Deke's System Plays

Deke101 · 06-09-08, 10:40 AM

Yesterday's home team Over's would have been 9-4-1 roughly depending on what the lines were. And I'm looking to eliminate those losing picks by finding the premier picks here. For the past week I had only been following the highest favored home team, which went 4-2-1 i believe. And I noticed that other teams that were favored just as high were going over their total as well, but I was not including them. So I'll include teams from -150 on up and I may gradually bump it to -160 or -170 but for starters, we will see how this goes.

First Plays:

4* Yankees Over 5.5 Runs -120

2* White Sox Over 5 -130

Deke101 · 06-09-08, 11:51 AM

I like the two later game picks better than the Yankees and White Sox. The Angels pick should be the play of the day. Tampa Bay is 0-8 at LAA the past 2 seasons, and LAA has been hot as of late. The problem is LAA doesn't score that many runs, but they have been coming around. And the pitching match-up is in favor of LAA big time. Also the Blue Jays at 4.5 is solid because they are facing the worst pitcher on the board tonight.

Deke101 · 06-09-08, 01:59 PM

Not looking good at all for the Yankees right now. They have no runs and they only have 9 outs left. Atleast KC just hit a 2-run homer to take the lead and then the Yankees will either get runs, or get the extra time to score runs. Either way I don't plan on winning this bet.

The White Sox are doing good, they have 1 run and they are getting baserunners - currently bases loaded 1 out with konerko, thome, and dye waiting to get up to bat.

I plan to put a lot on the line for the night plays.

Another take on this is to simply take all the home teams to go over their totals. Pittsburgh would have won today, and the record for that yesterday was 9-4-1. And it would have gone 8-6-1 on Saturday, but I don't want to play ALL the home teams day in and day out, I might as well bet the total home team runs for the night to go over or whatever that bet is. If anyone has any input on how I could tweak this system a little bit I would appreciate it.

tevari · 06-09-08, 03:34 PM

hochevar was impressive today against the yanks, CHW already a winner, like the other picks as well. GL

Deke101 · 06-09-08, 03:43 PM

-2.46 Units for the Early Games

Late Game System Plays:

6* Toronto Over 4.5 -120 (to win 5.00 units)
5* Angels Over 4 -130 (to win 3.85 units)

Deke101 · 06-09-08, 10:45 PM

Today's System Track Record:

1-2-1 (-8.46 units)

Lost my two big plays, won my smallest one, and pushed my other one = stupid.

Still going to continue to do this, but I may do all the plays the same amount.

Deke101 · 06-10-08, 01:42 PM

Tuesday June 10th Plays:

System Record 1-2-1 (-8.46 units)

Three plays qualify. Red Sox Over 5 -110, Toronto Over 4.5 -130, Cubs Over 5 -105.

I'm only playing one of these today, and thats:

5* Toronto Over 4.5 -130 (to win 3.85)

They are up against Carlos Silva, who has been getting absolutely stomped lately and has a 6.25 career ERA against Toronto. Toronto should come around today after they left 25 guys on base in yesterday's 2-3 loss against Seattle.

I don't like the Red Sox Over 5 or the Cubs over 5. Cabrera has pitched good against Boston this year, and the Under 9 is being favored at this time. The Cubs will be up against Glavine, who has been pretty solid lately. I'm not sure what the total in the Cubs game is either. At the same time, what good is this system if I'm just going to pick through the plays, but if all plays are supposed to be winners, then I look for the play I like the most I guess...

Deke101 · 06-10-08, 08:18 PM

I'm an idiot..

Would have went 2-1 with tonights Overs with 1 unit bets being (+.74 units) on the night. (This is also assuming the Cubs will score 2 more runs as they are up 4-3 in the 4th).

Sure enough I take the losing play of the 3. Time to play each and every one from now on for 1 unit. I still see hope in this system.

Deke101 · 06-11-08, 10:49 AM

Dumb night last night, and today I'll probably get bit in the ass again.

3-3-1 Record in the last two days, which is when I began grading plays that qualify for the entire system.

But the plays are:

1* Red Sox Over 5 -110

--I think both teams will still score runs despite having better pitchers on the mound. The pitchers in last night's game (Cabrera vs. Beckett) are better than tonights pitchers (Olsen vs. Colon). Olsen just faced Boston 2 starts ago in Baltimore, and he went 5 innings and allowed 2 earned runs and had 5 K's. But according to his numbers it appears that he isn't as good on the road. He also hasn't faced that high of calibur teams on the road, other than the Yankees, who got on him fast when Olsen allowed 6 earned runs in just 2.2 IP as the Yankees went on to win 8-0. Olsen's following start was then against the Yankees, who were shut out in 7.0 IP by Olsen. I think that Olsen is young and not ready to be going into Boston, the best home field in baseball where Boston is ready for him (because they've seen him before, and they can't be happy about their 10-6 loss last night). He is also 0-2 in four starts against Boston in his career, with a 6.64 ERA in 20.1 total IP. Boston can't be too happy about last night's 10-6 loss, and the Red Sox hit .297 at home, and .295 vs. lefties. Olsen is in for it tonight.

