go for your feeling or stats?

[DIF]

whats best for MLB?? when choose totals.

I checked the stats between-millwauke and arizona. stats told UNDER market say UNDER. I bet the UNDER but against my feelings and off course it was a losing bets. 10-1 millwauke early on .

millwauke was 3.90 scores 3.15 allowing scores at home last 20. but here they scored 10 early. they also got 14-5 under last 20 at home

arizona was 3.80 scores vs allowing 4.05 last 20

the line started at over 9 but go down to 8.5 and also bet UNDER 8.5.

pitcher was parra vs owings. parras TEAM allowing 4.16 runs/game for 6 homegames and he was 3-3 vs UNDER.

owings TEAM was allowing 4.10 runs average in last 19 away games and was 10-8 over and 1 push.



perhaps I should have go with owings bad stats vs UNDER instead of millwaukes bad stats vs over????????

my feeling tolds OVER 8.5 the line was very low with not that good pitchers, but I was so afraid of millwaukes many unders at home.

perhaps I need to cover with more stats?? for exampe form last 5? or last 3?


I appreciate all help here.

[DIF]

arizona was 3.80 scores vs allowing 4.05 last 20. thats their away-stats.

[DIF]

I have a couple of thoughts myself.

for example always take the OVER if previous starts(in the series) scores is for example 12-10 in the first game and 13-7 in the 2.d game. Then take the OVER for game 3. no matter who pitches game 3.

the same thing if its low scoring in first 2 games, for example 3-1 and 4-1. take the UNDER for game 3.

no matter who pitches game 3.

am I wrong here? I appreciate all help.

[69882000]

Gut feelings will lead you astray 9/10. Stick with stats and hard work. That will get get you what you want. 5.7/10. Not much but It will make you a profit 10/10.

[DIF]

thanks for answer me
69882000
I try work hard . in fact I go to bed with all stats, and dream stats too LOL.

[DIF]

okey here is more of my thinking about a big problem.

example. BECKETT. everyone know he is a GREAT pitcher but when I look at his stats it tells bet OVER. specially when Boston plays at home.

he usually got good run support but give away a few runs himself too. BUT everyone know he is one of the best so it make it difficult bet the OVER on his games.

so my feeling says. he is one of the best, bet UNDER

but the stats says. he always got good run support . bet OVER.

here is his homestats last 20 games.

05/18/2008BOS11MIL77619W9½O-240C Villanueva05/03/2008BOS12TB48415W8O-150J Shields04/12/2008BOS4NYY36⅔315W9½U-160M Mussina10/24/2007BOS13COL17119W8½O-220J Francis10/12/2007BOS10CLE36207W8O-150C Sabathia10/03/2007BOS4LAA09008W8½U-170J Lackey09/27/2007BOS4MIN56506L9½U-250B Bonser09/15/2007BOS10NYY17127W9½O100C Wang 09/04/2007BOS5TOR38327W8½U-145R Halladay08/17/2007BOS5LAA77118L9½O-220E Santana07/31/2007BOS3BAL58526L8½U-150E Bedard07/20/2007BOS10CHW363210W9O-220J Contreras07/15/2007BOS1TOR28228L9½U-230J Litsch07/05/2007BOS15TB46319W10O-265J.P. Howell06/30/2007BOS4TEX55504L10U-265R Tejeda06/14/2007BOS1COL75611L8½U-230J Francis06/03/2007BOS5NYY66⅓435L9½O-155A Pettitte05/29/2007BOS4CLE27217W10½U-200J Sowers05/13/2007BOS6BAL54227W9½O-280J Guthrie05/02/2007BOS6OAK47327W9O-190C Gaudin


SO. shall I take the over in his homegames? but I know he always pitches good when I take the over!!!!


appreciate A LOT all replies and hope you understand what I mean.

