Ray's 2011 MLB Picks Pt. 2

[Raynor21]

After getting wrecked in the first half of the season to the point that I just decided to take a break for a while, I'm back with a new strategy. So far, it's doing decent and at the risk of jinxing myself, I've decided to post the plays here to track them.

All plays are to win a unit.

Today, they all happen to be totals and lines are from 5dimes.

6/27 Plays

Cle/Ari Under 9 @ -117: Risk 1.17 to win 1

Atl/Sea Under 6 @ +102: Risk 1 to win 1.02

Cin/TB Under 7.5 @ +108: Risk 1 to win 1.08

[BiffTFinancial]

i like all three of those. couldn't quite pull the trigger on CIN/TB because of Mike Leake, but love unders at the Trop. BOL with your plays.

[Raynor21]

Thanks

I've been reading "Conquering Risk" especially about MLB modelling in regard to EV and I think it's really helped me pick my plays. I went from betting instinctively to putting more emphasis on probability in association with edge and the given lines. Let's see how it works out.

[Raynor21]

6/27 Plays

Cle/Ari Under 9 @ -117: Risk 1.17 to win 1 PUSH

Atl/Sea Under 6 @ +102: Risk 1 to win 1.02

Cin/TB Under 7.5 @ +108: Risk 1 to win 1.08

2-0-1 (+2.1u)

Not bad for a start. Let's see if we can keep it up

[Raynor21]

2-0-1 (+2.1)

Here are some more unders for you to run with today.

Cle/Ari Under 9.5 @ -120 1.2u to win 1u

Bos/Phil Under 9.5 @ -105 1.05u to win 1u

Tex/Hous Under 8.5 @ -120 1.2u to win 1u

Good luck guys!

[Raynor21]

Im also heavily leaning on sf/chi over 6.5 but i cant get myself to pull the trigger on it...

[Raynor21]

Wrap it up boys! Clean sweep!
3-0-0 (+3u)

Cle/Ari Under 9.5 @ -120 1.2u to win 1u

Bos/Phil Under 9.5 @ -105 1.05u to win 1u

Tex/Hous Under 8.5 @ -120 1.2u to win 1u



Total: 5-0-1 (+6.1u)

[mentorbh]

Good

Wrap it up boys! Clean sweep!
3-0-0 (+3u)

Cle/Ari Under 9.5 @ -120 1.2u to win 1u

Bos/Phil Under 9.5 @ -105 1.05u to win 1u

Tex/Hous Under 8.5 @ -120 1.2u to win 1u



Total: 5-0-1 (+6.1u)

[Raynor21]

Good

Thanks!

Thing is, remember, I'm not picking winners, I'm basing it all on probability, so I'm worried a few losing days are right around the corner. Hopefully, I can keep my head above my projected goal of 56%.

Other than the Philly/Boston game, nothing really looks that good.

Here's my kind of list of what looks profitable tomorrow:

Rockies/White Sox under 9 @ +108

Pirates ML @ +130

Tigers -1.5 @ Even

Brewers/Yankees U 8.5 @ +105

I'm definitely looking at Phil/Bos Under though as a play tomorrow. The others, I'm going to sleep on and look at line movement in the morning.

[Raynor21]

Official play

Phillies -120 Risk 1.2 for 1

[Raynor21]

Lost that one.

5-1-1 (4.9u)

Three plays today!

Bos/Hou Under 9 @ -115 1.15 to win 1

STL/TB Under 8.5 @ -110 1.1 to win 1

Bal/ATL Under 7.5 @ -105 1.05 to win 1

BOL boys!