are also 6-18 in his last 24 starts vs American League West opponents.

Pick: LA Angels moneyline (-121 odds)

Risking 2.42 Units to win 2 Units.

[Adam Bond]

Abreu homers on a fly ball to right field

Lets hope the Angels can see this game out.

[SOUP]

Abreu homers on a fly ball to right field

Lets hope the Angels can see this game out.

Finally some offense.... Haren pitched a hell of a game.

[Adam Bond]

I know! i've not been watching a livestream, just been following the game on mlb.com but really frustrating that the Angels were doing nothing with the bats. For a moment i thought the 1st inning run would win for the tribe. Glad the Halo's FINALLY got something on the board to support Haren

[Adam Bond]

I'd just like to take this opportunity to congratulate Jordan Walden for gifting the game to Cleveland. One of the most frustrating games ive followed in a while

Current record: 1-2 / -2.45 Units

[Adam Bond]

I have 3 picks for tonight which I will post shortly with analysis.

Best of luck all.

[Adam Bond]

Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians

Jared Weaver will be on the mound for the Halo's tonight opposing Josh Tomlin who will be pitching for the Indians. These two starting pitchers have been the most productive for their respective teams and I expect a pitching duel when the teams take to the field later tonight.

Weaver is 13-4 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.948 WHIP in 21 starts for the Angels, while Tomlin is 11-4 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in 20 starts for the Indians this season. Tomlin has been pitching his best at home this season posting a 7-1 record with a 3.37 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in 10 starts.

The 'UNDER' is 7-2-2 in Weaver's 11 career starts vs the Indians, while the 'UNDER' is 2-0 in Tomlin's 2 career starts vs the Angels.

Weaver is 12-1 'UNDER' (+8.0 Units) vs American League teams scoring 4.7 or fewer funs per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, 8-0 'UNDER' (+8.0 Units) vs American League opponents with an on base percentage of .330 or lower in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Pick: UNDER 7.0 runs (-119 odds)

Risking 2.38 Units to win 2 Units.

[Adam Bond]

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox

Detroit have a clear pitching advantage tonight with their 'ace' Justin Verlander heading to the mound. The right-handed flame thrower is 13-5 with an ERA of 2.24 on the season. He's also 6-2 with an ERA of 1.98 at home.

The Tigers have won 10 of Verlander's last 12 starts, during which he has held the opposition to 1 or no earned runs on 9 occasions. They have also won 7 of his last 8 starts against the White Sox, during which he has allowed 3 or fewer runs in all 7 of those victories.

Jake Peavy gets the nod for the White Sox. He's carrying an ERA of 5.56 through 10 starts and an ERA of 7.16 through his last 3 starts which all resulted in defeats. Peavy is also 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs American League Central opponents, with one of those defeats coming against the Tigers when he allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings.

The Tigers have won 12 of their last 16 meetings with the White Sox and 7 of the last 9 in Chicago.

Pick: DET Tigers moneyline (-150 odds)

Risking 3 Units to win 2 Units.

[Adam Bond]

Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland Athletics

The A's picked up the win in the series opener last night but the Rays will look to bounce back when Dave Price squares off against Brandon McCarthy later tonight. The Rays need to rebuild some momentum after suffering a minor slump over the last few games and their big left-hander can help guide them back on track with a win tonight.

Price owns a 12-2 overall record in road night games and 14-3 record as a road favourite of -125 or greater. The Rays are 8-1 as a road favourite of -125 to -150 this season. McCarthy on the other hand owns a 2-8 overall record in night games this season.

Tampa Bay have the slight edge on the mound tonight and although they're lacking some momentum, I don't see the A's weak hitting line-up giving Price and the Rays too many problems.

Pick: TB Rays moneyline (-126 odds)

Risking 2.52 Units to win 2 Units.

[Adam Bond]

Profitable night last night as my selections went 2-1 with the Rays being the only team letting me down. I'll be back with more picks tonight. Best of luck all.

Current record: 3-3 / -0.97 Units

[Adam Bond]

I have 5 selections for tonight's games which makes this my biggest night since I started posting on here by some distance. It's unusual for me to have this many selections in one day so we'll see how it works out..

Best of luck all!

[Adam Bond]

San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are pretty solid against the moneyline when it comes to facing teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons posting a 55-18 record in the process making +32.7 Units. They Phillies are also 22-7 against the moneyline after 4 or more consecutive home games this season, making +13.7 Units in the process.

Cole Hamels will be on the mound for the Phillies tonight opposing Matt Cain of the Giants. Cain was scheduled a rest today but has been selected as a replacement for Tim Lincecum who is recovering from an illness. Hamels had a rare poor start two games ago allowing 7 earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work in a convincing 11-2 defeat handed to them by the NY Mets on July 16th. He followed that performance with a strong outing spanning 8 innings, allowing just 1 earned run on 3 hits, walking 1 and striking out 10 in the process.

Supporting the Phillies on the moneyline tonight is a system that has produced a record of 51-14 making +32 units per single unit wagers spanning the last 14 years. The system suggests to bet against road underdogs with a moneyline of +125 to +175 that is a struggling hitting team, batting <=.255 with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season and now facing an excellent National League starting pitcher posting an ERA <=2.70.

I expect Hamels to give the Giants offense plenty of problems and recieve enough run support from the Phillies offense to pick up the 'W' in tonight's game.

Pick: PHI Phillies moneyline (-167 odds)

Risking 5.01 Units to win 3 Units.

