Clueless baseball thread

[Clueless_Norway]

OK. Im starting from scratch using units instead of straight cash and will post lines(bet365) and for some games a little writeup.
I'll try to post the late games by 2-3 PM and early games by 10-11 PM... 1 unit are $100.

Friday
Lets get a good start(?):
Parlay:
# Angels/Tigers +205 4 units

Sides, 5 unit each:
# Cubs +123
# Rockies +135 (POD)
# Astros +141
# RedSox +114

Rockies: I realy like the Rockies at White Sox today. the bigest reason is that the Sox can't hit lefties their L10 games with a .210 avg and a low 2.52 R/9. Also Francis have been good L3 games with a 3.00 ERA in 18 IP and one of them was at Wrigley Field where he gave up just 3 runs... The Rockies pen have been good too with a 1.04 ERA in 17.1 IP L3 games.
I think that the Rockies got a big boost from Holliday's return and that they got a good shot on continue too picking up wins and move closer too the struggling D'Backs...

GL fellow cappers

[element1286]

GL bro. I was thinking about playing the Cubs, but decided to lay off.

[BadBeatBodog]

I like the Rockies. Here's a little blurb I wrote about Floyd vs. Francis on another forum:

I do not see a SP advantage for the CWS in this game. Sure Floyd's numbers on the surface look good but his FIP is 4.67 same as Francis and his xFIP is 4.88, higher than Francis' of 4.44.

Using Floyd's xFIP we can figure out that his LOB% going forward should be 69.9% while it's 73.6% right now. Francis' LOB% is right at expected level.

Not surprisingly, considering Floyd has the biggest negative gap of any pitcher between his FIP and ERA, he is helped immensely by the defense around him. He has a DER of .797 (.1 above league average!), the highest of any SP. On top of that, he has the lowest LD% in MLB at 12.2%, far below the league average of 19%.

GL clueless

[Clueless_Norway]

Thanks... I got the Rockies as my POD

[Clueless_Norway]

Sautrday Early Games

Started realy bad with a 0-5 and -24 units...
Todays early games:

# Cubs TOT RUNS O3½ (-115)Diamond 2 units
# Phillies TOT RUNS O4½ (-120)Diamond 2.9 units
# Blue Jays FF (-145)Bet365 2 units

Gonna try a 3 team parlay too, just for fun:
# Reds
# Rays
# Rays O9.5
* 0.5 units (+391) Bet365

GL cappers..

[ryanXL977]

reds
oak


locks!!!!

[Clueless_Norway]

So far today:

# Cubs TOT RUNS O3½
# Blue Jays FF
# Tigers TT O4½
# Russia

3 games pending

Today
Totals: 2-0
Sides: 1-1
Units: +3.7
Record
Sides: 1-5
Parlay: 0-1
Totals: 2-0
Units: -20.6

[Clueless_Norway]

Go Villa...!!!! What a player!!! Scores the winning goal for Spain 2 min on overtime Got $1000 to win $610... was a bit scary this one, lol

Someone on the Greece vs Russia later today??

[Dashwood Clipper]

Go Villa...!!!! What a player!!! Scores the winning goal for Spain 2 min on overtime Got $1000 to win $610... was a bit scary this one, lol

Someone on the Greece vs Russia later today??

Russia, what you think?
Cashed on over 2 goals Sweden/Spain.

[Clueless_Norway]

Good pick on the over... I like Russia, but I can see a tie in this one with Russias Arshavin, but screw it... Let's hope for a Nikopolidis mistake and a Russia win.

Russia +125 2 units

[Dashwood Clipper]

Good pick on the over... I like Russia, but I can see a tie in this one with Russias Arshavin, but screw it... Let's hope for a Nikopolidis mistake and a Russia win.

Russia +125 2 units

Russia for the Win. Will set up a great qualification match between Russia/Sweden. Greece didnt impress me against Sweden, Russia played well but were in over their head against Spain. Lets go Russia.

[ryanXL977]

i did russia -150 for macth tie or win

[Clueless_Norway]

I like Sweden against Russia... Sweden was lucky to not loose by more than one (unlycky with the time of the second goal tho), but they was better than Spain in first half after Spains first goal... I think Zlatan gonna be to much for Russia

[Clueless_Norway]

Adding two more with 2 units on each:

# Tigers TOT RUNS O4½ (-130)Diamond
# RedSox TOT RUNS U4 (-125)Diamond

[Clueless_Norway]

Another bad day:

# Cubs TOT RUNS O3½
# Blue Jays FF
# Tigers TT O4½
# Russia
# RedSox TOT RUNS U4
# Reds/Rays/Rays O9.5
# Phillies TOT RUNS O4½

Today
Totals: 2-2
Sides: 1-1
Parlay: 0-1
Units: -1.7
Record
Sides: 1-5
Parlay: 0-3
Totals: 2-2
Units: -26

[Clueless_Norway]

Sunday 15/6

I'll try to get my first pluss day in this thread today:

