Front Page Picks (Tue., Jun 17)

Willie Bee · 06-17-08, 01:24 PM

Wolf & Pettitte to keep San Diego Padres, New York Yankees Under 9

Game Time: 06/17/2008 07:05 PM -
By: The Prez | who2beton.com

With two quality left-handers on the hill, Randy Wolf for the visiting Padres and Andy Pettitte for the Yankees, look for tonight's tilt in the Bronx to stay under the total.

Randy Wolf (5-4, 3.83) will make his first-ever start in Yankee Stadium. He's allowed just one run in each of his last three starts, and pitched seven innings while matching a season-high with nine strikeouts in a 4-1 win over the Dodgers on Wednesday.

With three wins and two no decisions in the last five starts, the Wolf deserves some soft applause for carrying the Padres pitching staff while Jake Peavy and Chris Young were down and out. The southpaw has six consecutive quality starts and sports a 2.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9 during that span. Wolf's home and away splits are unattractive, but given the fact that he has very little history against the Yankees' lineup and New York struggles against left-handed starters, he figures to be good for two turns through the batting order tonight.

Wolf vs. New York hitters
Johnny Damon is 1-for-6
Derek Jeter is 1-for-3
Chad Moeller is 0-for-2
Jorge Posada is 1-for-3

No other Yankee has any first hand experience against Wolf – Advantage Wolf.

Andy Pettitte (6-5, 4.64 ERA) allowed just a run over eight innings at Oakland in New York's 4-1 win. The 36-year old Pettitte has pitched better than his statline, and he’s inducing ground balls at a rate well above his career peripheral. The southpaw is at his best when coming off high pitch counts, which isn’t a surprise considering his experience and his style of pitching.

In each of his starts this year that have followed a 100-plus pitch count outing, he’s come back with quality starts save a four-inning stint against the Rays on May 12th. That performance in Tropicana saw the lefty get little help from inconsistent home plate umpire Dan Iassogna and an aging Yankees defense. Pettitte’s last start in Oakland saw him throw 113 pitches over eight innings.

Pettitte’s K/BB (6.3) and K/9 (3.05) rates are the best they’ve been since his ’05 season in Houston, a campaign that saw him go 17-9 while striking out 171 batters in 222 innings. Pettitte’s Achilles’ this year has been the home run ball. After two sloppy outings against the Indians and Tigers in late April, starts that saw him give up two home runs in each game and five total in the month, he’s only allowed three in May and June (not counting the two wind aided long balls by KC in a 10 hit and 10 run loss where he was just plain unlucky).

Pettitte vs. San Diego hitters:
Michael Barrett is 6-for-18 with two home runs
Tony Clark is 5-for-28 (.179) with one home run
Jody Gerut is 1-for-3
Brian Giles is 3-for-13 (.231)
Adrian Gonzalez is 1-for-5
Khalil Greene is 1-for-5

San Diego is 29th in the majors at 3.8 per game and is hitting .237 against left-handed starters. The Under is 4-0 in the Padres' last four interleague games vs. a team with a winning record, and is 4-0 in Wolf's last four starts overall.

The Under is 12-3-1 in the Yankees' last 16 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200; is 6-1-1 in Pettitte's last 8 interleague starts; is 9-2 in Pettitte's last 11 starts with the total set at 9.0-10½, and is 9-3 in Pettitte's last 12 starts on grass.

Pitchers: Randy Wolf vs. Andy Pettitte
Umpire: Unannounced
Conditions: 73 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing to left field at 10 MPH. Temps and wind speeds are expected to drop rapidly as the game progresses with an overnight low of 55 expected in the Big Apple.

Free Pick: Padres-Yankees Under 9 (-110)

Willie Bee · 06-17-08, 01:26 PM

Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds Under 9

Game Time: 06/17/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

In the only non-interleague contest on the slate, look for the Reds' Johnny Cueto and the Dodgers' Chad Billingsley to keep the Los Angeles and Cincinnati lineups quiet.

The Los Angeles Dodgers look to snap a season high-tying five-game losing streak Tuesday night when they open a three-game road series against the Reds in Cincinnati.

Though they’re in second place in the weak NL West, the Dodgers (31-38) have yet to perform like a team bound for the postseason. They’ve lost 17 of 23 games since May 23, including their last five by a combined 35-12 to fall a season-worst seven games below .500.

The Reds (33-38) haven’t fared much better than the Dodgers lately, losing nine of their last 14 and getting shut out three times in that stretch. They were held to six hits in a 9-0 loss to Boston on Sunday. Cincinnati could struggle again tonight against Chad Billingsley whose last win came against the Reds on May 20.

Billingsley, who grew up in Defiance, Ohio, pitched seven scoreless innings in that 4-1 victory, improving to 1-1 with a 0.68 ERA in three career games – two starts – against Cincinnati. The Dodgers are winless in Billingsley’s last four starts, in part because they’ve given the right-hander six total runs of support in those games.

Cincinnati will counter with rookie Johnny Cueto who is making his second start against the Dodgers. He allowed four runs – two earned – in five innings of a 5-2 loss May 21. These aren’t scoring much lately and there past series meetings have produced low numbers as well. I say the young guns – Billingsley and Cueto – will keep the bats in check tonight.