[Adam Bond]

Florida Marlins @ Washington Nationals

The Nationals will hand the ball to Livian Hernandez for tonight's game against Javier Vazquez and the Marlins. Hernandez has been a completely different pitcher on the road compared to at home this season, pitching like an 'Ace' in Washington going 4-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in 10 starts.

Javier Vazquez used to be considered as an 'Ace' but he's clearly washed up, posting a record of 6-9 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.486 WHIP in 20 starts in 2011. The Nationals have a pretty clear edge on the mound tonight, yet they are only considered a -112 home favourite which provides some value.

Vazquez is 1-2 with a 4.85 ERA in 4 career starts against the Nationals, while Hernandez is 13-12 with a 3.62 ERA in 34 career starts against the Marlins. In his only start against Washington this season, Vazquez gave up 6 earned runs in 4 innings contributing towards an 8-4 defeat on May 15th. In his last start against Florida, Hernandez gave up 1 earned run in 7 innings of a 1-0 loss on May 14th.

The Nationals are 15-7 in their last 22 games as a home favourite whilst the Marlins are 11-24 in their last 35 games vs right-handed pitchers.

Pick: WAS Nationals moneyline (-112 odds)

Risking 1.78 Units to win 1.5 Units.

[Adam Bond]

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves

The Braves were let off the hook big time last night on a blown call in the 19th inning to even the series with the Pirates at 1-1. Jair Jurrjens will be on the hill for the Braves tonight and he is in a good bouce-back spot following two consecutive poor outings where he allowed 10 runs over 11 innings of work. However, despite his two previous poor performances, Atlanta pulled through with wins in both games to take Jurrjens record to 12-3 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 18 starts with the Braves going 14-4 in those games. Additionally, Atlanta are 8-1 in Jurrjens 9 home starts this season where he has posted a 2.52 ERA.

Paul Maholm gets the nod for Pittsburgh tonight and he is having a sensational season so far posting a 3.26 ERA through 21 starts this season. However, the Pirates have only recorded 7 wins with 14 defeats across those games. The Pirates are 6-6 in Maholm's 12 home starts where he has posted a 2.37 ERA and 1.17 WHIP but it has been a different story on the road as they are 1-8 in Maholm's 9 starts posting a 4.45 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in the process.

Pittsburgh have only averaged 3.3 runs per game in Maholm's road outings this season and they are just 2-11 in his last 13 starts against National League East opponents.

The Braves have won each of Jurrjens last 6 starts with 5 of those victories coming by at least 2 runs whilst 6 of Maholm's road defeats this year (1-8 on the ML) have come by at least 2 runs.

Pick: ATL Braves moneyline (-170 odds)

Risking 3.40 Units to win 2 Units.

[Adam Bond]

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves

We have two strong starting pitchers going to work in this one. Jair Jurrjens is 12-3 with a 2.44 ERA in 18 starts for Atlanta, while Paul Maholm is 6-10 with a 3.26 ERA in 21 starts for Pittsburgh. The 'Under' is 14-6-1 in Maholm's 21 starts this year.

These two pitcher's have also been dominant when facing their respective opponents. Jurrjens is 2-3 with a 2.35 ERA in 5 career starts (4-1 'Under') vs Pittsburgh, while Maholm is 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA in 5 career starts (5-0 'Under') vs Atlanta.

Both teams will be suffering from extended fatigue following last night's 19 inning marathon which should give an edge to the starting pitcher's. I expect a pitcher's duel resulting in tonights game going 'Under' the posted total of 7 runs.

Pick: 'Under' 7 runs (+106 odds)

Risking 2 Units to win 2.12 Units.

[Adam Bond]

Houston Astros @ St. Louis Cardinals

Apologies for not posting a write-up for this game (my final selection of the night) as I'm a little rushed for time.

Pick: 'Under 7.5 runs (-110 odds)

Risking 1.65 Units to win 1.5 Units.

[Adam Bond]

Last night's picks went 3-2 but made a loss overall with my biggest play of the night on the Phillies losing. Will hopefully get back on track with tonight's selections which i'll post in a few minutes. I wasn't sure whether i'd have time to post tonight's picks but i'll put them up quickly however I wont have time to post write-ups. Best of luck all!

Current record: 6-5 / -2.14 Units

[Adam Bond]

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: TOR Blue Jays moneyline (-155 odds)
Risking 6.20 Units to win 4 Units.

Houston Astros @ St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: STL Cardinals -1.5 run line (+115 odds)
Risking 2 Units to win 2.30 Units

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves
Pick: PIT Pirates moneyline (+149 odds)
Risking 2 Units to win 2.98 Units

[Adam Bond]

Profitable night last night as my picks ended up 2-1 with my big play on the Blue Jays cashing alongside a nice underdog win by the Pirates. The Cardinals let me down but finished up +4.98 Units for the night, taking me back into + Units overall.

Current Record: 8-6 / +2.84 Units

I will post today's selections shortly, although I may struggle again for time to post my analyses. Best of luck all!

[Adam Bond]

I have 3 picks again for tonight's games.

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Pick: NY Yankees -1.5 run line (+100 odds)
Risking 2.5 Units to win 2.5 Units

Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: TEX Rangers moneyline (-124 odds)
Risking 1.91 Units to win 1.5 Units

Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics
Pick: OAK Athletics moneyline (-140 odds)
Risking 3.5 Units to win 2.5 Units

[Adam Bond]

Adding a selection..

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: STL Cardinals moneyline -130 odds

Risking 2.60 Units to win 2 Units

[Adam Bond]

Adding 5th and final pick.. (Big night again tonight)

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Pick: NY Mets moneyline (-118 odds)

Risking 2.36 Units to win 2 Units