# RedSox TT RUNS o5 (-110)Diamond 2 units
# Pirates TT RUNS o4½ (-110)Diamond 2 units
# Marlins TT RUNS o4½ (+105)Diamond 2 units
# Rays TT RUNS u5 (-120)Diamond 2 units
# Twins (+116)Bet365 4 units

# Tigers
# RedSox -1.5
* 3 units (+256)Bet365

# Padres
# Jays U8.5
* 3 units(+376)Bet365

Padres: i realy like Maddux today as he have been great in his L3 starts with a 1.89 ERA. He havn't given up more than top two runs in his L5 games and of those 5 he got 3 games where he has given up two runs. He got two 1 run game in a row against the Cubs and the Dodgers.
Sabathia have been good/ok in his L3 starts with a 3.13 ERA and got a shutout in his last start. But in his two starts befor that he gave up 2x 4 runs...
Jays U8.5: Lilly vs Litsch, Lilly have started to picking up his game while Litsch have been good all year and especally in day games. There he got a great 1.27 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP in 35.1 innings() The Jays have been ok vs lefties their L10 games hitting .277 while the Cubs are hitting .245 against righties and they aren't as good hitting on the road as at home.. Also the Jays have been struggling batting lately(back to early season again?) batting .238 with 2.70 R/9 their L5 games. Under is 4-0-1 in their last meeting in Toronto and the Jays are 4-0-1 on the under in their L5. The under in Cubs L5 is 2-2-1...

Tigers: The Tigers have been realy hot lately with a 5 game win streak and 7-1 in their L8. With the Dodgers it's a whole different story with a 4 game loosing streak and 3-7 their L10. The Tigers have driven in 30 runs in their streak and that equivals 6 runs pr. game while allowing only 13, 2.5 runs pr. game with two 1 run games against CWS and a shutout in game 1 in this series. Also the Tigers are 39-16 in their last 55 interleague games while the Dodgers are 16-37 in their last 53 interleague games.
RedSox: Beckett vs Bailey, Beckett have starting to pick up his old pitching also with a 3.50 ERA in his L3 while Bailey got a 6.30 in his L3. Beckett got a bad outing in his last start agains the O's, but got 3 quality starts before that one. Meanwhile Bailey cant get two quality starts in a row and got a quality start in 1 of his L3 games and gave up 5 runs in his last outing against the Cards. It doesn't looks like the road affect Becket as he got a 3.77 ERA in 45.1 IP, meanwhile Bailey at home got a 12.27 ERA but he have pitched only 3.2 innings at home... The Reds have been awfull against righties in their L10 with a .182 batting avg and only 3.17 R/9. The Sox have been ok against righties in their L10 with a .274 batting avg and 5.64 R/9, but I think they can build on their win from yesterday where they won with a 10th inning back-to-back HR's by Youkilis and Crisp. This one also covers my Sox TT O5...

Twins: Baker vs McClung, I just love the pitching matchup in this one. Baker with a 1.80 ERA in his L3, while McClung got a 4.86 ERA in his L3. It's almost the same story in day games where Baker got a 2.25 ERA while McClung got a 4.91 ERA. In their L10 games the Twins have been great against righties batting .307 with 6.34 R/9. The Brewers have been good in their L10 also hitting .265 with 5.57 R/9, but the Twins are far ahead right now. In the Twins L5 their gotten 7.27 R/9 of righties. The Twins are 11-4 in the last 15 meetings and 31-11 in their last 42 interleague games. The Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague games. The Twins are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee...

[Wilforth]

Clueless,
The results of recent have been silly. There's no criterion out there that's useful in predicting the outcome of any game these days. Today, I went for the Brewers and Dbacks. On paper, the Brewers are a bad choice, but the more unwise a pick, the better!
Out of annoyance, more than anything else, I made a very small play on the following 9-team parlay ($5.10 to win $4,950):
Marlins +140
Padres +140
Reds +145
Nationals +115
Rockies +135
Rockies/White Sox under 8.5 (+100)
Jays -115
Cubs/Jays under 8.5 (-105)
Dodgers/Tigers over 9.5 (-105)

GL to you. If the Brewers lose, at least I know someone else will smile.

[Clueless_Norway]

GL, but the Padres are struggling now Down 3-0 after a hr in 3rd..

[Clueless_Norway]

Today, 5-4

# RedSox TT RUNS o5 win +1.8
# Marlins TT RUNS o4½win +2.1
# Padres/Jays U8.5 loss -3
# Tigers/RedSox -1.5 win +7.68
# Rays TT RUNS u5 win +1.66
# Pirates TT RUNS win +1.81
# Twins loss -4.0
# Nationals TOT RUNS u4 loss -1.0
# Mariners TOT RUNS o4½ loss -1.7



Today
Totals: 4-2
Parlay: 1-1
Sides: 0-1
Units: +5.35
Record
Sides: 1-6
Parlay: 1-4
Totals: 6-4
Units: -20.65

[Clueless_Norway]

Adding:
# Nationals TOT RUNS u4 (-125)Diamond 1 unit
# Mariners TOT RUNS o4½ (-110)Diamond 1.7 units

