Thanks guys...hopefully I can keep it rolling after the break.
As promised, I am posting my picks for today's Home Run Derby. I will not be adding these plays to my records, they are simply some action. I am betting on these, however, so I am fairly confident in them. I am posting my pick to win it and a value pick of a bigger dog who I think has a shot to win it. These odds are the ones I am getting from 5dimes so they may differ slightly. I'll provide some reasoning for the picks as well. Here they are:
My Winner: David Ortiz +435
My Value Pick: Matt Kemp +780
Here's the deal with it:
-Rickie Weeks has no shot and wouldn't even be there if Prince wasn't the captain of the squad.
-Cano may at first seem like a good value at around +950. He plays in Yankee Stadium, the most HR friendly park in the majors. He has only hit 4 of his 15 HRs this season outside of Yankee Stadium this season.
-I had Matt Holliday last year and he shit the bed. In '07, he finished 3rd. Dude is a beast, but I don't think his swing style translates well to the HR derby style.
-A-Gon booked a total of 2 dingers in his only appearance in the derby in 2009. Ortiz said that Gonzo was the first person to come to his mind when he was named captain because of how beastly he is in BP. He doesn't have the swagger to win it, as stupid as that sounds. I don't see it.
-Bautista could definitely win this thing. He is unreal and he's been on a tear for the whole season. Dude has 5 HRs in his last 8 games. He's hot as hell. I couldn't bring myself to bet him because he is +300...there is absolutely no value whatsoever in that.
-I think Prince could win it as well. He and Ortiz have won the last two derbys. Their swing styles are the best for this type of competition. They both have loose, adaptable swings and a ton of brute strength. It could very easily be Prince and Ortiz in the final. The reason I didn't take Prince is because I felt good about him and Ortiz but I took Kemp as my value play so I didn't want to bet two NL players.
Now for the reasons on my plays:
David Ortiz +435-Ortiz won it last year and I think he's got a good shot this year to be the first back to back winner since Griffey in '98-'99. Ortiz's style is perfect for the derby. He has a loose swing and tons of strength. I feel like he can smack dingers anywhere on Earth. There was a little more value in Prince but I didn't wanna have two NL players as I said.
Matt Kemp +780-Matt Kemp has been absolutely unreal this year so far. He plays often in Chase Field and will be very comfortable tonight. In comparison with the other "Value plays"-Weeks, Cano, Gonzo, and Holliday (kinda a value play), I think Kemp has the best shot out of them by far to win this thing. Kemp has some serious confidence and swagger. I feel like he has a good shot tonight and is worth the value play at +780.
With whoever you take tonight, GL. I'm looking forward to a Matt Kemp/David Ortiz final.
As promised, I am posting my picks for today's Home Run Derby. I will not be adding these plays to my records, they are simply some action. I am betting on these, however, so I am fairly confident in them. I am posting my pick to win it and a value pick of a bigger dog who I think has a shot to win it. These odds are the ones I am getting from 5dimes so they may differ slightly. I'll provide some reasoning for the picks as well. Here they are:
My Winner: David Ortiz +435
My Value Pick: Matt Kemp +780
Here's the deal with it:
-Rickie Weeks has no shot and wouldn't even be there if Prince wasn't the captain of the squad.
-Cano may at first seem like a good value at around +950. He plays in Yankee Stadium, the most HR friendly park in the majors. He has only hit 4 of his 15 HRs this season outside of Yankee Stadium this season.
-I had Matt Holliday last year and he shit the bed. In '07, he finished 3rd. Dude is a beast, but I don't think his swing style translates well to the HR derby style.
-A-Gon booked a total of 2 dingers in his only appearance in the derby in 2009. Ortiz said that Gonzo was the first person to come to his mind when he was named captain because of how beastly he is in BP. He doesn't have the swagger to win it, as stupid as that sounds. I don't see it.
-Bautista could definitely win this thing. He is unreal and he's been on a tear for the whole season. Dude has 5 HRs in his last 8 games. He's hot as hell. I couldn't bring myself to bet him because he is +300...there is absolutely no value whatsoever in that.
-I think Prince could win it as well. He and Ortiz have won the last two derbys. Their swing styles are the best for this type of competition. They both have loose, adaptable swings and a ton of brute strength. It could very easily be Prince and Ortiz in the final. The reason I didn't take Prince is because I felt good about him and Ortiz but I took Kemp as my value play so I didn't want to bet two NL players.
Now for the reasons on my plays:
David Ortiz +435-Ortiz won it last year and I think he's got a good shot this year to be the first back to back winner since Griffey in '98-'99. Ortiz's style is perfect for the derby. He has a loose swing and tons of strength. I feel like he can smack dingers anywhere on Earth. There was a little more value in Prince but I didn't wanna have two NL players as I said.
Matt Kemp +780-Matt Kemp has been absolutely unreal this year so far. He plays often in Chase Field and will be very comfortable tonight. In comparison with the other "Value plays"-Weeks, Cano, Gonzo, and Holliday (kinda a value play), I think Kemp has the best shot out of them by far to win this thing. Kemp has some serious confidence and swagger. I feel like he has a good shot tonight and is worth the value play at +780.
With whoever you take tonight, GL. I'm looking forward to a Matt Kemp/David Ortiz final.
