Phillies continue to lose, don't know why they can't hit right now but they can't... The strand an average of 10 base runners a game for the last 7 games... When a team just isn't coming through its very hard for them to snap out of it... and getting 1.6 times your money to go against them is to good to be true.
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never good in a gambling world.Originally posted by GemSportsPicks
vegas partying with Dodger's money tonight.Comment -
Thanks Gem, let's hope it's a winner. Good Luck!!!Comment -
Hahaha usually I would agree with you... But in this case people continue to chase the Phillies, no doubt in my mind that there will be much more action on the side of the Phillies then the Dodgers... So if dodger do lose, Vegas gets crushed as well. Well not crushed casuse one game doesn't matter to them, unless that one game is the Superbowl.Originally posted by SamWiseComment -
From what I see I dont see them winning tonight at all.Originally posted by GemSportsPicks
I dont know by how many points, dont know by how big/small, but i just dont see them winning purely by opening odds/line movement.
Dodgers sitting at +170 right now.
Here is an example.
to make this example easy, lets just say that dodgers are at +200 and phillies at -200
There are 100 dollars to be given out from vegas.
In order for vegas to even out, pubs have to be 33% on dodgers and 66% on phillies.
with dodgers at +170, i would say it should be close to 39%.
They are sitting at 47% right now. And most likely LAD's bet will only go down to about 43%.
Dont see them winning.
If they win, big props to you
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I know all about the math... We will just have to wait and see what happens... Also remember the perctenage aren't quite as simple as you made them. Thats why the gap is there... +170 and -190.... So in even split here 50 50... So 100 on Dodgers and 100 on Phills... In this case a phills win Vegas or bookie makes nothing... Phils loss they make 20... So now lets make some adjustments... Lets say its 60 40... So based on our 200 total that they took in... So thats 120 on phills and 80 on Dodgers. Phills win Books lose 40 dollars... Dodgers win and books make books make 92 dollars. So we see the interest Vegas has in the dog in 50 50 prop or 60 40 in favor of phils... Vegas almost always benefits by the dog winning...Originally posted by SamWiseFrom what I see I dont see them winning tonight at all.
I dont know by how many points, dont know by how big/small, but i just dont see them winning purely by opening odds/line movement.
Dodgers sitting at +170 right now.
Here is an example.
to make this example easy, lets just say that dodgers are at +200 and phillies at -200
There are 100 dollars to be given out from vegas.
In order for vegas to even out, pubs have to be 33% on dodgers and 66% on phillies.
with dodgers at +170, i would say it should be close to 39%.
They are sitting at 47% right now. And most likely LAD's bet will only go down to about 43%.
Dont see them winning.
If they win, big props to you
So what percentage does Vegas need to be on dodgers to benefit from dodgers loss... Lets try 60 40 again... 120 on dodgers 80 on Phils. In this case Dodgers wins books lose 15... Then if phils win books make 40...
This is overly simplified, but basically I'm just trying to say books rarely clean up when dogs lose... They absolutely crush when favorites lose.Comment -
I agree with you.
Books make money when the big fav lose.
lets just give it a go on this game.
i am not betting this game anyway since phillies are a chalk monster.
and I dont have the confidence to go for -1.5.
You can bet, and i will cheer for you. But I dont see them winning tonight.
good luck. great talk btw.Comment -
good call GemComment -
True as I said for now I'm small on all my baseball right now... Just 100 a game for fun... Testing every possible angle and combination of angles hopefully I stumble into the right combination that can hit around 60% for 100 plays... Then you will see me reduce my number of plays drastically and start throwing real money around.Originally posted by SamWiseComment -
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I'm wih you on the dodgers, its a good dog play.
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