[Clueless_Norway]

Monday 16/6

Got my first pluss day yesterday with 5-4, +5.35 units.
I'll try to get a streak going and also feeling a bit lucky today, so im putting up big cards today:

# Phillies 2½ RUNS -2½ (+205)Diamond 2 units
# Phillies TOT RUNS o5 (-110)Diamond 2 units
# Angels TOT RUNS u4½ (-115)Diamond 2 units
# Marlins TOT RUNS o4½ (-120)Diamond 2 units

PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
Rockies
Marlins -1½
* 2 units (+355 )Diamond

PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
# Phillies O9
# SF Giants
# NY Mets
* 2 units (+748)Bet365

PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
# Phillies -2.0
# Marlins
* 2 units (+372)Bet365

GL fellow cappers... Think I might need it BIG!!

[Wilforth]

Got my first pluss day yesterday with 5-4, +5.35 units.
I'll try to get a streak going and also feeling a bit lucky today, so im putting up big cards today:

# Phillies 2½ RUNS -2½ (+205)Diamond 2 units
# Phillies TOT RUNS o5 (-110)Diamond 2 units
# Angels TOT RUNS u4½ (-115)Diamond 2 units
# Marlins TOT RUNS o4½ (-120)Diamond 2 units

PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
Rockies
Marlins -1½
* 2 units (+355 )Diamond

PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
# Phillies O9
# SF Giants
# NY Mets
* 2 units (+748)Bet365

PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
# Phillies -2.0
# Marlins
* 2 units (+372)Bet365

GL fellow cappers... Think I might need it BIG!!

I like your 3-team parlay but I fear that the Phillies game may cynically stay UNDER 9. Just a thought.

[Clueless_Norway]

Yeah.. Usualy I think 9 is to hig for a over, but the Phillies can put up a good amount of runs (never know when tho..) and the Sox are on fire right now... I predict a 7-4 Phillies win + a total of 4 HR's, two each..

[Wilforth]

But you always know that when your bets are based on sound statistical analysis, then you're sure to lose about 40% of them!
So it's advisable to sometimes just take a silly chance on some outcomes. Otherwise, the OVER would be an obvious play in the Red Sox/Phillies game.
My strongest plays today are Rockies and Giants. My reason for picking them is that they don't seem to be the best bets of the day, plus I have no formidable reason for picking them. I'm learning to run away from things that look too obvious!!!

[Clueless_Norway]

I like the Rockies today ass I can see they continue their climbing to the top of their division. Almost everything goes their way now after a hart start on the season, so I think the Rockies team moral is at the highest point right now.
I love the Giants today. The Tigers got a 6 game win streak, but I can't see the Tigers got a much longer streak and Lincecum is at the mound. Right now Lincecum is the pitcher in all mlb that im most confident in... Also I don't like Verlander today... The only times I can pick him is at home or against D'Backs, Royals, Mariners or Nationals...

[Wilforth]

You were right with your OVER in the Phillies game.

[Clueless_Norway]

Yeah I know... It might be with just the 1 run tho...

[Wilforth]

My Rockies pick is turning out to be a disaster. I just made the following plays now:
Mets
Mets/Angels UNDER 8.5
Marlins

[Wilforth]

Clueless,
For Tuesday, I'm considering:
Twins
Orioles

What's your take on these?

[Clueless_Norway]

Havn't looked into tomorrows games yet... give me 10 min

[Clueless_Norway]

After a quick lookin I agree with the Orioles pick but I gonna stay away from the Twins. The Nats comes from a sweep (against the M's, but anyway..) and Hernandez got a awfull 13.15 ERA in his L3 while Lannan got a decent 3.00 ERA in his L3. Hernandez have been awfull in his L5 not given up under 5 runs and he has given up 7 runs two time in a row in his L2 starts (@CWS and @CLE). Lannan have given up under 3 runs in 4 of his L5 and have given up only 2 runs in his L3. Also the Twins have been awfull vs lefties in their L10 with a .245 batting avg and only 2.20 R/9.
The Nats have been fairly good against righties in their L10 with a .270 batting avg and 4.46 R/9.

Backe have been awfull in his L3 starts with a 8.40 ERA where he has given up 5, 4 and 5 runs... Olson got a bad start against the Sox, but before that he has hold the opponent to 2 runs twice and got a shutout against the Yanks. Also Olson got a good home ERA at 2.66 and a 3-0 record. The batting also goes in Orioles favour in their L10 games.

In those two game I like the O's (-130) and might be on the Nats (+111) as a little dog as they got a realy good shoot tomorrow.

[ryanXL977]

nice call on p[hils-2.5 BIG MAN!!!

[Clueless_Norway]

nice call on p[hils-2.5 BIG MAN!!!

Thanks I got a good feeling today so I just took a shot at it

[ryanXL977]

ive never done one of those

[Clueless_Norway]

ive never done one of those

Hernandez have been realy awfull now while Lannan have been great. Also the Twins can't hit lefties now and havn't all year as they are the 7th worst team against lefties in mlb..