MexicanStallion's MLB Thread

[MexicanStallion]

At least it's a 4 game series. Not the worst bet with a push possible. Here's what I'm on tomorrow


1x Hou
5x Mil
5x Ari TTover (probably going to be 3.5)
2x Nym @ SF over 6.5

Any opinions?

Greinke is much better than his ERA shows. Lohse has a 5.0 xfip in his last 5 starts. Houston is more of a fade of Vazquez. Vogelsong is going to regress eventually.

For series bets, they only count the first 3 games, but at least I have a shot to get some money back on that Seattle loss. Need Angels to win one of the next 2 games.

I don't play totals or do TT's. I can't help you much there. I only guess totals with the Reds games, but usually don't play any of them. I am a huge Reds supporter, so clearly I don't care for your Milwaukee pick

Greinke is a good pitcher but I think it's easy to say he has been a disappointment so far. Good W-L record but an era in the mid 5's. The Reds have been pathetic to watch. Basically it's up to Votto, Gomes and Hernandez to get something done. They have some minor good success against Greinke. Renteria will most likely start instead of Cozart too I'm sure which kind of takes away a bat in my opinion. Leake is the 2nd best pitcher on The Reds Staff now (Not saying much), but I'd take my chances on Leake tonight as the Home Dog.

Astros They kind of tick me off since I had some bets on them lately and clearly they have been awful. Not sure what I would do with that. I lean Marlins.

Will post my plays later.

[MexicanStallion]

July 8th
Braves ML +156
5.00 to win 7.80
Orioles ML +205
5.00 to win 10.25
Athletics ML +142
5.00 to win 7.10

OAK/TX Over 8.5 +105
5.00 to win 5.25
AZ/STL Over 7.5 +105
5.00 to win 5.25

BAL/BOS No Score 1st Inning -115
2.88 to win 2.50
NYM/SF No Score 1st Inning -150
7.50 to win 5.00

[MexicanStallion]

Az No Score -140
To win 3
Oak No Score -130
To win 3

[EXhoosier10]

Good news for the Angels bet (as I see you already knew since you picked him up at 6am in fantasy) is that Trout is up. Hopefully he gets off to a hot two game start and then doesn't get a hit for the next 2 weeks

[EXhoosier10]

And there's the blowup from Lohse that I was hoping for. Arizona TT hits.

[EXhoosier10]

Probably going to make a pretty small play on Milwaukee TTo3.5 today as my only play. Cueto has been dominant, but Masset and Ondrusek have pitched 3 days in a row and Coco may get the day off after throwing 30 pitches yesterday. Chapman and arredondo both haven't pitched in a couple of days, so we can expect one or the other to get the first call today which helps our case. I'm doubtful that Braun plays, but in the L5 games, the Brewers are still hitting at league average, which isn't terrible.

Same situation for Kansas City. Furbush has a 6+ FIP in his L5 games and Valverde and Al Alburquerque are out for detroit. KC hasn't hit all that well recently, so maybe I'll make this bet a bit smaller than the Milwaukee game. TT is probably sitting at 4.5 for KC.

[MexicanStallion]

July 9th
Atlanta Braves +134
5.00 to win 6.70
Braves/Phillies No Score 1st Inning -165
16.50 to win 10.00
Padres/Dodgers No Score 1st Inning -135
4.05 to win 3.00

[MexicanStallion]

And there's the blowup from Lohse that I was hoping for. Arizona TT hits.

Congrats on the winner. Do you have a thread or what's your numbers like in MLB?

Probably going to make a pretty small play on Milwaukee TTo3.5 today as my only play. Cueto has been dominant, but Masset and Ondrusek have pitched 3 days in a row and Coco may get the day off after throwing 30 pitches yesterday. Chapman and arredondo both haven't pitched in a couple of days, so we can expect one or the other to get the first call today which helps our case. I'm doubtful that Braun plays, but in the L5 games, the Brewers are still hitting at league average, which isn't terrible.

Same situation for Kansas City. Furbush has a 6+ FIP in his L5 games and Valverde and Al Alburquerque are out for detroit. KC hasn't hit all that well recently, so maybe I'll make this bet a bit smaller than the Milwaukee game. TT is probably sitting at 4.5 for KC.

Again I am not much help with TT type plays. Cueto has been pitching like an ace. He has allowed 1 run in 4 of his last 5 starts. Fielder hit him well though. Masset and Ondrusek both have been overused all season long. Chapman and Arredondo both pitched Wednesday. They are fresh. Chapman has been lights out since returning from the DL/Minors. Given up one run in his last 6 innings with 2 hits and one walk allowed.

[MexicanStallion]

July 9th
Arizona DBacks +128
5.00 to win 6.40
Oakland Athletics +157
5.00 to win 7.85
Mariners/Angels No Score 1st Inning -150
7.50 to win 5.00
Mets/Giants No Score 1st Inning -150
7.50 to win 5.00

[MexicanStallion]

July 8th
Braves ML +156
5.00 to win 7.80
Orioles ML +205
5.00 to win 10.25
Athletics ML +142
5.00 to win 7.10

OAK/TX Over 8.5 +105
5.00 to win 5.25
AZ/STL Over 7.5 +105
5.00 to win 5.25

BAL/BOS No Score 1st Inning -115
2.88 to win 2.50
NYM/SF No Score 1st Inning -150
7.50 to win 5.00

July 8th
3-4 (-2.38 Units)

Season: 11-12 (-3.92 Units)
Moneyline: 1-6 (-21.40 Units)
Totals: 2-0 (+10.50 Units)
No Score: 8-6 (+6.98 Units)

[MexicanStallion]

Cubs/Pirates No Score 1st Inning -120
3.60 to win 3.00
Reds/Brewers No Score 1st Inning -125
3.75 to win 3.00
DBacks/Cardinals No Score 1st Inning -140
4.90 to win 3.50
Mariners/Angels No Score 1st Inning -140
7.00 to win 5.00

[JR007]

Good luck Mex

[MexicanStallion]

Good luck Mex

Thanks JR. Best of luck on your plays

[EXhoosier10]

Congrats on the winner. Do you have a thread or what's your numbers like in MLB?

