Front Page Picks (Wed., Jun 18)

[Willie Bee]

Toronto Blue Jays +115 with Marcum over Brewers & Sheets

Game Time: 06/18/2008 08:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Shaun Marcum actually has a slightly better ERA and WHIP than Ben Sheets this season, so don’t be surprised if this game is decided by the pens. Advantage Jays.

This expected pitchers’ duel is a contrast in styles, as the precise Shaun Marcum of the Toronto Blue Jays taking on the harder throwing Ben Sheets of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Still, Marcum has been very Greg Maddux-esque in his prime this season, with a 2.43 ERA and a fantastic 0.99 WHIP in 92.2 innings. He has also maintained his for extremely well, allowing exactly one run in three of his last four starts and two runs in the other outing. Marcum has been a model of consistency, allowing three earned runs or less in 12 of his 14 starts this season, and if he is in need of relief, he has the support of a Toronto pen that ranks fifth in the Major Leagues with a 3.13 ERA.

Now Sheets is obviously one of the best pitchers in the league, as he is 7-1 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. However, this may be the first time all year that he actually has a higher ERA and WHIP than his mound opponent. Still, Sheets has been unhittable at times, so do not be surprised if this is a tight contest late that will be decided by the bullpens.

This would strongly favor underdog Toronto, as the Brewers rank 19th in the majors with a 4.12 pen ERA.

Free Pick: Blue Jays +115

[Willie Bee]

Detroit Tigers -140 take down Giants

Game Time: 06/18/2008 03:45 PM -
By: Bread | sbrforum.com

The Tigers have recovered from their slow start; the Giants and Barry Zito have not. The value today is on the Detroit Tigers as the road favorites to end their series in San Francisco.

Wednesday, the Tigers play the Giants in an interleague day game at San Francisco. Unless Joe Montana is pitching and Jerry Rice is playing catcher, this should be a pretty easy wager to hit. At this point, even Elvis Grbac to J.J. Stokes would be a spark to this sad Giants team.

Detroit has been recovering from their horrendous start and putting together some nice wins as of late. Armando Galarraga, easily the Tigers most effective starting pitcher this year, will be getting the call.

I'll admit, earlier this year, when I heard they had a guy named Galarraga pitching for them, I immediately thought of the old dude in that weird uniform from Montreal. That's right kids, Montreal used to have a baseball team. Strange, I know. For what it's worth, Vancouver used to have an NBA team.

What?!

Matching up against Armando will be San Francisco lefty Barry Zito. To say that Barry has been a disappointing signing this year is a huge understatement. He has stolen more money from the state of California than Robert DeNiro in Heat.

Galarraga is making about $548 billion less than Zito this year, and has an ERA more than two runs lower. It's a good thing that San Francisco just recently started allowing gay marriages, or the Zito signing may have prompted city-wide depression!

Detroit is starting to look good and San Fran is just along for the ride. With the discrepancy in starting pitching, the Tigers are fantastic value favorites.

Free Pick: Tigers -140

[Willie Bee]

Pittsburgh Pirates +155 at White Sox

Game Time: 06/18/2008 08:10 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | covers.com

The White Sox erupted for 11 unanswered runs to take the series opener, but Chicago will find the going tougher against Tom Gorzelanny and the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday.

The White Sox easily took this first game last night but they are not playing good baseball right now. After running off seven straight wins, Chicago is just 2-5 over its last seven games as the offense has been hit or miss.

Tuesday, the lineup broke open a 5-5 game with 11 unanswered runs as it was able to get to the Pirates bullpen. The recent interleague record has not been favorable as the White Sox have won only two of their last nine home games against the senior circuit.

Pittsburgh has been playing much better of late. The Bucs are 12-10 over their last 22 games and 22-17 over the last 39. The Pirates have won seven of their last nine games following a loss and they have dropped back-to-back games only three times since May 22. They are obviously a much better team at home than on the road, but after starting the year 6-12 away from home they are a respectable 7-10 over the last 17 roadies. Pittsburgh is 8-3 over its last 11 games against a left-handed starting pitcher.