[DIF]

here is BECKETT homestats. http://www.ats411.com/MLB/Results/resPitcher.aspx

[DIF]

check in the database

[accuscoresucks]

always take a pitcher with a 4.25 or lower,never over a 1.3 whip also


never bet against a pitcher unless he has over a 5.00 era,and over a 1.55 whip

[chipski]

crank up your stereo with some boston , more than a feeling .
then just click all the 1st place teams on single wagers for the same amount on each . if the odds are too high just give up the 1.5 .

next look at all the teams that lost the day before and go ahead and click them in to lose again for that day . if the odds are too high then just give up the 1.5 .
if you do this every day throughout the whole season you would do okay .
which doing okay is a helluva alot better than losing your $$ .

is just one quick way , not complicted , we can complicate it ourselves . i know you wont do this , much less every day . but for anyone with huge bank , they can do this and come out on top as opposed to on the downside overall .

[accuscoresucks]

always take a pitcher with a 4.25 or lower,never over a 1.3 whip also


never bet against a pitcher unless he has over a 5.00 era,and over a 1.55 whip

+
i.e 4.25 era pitcher/1,3 whip pitcher must have atleast 10% more inning pitched



i suppose case in point even the worst mlb team wins 42% of the time,which is a direct result of pitching 80% of the time the only thing left to do is find that 42% 55/100 of your investments being placed

[accuscoresucks]

killing the total in mlb

both pitchers must have over 5.00 era
total whip combined must be over 3 with no single era pitcher under 1.33 whip
both pitchers must have atleast 15 innings under their belt
that is a great formula for over i never bet UNDERS in baseball

[the_orangekat]

I go 60% gut feeling, 40% stats but that's just me, everyone's different.

[chipski]

take a look for thurs

crank up your stereo with some boston , more than a feeling .
then just click all the 1st place teams on single wagers for the same amount on each . if the odds are too high just give up the 1.5 .

next look at all the teams that lost the day before and go ahead and click them in to lose again for that day . if the odds are too high then just give up the 1.5 .
if you do this every day throughout the whole season you would do okay .

may start a thread and track this the whole season .

a look at what it would look like on thursday , a little late but is a long season ...

first place teams on singles :
rsox > $$
wsox > $$
phils -1.5 > $$
cubs > $$

teams that lost the day before to lose again the next day on single wagers :
phils -1.5 > $$
marlins > no good but was good plus odds
pirates > $$
yanks > $$ , but no good giving up 1.5
twins > no good
indians > no good
wsox > $$

is too easy to do well if you play this out every day of the season for the same amount on each every night .
person has to be very disciplined to make all the plays not just the ones that look good on paper or gut or whatever else ... will track these results for thurs .

[chipski]

removing the guesswork with yet another strategy / 2 to be exact

may start a thread and track this the whole season .

a look at what it would look like on thursday , a little late but is a long season ...

first place teams on singles :
rsox > $$
wsox > $$
phils -1.5 > $$
cubs > $$
results are 4 - 0 for this category !

teams that lost the day before to lose again the next day on single wagers :
phils -1.5 > $$
marlins > no good but was good plus odds
pirates > $$
yanks > $$ , but no good giving up 1.5
twins > no good
indians > no good
wsox > $$
yanks game makes or breaks this category , swing game , if you gave up 1.5 or not ... still results not too bad .

is too easy to do well if you play this out every day of the season for the same amount on each every night .
person has to be very disciplined to make all the plays not just the ones that look good on paper or gut or whatever else ... will track these results for thurs .

results not too bad on thurs night using this strategy .

[buztah]

Might I suggest True Lion Sports University's 24-week Kappin' Kamp? You will learn how to properly balance hard core stats with the intangibles in your efforts to make money in bases. Classes begin soon so visit truelionsports.com today and sign up. Tuition is a true value at only 30k for the course.

[chipski]

Might I suggest True Lion Sports University's 24-week Kappin' Kamp? You will learn how to properly balance hard core stats with the intangibles in your efforts to make money in bases. Classes begin soon so visit truelionsports.com today and sign up. Tuition is a true value at only 30k for the course.

you dont see the 4 - 0 above ? you miss that ?
4 - 0 brainstorm . brain , brain , dig it son !

[chipski]

peep it

first place teams on singles :
rsox > $$
wsox > $$
phils -1.5 > $$
cubs > $$

which part did you miss ? in all seriousness .. lmfao