No thread. Had one, nobody posted thoughts even when I did give writeups so I closed up shop.

I'm hitting at exactly 50%, but I'm up somewhere between 20-30 units on the year, +9.05% ROI.

Since you're tossing money at this no run 1st inning prop, I'm assuming you have some house money to toss around this yeaR?

[MexicanStallion]

No thread. Had one, nobody posted thoughts even when I did give writeups so I closed up shop.

I'm hitting at exactly 50%, but I'm up somewhere between 20-30 units on the year, +9.05% ROI.

Since you're tossing money at this no run 1st inning prop, I'm assuming you have some house money to toss around this yeaR?

Yeah I hear you. Well feel free to post your picks here if you want to. I know you started to do some.

Congrats on the nice work so far this season.

I had some extra money. While I was not posting, I was betting the No Score Prop and it got really hot at one point. I think I had 15-2 or something. Yesterday was a disaster though. 2 Errors in 1st Inning of 2 Games and 2 Walk offs.

[MexicanStallion]

July 10th
Mariners/Angels No Score 1st Inning (-175)
8.75 to win 5.00
Padres/Dodgers No Score 1st Inning (-140)
7.00 to win 5.00

[EXhoosier10]

What kind of system is it Mex? Something you developed?

[MexicanStallion]

July 9th
Atlanta Braves +134
5.00 to win 6.70
Braves/Phillies No Score 1st Inning -165
16.50 to win 10.00
Padres/Dodgers No Score 1st Inning -135
4.05 to win 3.00

July 9th
Arizona DBacks +128
5.00 to win 6.40
Oakland Athletics +157
5.00 to win 7.85
Mariners/Angels No Score 1st Inning -150
7.50 to win 5.00
Mets/Giants No Score 1st Inning -150
7.50 to win 5.00

Cubs/Pirates No Score 1st Inning -120
3.60 to win 3.00
Reds/Brewers No Score 1st Inning -125
3.75 to win 3.00
DBacks/Cardinals No Score 1st Inning -140
4.90 to win 3.50
Mariners/Angels No Score 1st Inning -140
7.00 to win 5.00

July 9th
5-6 (-0.05 Units)

Season: 16-18 (-3.97 Units)
Moneyline: 2-8 (-24.70 Units)
Totals: 2-0 (+10.50 Units)
No Score: 12-10 (+10.23 Units)

[MexicanStallion]

July 10th
Mariners/Angels No Score 1st Inning (-175)
8.75 to win 5.00
Padres/Dodgers No Score 1st Inning (-140)
7.00 to win 5.00

July 10th
1-1 (-3.75 Units)

Season: 17-19 (-7.72 Units)
Moneyline: 2-8 (-24.70 Units)
Totals: 2-0 (+10.50 Units)
No Score: 13-11 (+6.48 Units)

[MexicanStallion]

July 12th
AL/NL no score 1st inn -145
7.25 to win 5.00
AL/NL 1st inning runs scored Under 1.5 (-290)
4.35 to win 2.50

[MexicanStallion]

AL/NL no score 1st inn -145
7.25 to win 5.00

[MexicanStallion]

July 12th
AL/NL no score 1st inn -145
7.25 to win 5.00
AL/NL 1st inning runs scored Under 1.5 (-290)
4.35 to win 2.50

AL/NL no score 1st inn -145
7.25 to win 5.00

July 12th
3-0 (+12.50 Units)
Season: 20-19 (+4.78 Units)
Moneyline: 2-8 (-24.70 Units)
Totals: 2-0 (+10.50 Units)
No Score: 15-11 (+16.48 Units)
Prop: 1-0 (+2.50 Units)

[MexicanStallion]

July 14th
Baltimore Orioles +101
5.00 to win 5.05
Toronto Blues Jays +128
5.00 to win 6.40
Indians/Orioles No Score 1st Inning (-120)
6.60 to win 5.50

[EXhoosier10]

I had a lot of plays today but decided to only play 2 since I'm not too hot about playing games the day after the break.

SF and KC. Decided to lay off cleveland

[EXhoosier10]

Playin LAd and TB FF large today. Really like both of these games, hope the AS break doesn't have any effect on these things

[MexicanStallion]

Boston Red Sox ML +145
5.00 to win 7.25
Washington Nationals ML +160
5.00 to win 8.00

[MexicanStallion]

Oakland Athletics ML Game 1 +110
5.00 to win 5.50
Boston Red Sox ML +129
5.00 to win 6.45
Los Angeles Dodgers +123
5.00 to win 6.15

Will update thread when I have more time available. Should start betting heavy favorites at the pace my ML plays are going.

[MexicanStallion]

Angels/Athletics Game #1 No Score -170
6.80 to win 4.00

[EXhoosier10]

Had a great weekend in Vegas winning 8 of 9 including some big bets on Greinke and Weaver. Hoping to keep it going with Phi and ATL tonight