It has been a rough season thus far for Tom Gorzelanny but his last three outings have been quite positive. Three starts back, he allowed four early runs against the Cardinals and looked like he was going to make an early exit before he rebounded to throw three scoreless innings. In his last two outings, he has allowed three runs in each with one of those being a quality start while the other fell short of quality by just a third of an inning. Chicago is hitting a dismal .224 against lefties including .205 over the last 10 games.

Mark Buehrle has looked solid over the last three starts as all three have been quality outings. He has not strung together four straight quality starts since the middle of last season and this is the first time this year he went past two. This is where is could very well end despite his solid past performances against the Pirates.

The White Sox are just 5-9 in his 14 starts this season and Pittsburgh has hit lefties well, batting .272 on the season including .286 over the last 10 games. Play Pittsburgh for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Pirates +155

[Willie Bee]

Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers -125 to clip Toronto Blue Jays

Game Time: 06/18/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Ben Sheets is in great form and the Brewers have won four of his last five starts. Make your play on Milwaukee at home in Miller park against the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.

When the Brewers send big Ben Sheets to the hill in Milwaukee this evening against Shawn Marcum and the Toronto Blue Jays, they'll do so knowing Sheets is in great KW form with six walks and 46 strikeouts in his last eight starts.

In his last two starts, both in hitter-friendly parks at Colorado and Houston, Sheets has tossed 13 innings and allowed just four runs. He's also 5-0 in his last five home starts in June and 5-1 on Wednesday the last three years.

With Marcum winless in his last four June starts, look for Sheets and the Brewers to trounce Toronto here tonight.

Free Pick: Brewers -125

[Willie Bee]

Tigers -139 to shrink SF Giants

Game Time: 06/18/2008 03:45 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Detroit has taken down 40 of the last 60 southpaw starters they have faced, and it should be an easy task to build on that today when the Tigers meet Barry Zito and the Giants.

Our Wednesday afternoon MLB selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Giants in San Francisco's AT&T Park.

Last night, we won our strongest play of the season-to-date (our Interleague Game of the Year) on these same Detroit Tigers, and many of the same reasons for that release are present this afternoon. As I mentioned yesterday, the Tigers murder lefties, and have won 40 of their last 60 games vs. southpaw starters.

Moreover, Detroit is an incredible 34-10 its last 44 vs. the National League in Interleague play. It just doesn't get any better than that! And going into last night's game, Detroit was hitting 28 points higher vs. lefties than righties (.289 vs. .261) and is now 12-5 vs. lefties this season (compared to 21-33 vs. righties). Today, they catch an additional break as one of the worst lefties this season is Barry Zito, a complete bust for the Giants since leaving their crosstown rivals the A's after the 2006 season.

Zito is a miserable 2-10 this year, and he'll be matched up against a terrific looking rookie for Detroit (Armando Galarraga), whose ERA is 3.31 to go with a 6-2 record. Galarraga is coming off his best performance of the year, a seven-innings of three-hit shutout ball vs. the Dodgers, and has won his last three starts. He's also been his best away from home, compiling a 4-1 record with a 2.33 ERA in five starts.

Free Pick: Tigers -139

[Willie Bee]

St. Louis Cardinals -135 vs. Royals

Game Time: 06/18/2008 08:15 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

It's another Show Me showdown tonight between Kansas City and St. Louis, and the Cardinals have the pitching advantage plus the home fans behind them against the Royals.

Brian Bannister, the starting pitcher for the Kansas City Royals tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals, is just 2-6 in his last11 starts along with a hefty 6.36 ERA. The right-hander has looked particularly bad on the road, where is 0-4 along with a ugly 11.74 ERA in his last five starts away from Kansas City.

His pitching opponent from the Cards, Braden Looper (8-5, 4.34 ERA), looked fantastic in his last start, recording his first career shutout while retiring the last11 batters he faced. I expect he will carry the momentum of his last win into this tilt.