1* Cubs Over 5 -110

--We are in the same position as last night, with the same two teams and same two totals. The Cubs are up against Jurrjens, a 22 year old Right hander who has had some success so far this season. Jurrjens has a 4.84 road ERA, and his last 3 starts have been pretty bad and I think it is equal to an 8.34 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Cubs are great at home(27-8), and the Braves are terrible on the road(7-22). Cubs scored 10 runs in last nights game, which puts them at 38 runs in their last 5 home games.

Deke101 · 06-11-08, 03:59 PM

With Jurrjens out and Bennett in, I like the Cubs play even more. Bennett is a reliever and is used to only going 3 or less innings. The game may get some rain too.

Deke101 · 06-11-08, 10:20 PM

2-0 on the day with the Cubs and Red Sox both going over 5.

System Track at 5-3-1 since starting grading on the 9th.

Deke101 · 06-11-08, 10:33 PM

I also have to work tomorrow morning from 8-1 central time so I won't be around to post any plays. But it actually is looking like no plays are going to qualify.

Deke101 · 06-12-08, 01:45 PM

There are no plays that meet all criteria for the system.

Red Sox against a pitcher with a 3.40 ERA WIN

Cleveland is below .500 WIN

Mets game total was 7 PUSH

--I'm not saying don't take these teams over, I'm saying they do not qualify for the system, therefore I do not have a play.

My plays on the side:
1* Giants/Rockies Under 9 -120 LOSS
1* Giants +104 WIN
.5* Braves/Cubs Under 9.5 -105 WIN
.5* Marlins +113 LOSS
.5* St. Louis +126 LOSS
.5* Parlay Cubs/Red Sox +175 WIN
1* Austria +180 (Euro) LOSS

Adding:
3.5* Red Sox -152 WIN
----Red Sox are 12-0 this season as a home favorite of -150 to -175.
1.5* Cardinals FF LOSS
.75* Parlay Cardinals +1.5/Indians -1.5 +230 LOSS
.75* Cardinals ML/Indians ML +270 LOSS
1.25* A's EVEN LOSS
.5* A's/Yankees Under 8.5 -115 WIN
.5* Phillies/Marlins Over 10 EVEN LOSS
1.25* Red Sox -152 WIN

Deke101 · 06-13-08, 01:39 PM

Could have had a winning night if my criteria was a little less strict going 2-0-1 in last night's 'close to qualifying' plays. I changed my criteria slightly to get more games involved in the system. The changes are noted in my first post in bold.

Today's Only System Play (5-3-1):

3* White Sox Over 4.5 -130

Alternate Plays of Mine:

2* Rangers/Mets Over 9.5 -105
2* Brewers Over 4.5 -120
2* Yankees Over 4.5 -140

Good Luck today everyone. I have a very good feeling about today's Interleague plays.

Any suggestions are welcome.

ryanXL977 · 06-13-08, 02:10 PM

dodgers are my play of the day

Wilforth · 06-13-08, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by Deke101

Could have had a winning night if my criteria was a little less strict going 2-0-1 in last night's 'close to qualifying' plays. I changed my criteria slightly to get more games involved in the system. The changes are noted in my first post in bold.

Today's Only System Play (5-3-1):

3* White Sox Over 4.5 -130

Alternate Plays of Mine:

2* Rangers/Mets Over 9.5 -105
2* Brewers Over 4.5 -120
2* Yankees Over 4.5 -140

Good Luck today everyone. I have a very good feeling about today's Interleague plays.

Any suggestions are welcome.

Deke, what's your reason for Rangers/Mets over 9.5?

Deke101 · 06-13-08, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Deke, what's your reason for Rangers/Mets over 9.5?

Both pitchers have appeared in games where double digit runs were scored. Both have poor ERA's. Texas's offense is good lately averaging 6.4 runs per game in their last 7. Mets last 10 games are 6-3-1 Over (The 3 unders were all 1-2 losses versus San Diego). Rangers last 10 games are 8-2 Over.

Deke101 · 06-14-08, 10:29 AM

System goes 1-0. I went 1-3...

System record (6-3-1)

Big Card today for the system. I'm assuming all of these plays qualify. Either way these are my plays today and I have a wedding to go to today so I won't be back til tomorrow afternoon. Today the sample size will nearly double. Decision Day:

White Sox Over 5 -125 (my favorite)
Milwaukee Over 5 -105
Indians Over 4.5 -125
Mets Over 5 -105
Diamondbacks Over 4.5 -115
Toronto Over 4.5 EVEN
Tampa Bay Over 5 -105

All for 1 unit. Good Luck everyone.