Free Pick: Dodgers Reds Under 9 (-120)

Willie Bee · 06-17-08, 01:27 PM

Minnesota Twins -120 vs Nationals

Game Time: 06/17/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Livan Hernandez should find success pitching against one of his former clubs tonight. Make your play in the Minnesota Twins at home when they host the Washington Nationals.

Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Minnesota Twins at home in the Metrodome over the Washington Nationals.

Twins veteran right-hander Livan Hernandez has pitched for a lot of teams in his now 13-year career, and tonight he faces one of his former teams in interleague play. Hernandez had some of his best years with the Montreal Expos (now Washinton Nationals) between 2003 and 2006. He has had some pretty ugly pitching lines lately, but those have been against some pretty heavy-hitting and high-scoring teams like the Yankees, White Sox, and Rangers. The Nationals are neither a heavy-hitting nor high-scoring team, so look for Hernandez's luck to change this evening.

Despite sweeping the worst team in baseball in their just concluded, three-game interleague series in Seattle, the Nats had been struggling mightily prior to their visit to Safeco Field, having gone 2-10 in the 12 games leading up to that. Washington continues to battle injuries to key offensive players such as Ryan Zimmerman, Paul LoDuca, Nick Johnson and Austin Kearns, while the Twins remain relatively healthy and seem to be on the improve of late.

The Nats are also 2-7 in their last nine games following a win. Take the Twins.

Free Pick: Twins -120

Willie Bee · 06-17-08, 01:28 PM

Marlins +125 at Seattle Mariners

Game Time: 06/17/2008 10:10 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | phoenixsports.com

The Mariners will have their ace Felix Hernandez on the mound, but with their offense incapable of scoring presently Seattle will fall to Scott Olsen and the visiting Florida Marlins.

I'm playing the Florida Marlins on the road in Seattle against the lowly Mariners on Tuesday night. Some things in handicapping/wagering are quite simple. This is one of them. You either play against the floundering Mariners, or you stay away from the game.

Tonight, we'll go against them.

Seattle has been horrible in a number of situations this season, but are especially bad in night action against southpaws. The Mariners enter tonight's tilt just 2-11 in this spot, scoring about 3.8 runs per game.

Scott Olsen has pitched extremely well for the visitor this season. The Florida lefty owns a 1.22 WHIP and .209 BAA in five road starts. The Mariners will counter with Felix Hernandez who has pitched well. But he just won't get enough support to end Seattle's skid, as far as I'm concerned. I'll back the Florida Marlins to extend Seattle's misery.

Free Pick: Marlins +125

Willie Bee · 06-17-08, 01:30 PM

NY Mets +101 to ground Angels

Game Time: 06/17/2008 10:05 PM -
By: Steve Merril | 10starpicks.com

The waiting game is over for the Mets after manager Willie Randolph was fired earlier this morning. Look for New York to top the Angels in their first game under Jerry Manuel.

The Mets fired manager Willie Randolph at 3:00 a.m. ET this morning, despite an impressive 9-6 win last night in Anaheim. Teams normally respond well to mid-season coaching changes and tonight’s game fits a long-term 60% winning situation based on that premise.

New York’s offense remains red hot and has scored seven or more runs in three of their past four games, and we get excellent value with the most dominant pitcher in baseball the past few seasons at an underdog price. Johan Santana has a fantastic 2.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 14 starts this season with a 86-24 strikeout/walk ratio.

He has been even stronger on the road with a 2.80 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with a 44-10 ratio, including an incredible 0.87 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his past three starts overall. Play New York.

Free Pick: Mets +101

Willie Bee · 06-17-08, 01:31 PM

NY Yankees -165 vs. SD Padres

Game Time: 06/17/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

The Bronx Bombers are red hot on offense, and with Andy Pettitte on the Bronx bump the winning will continue for the New York Yankees on Tuesday when the host the San Diego Padres.

The Yankees bats exploded this past weekend, scoring 23 runs in a three-game sweep of the Houston Astros. With momentum behind them I expect they will continue their current run against San Diego Padres in the Bronx Zoo tonight.

Look for and expect veteran hurler Andy Pettitte (6-5, 4.64 ERA) to out-pitch San Diego Padres starting thrower Randy Wolfe (5-4, 3.83 ERA).

Final Notes & Key Trends: Wolfe has pitched better at home than he has on the road this season, as is evident by his team losing all five of his road starts. Play on the Yankees.

Free Pick: Yankees -165

Willie Bee · 06-17-08, 01:32 PM

San Diego Padres +160 over Yankees

Game Time: 06/17/2008 07:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Randy Wolf is in amazing form right now, allowing one run in each of his last three starts, while Andy Pettitte has been terrible at home with a 6.25 ERA. Dog the Padres at this very generous price.

The San Diego Padres simply ooze value at this price with Randy Wolf on the hill tonight vs. Andy Pettitte and the New York Yankees.

Wolf is quite simply in raging form right now. He has recorded six straight Quality Starts, but that does not tell the entire story of just how hot he has been, as he has allowed exactly one run in each of his last three starts and exactly two runs in the two starts before that.

Pettitte is but a shell of his former self, and he has become rather inconsistent this season, seemingly alternating good and bad efforts. One constant for Pettitte though has been his poor pitching at home, where he is 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA and a1.47 WHIP. The last time he pitched in Yankee Stadium, he was torched for 10 earned runs in 6.2 innings by the Kansas City Royals.

Finally, the Padres have been playing much better baseball lately, going 8-3 in their ;last 11 games.

Free Pick: Padres +160