Bottom line: Considering Bannister's road troubles and Loopers last performance, the pitching matchup very much favors the Cardinals, as does home field advantage. With that said, I'm recommending we back St.Louis to bring home the dough on the moneyline.

Final Notes & Key Trends: The Cardinals are 5-0 in Looper's last five starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. KC has lost 20 of their 28 games overall. Play on the Cards.

Free Pick: Cardinals -135

[Willie Bee]

Marlins -105 at Seattle Mariners

Game Time: 06/18/2008 10:10 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

Though his knuckler baffled hitters out of the pen, Seattle's R.A. Dickey hasn't been able to duplicate that success as a starter. Follow the Florida Marlins tonight at the Mariners.

R.A. Dickey is on the mound for the Mariners on Wednesday night as they close out their series at home in Seattle with the Florida Marlins.

Dickey has been tremendous out of the pen for Seattle, but the knuckleballer's two starts were both pretty ugly. The Mariners could have another tough offensive night here against the serves of Marlins rookie Ryan Tucker.

He's one of the best prospects in the Florida system, featuring a big fastball that regularly checks in at 95+. Tucker's command is still not there and he's going to have some rough spots for sure. But against a soft Seattle offense that doesn't always show much patience, Tucker has a good shot to nail down a win tonight.

I'll go with the Marlins to score the road win over the inept Mariners.

Free Pick: Marlins -105

[Willie Bee]

Atlanta Braves -105 over Rangers

Game Time: 06/18/2008 08:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Jo-Jo Reyes as been a pleasant surprise this season, and he is one of the few Braves pitchers that has maintained his form on the road, with a 3.32 ERA. Take the Braves vs. young Eric Hurley tonight.

Jo-Jo Reyes of the Atlanta Braves is in raging form right now, and he is one of the few Braves that have not minded pitching on the road, so he gets the call over young Eric Hurley and the Texas Rangers tonight.

Reyers allowed just two runs and five hits at Anaheim in a 5-2 Braves win in his last start, giving him three Quality Starts in his last four outing. Even more encouraging is the fact that Reyes has a nice 3.32 ERA and an outstanding 1.06 WHIP on the road this season, and the southpaw should be tough on a Texas lineup that is hitting .220 vs. left-handers over the last 10 games and has never seen him before.

Hurley is making his second Major League start for Texas, and he was only decent in his first start in what turned out to be a 6-5 Rangers loss at Kansas City. Hurley is certainly not a highly regarded prospect, and he was only 2-5 with a 5.30 ERA in AAA ball before his call-up.

As if that is not bad enough, Texas might be without clean-up hitter Milton Bradley tonight after he injured a quad muscle last night.

Free Pick: Braves -105

[Willie Bee]

Detroit Tigers -142 to spank Zito and San Francisco Giants

Game Time: 06/18/2008 03:45 PM -
By: Stephen Nover | covers.com

With a solid record against left-handers, and facing one of this season's worst southpaws in San Francisco's Barry Zito, the Detroit Tigers are the play at the Giants.

Maybe Barry Zito can win a home game for the Giants. Yeah, and maybe the price of gas will start going down.

Wishing is one thing, reality is another. The Giants' reality is they have dropped six of their last seven home games, have failed to score more than three runs in five of their last seven games and aren't good enough to beat any quality club unless Tim Lincecum is pitching.

Zito is not Lincecum. He's the free agent bust poster child. Zito is 0-6 at AT&T Park this season with a 6.60 ERA. The southpaw is 0-4 in day games with an ERA of close to 8.00.

The Tigers are 11-5 versus lefties. They are hitting close to .300 against them. Detroit is coming on, winning nine of its last 11 games. There's a big differrence between these teams. The Tigers are much better. The pitching matchup favors Detroit, too.

Rookie Armando Galarraga has been more than solid, especially on the road and in day contests. He's 4-1 away from Detroit with a 2.23 ERA. He's also 3-0 during the day with an ERA under 2.00.

The Tigers have won eight of Galarraga's 10 starts.

Free Pick: Tigers -142