Lets lot have a day like that again 1-4 day gotta look a little better todayi have one in mind.. We will be going small tho against this hot team.... Will update units later
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Ill be playing with fire in tonightsgame...got my plays but will post at 1230 when I am able to bold them(ill be on a computer then)Comment -
By the way updated record is 34-14-1 +63.6units still not badComment -
Id be lying if I said I wasnt nervous about tonights plays I dont like messing with hot teams but I gotta go with what I think.. U guys b careful if u tai, I am up enough units to afford a small hit... Plays posted at 1230 like I saidComment -
Thats a very impressive record. Keep it going, looking forward to see your play.Comment -
i look forward to the play.gl.Comment -
There is going to b a total of 7 plays with 24x at stake..one of the plays being a 7x... All plays basically correspond with one another...man I really need to be right today..2 things scare me dbags have been hot, and its suppose to be in the mid 90'sComment -
I am going to be honest... I am personally going to b a little more agressive than I should be tonight wen it comes to unit size on the plays... For 2 reasons im pissed.. And vegas cant beat me 2 nites in a row.. Play what u can afford if u tailComment -
at first thought I thought ARZ with their ace on the mound is the play, sanchez struggled playing at chase going 0-1 in two starts over the last three seasons while allowing 10 runs and 17 hits over 10 1-3 innings. On the other hand Kennedy won his only start against Florida last July allowing two runs and five hits over 5 1-3 innings. So why is the line the same as it was with shytbag saunders pitching.?? Vegas I think is expecting both pitchers to pitch well and so am I! Hope fullyComment -
marlins Under 4 runs 7.7 to win 7 (7x -110)
Dbags under 4.5 6 to win 5 (5x -120)
Game Under 8.5 5.5 to win 5 (5x-110)
1st 5 under 4.5 3.3 to win 3 (3x -110)
no score 1st inning 3.45 to win 3 (3x -115)
anibal sanchez over 6 k's 3.45 to win 3 (3x -115)
H+r+e UNDER 27 3.3 to win 3 (3x -110)
32.70 x to win 29x
only one not out is the H+r+e line I took a guess will change to the correct # when I actually place my bet on that one.. I got alot riding on the under!Comment -
here is a chart I compiled incase u ever wanna guess 1st column is the game total the 2nd is the estimated H+r+e total information based on sample size of 2600 games
7------------ 25
7.5--------- 25
8------------ 26
8.5--------- 28
9------------ 29
9.5--------- 30
10---------- 31
10.5-------- 32
11----------- 33
11.5-------- 33
12---------- 33
12.5-------- 34
13---------- 35
13.5-------- 36
14---------- 37
14.5-------- 38
15---------- 40
15.5-------- 42Comment -
Hey roch, I am quite surprised that you pulled the trigger on the under.
What do you think about the sides?
From my system and stats, I have VERY VERY strong lean on Arizona like I had a very strong lean on Texas Rangers.
Let me know since you are marlins specialist.Comment -
like i said a couple post above... I initially liked the Dbags.. But the line is fishy.. kinda forcing u to play um.. Sanchez has struggled at chase, kennedy did very well against marlins in his only start, Dbags are Hot, yet the line is basically the same as last night with the ace of the dbags on the mound, Also with the total put out so low, esp after 19 runs yesterday, in my mind Vegas is trying to tell us Pitchers duel.. That is why i said earlier i was scared LOL.. Because I liked the under last night in this one. Its gonna be hot and humid with hot bats.. definatley not a game i am going to watch on my espn score ticker just gonna bet it and watch the mavsComment -
Good luck on whatever roch. I might pull the trigger on the dbags. Line does seem fishy but i think vegas is trying to not show how Arizona is favored tonight. If Dbags were around -145. Many will just avoid this play and some will take Dbags and eat up the chalk. No one will take Marlins with +135 to +140 with Dbag's Ace on the mound also knowing that their bats are hotter than ever.Comment -
C'mon Titans. You're better than this. There's absolutely no reason to chase in this spot. Just make it a normal 1-3 unit play and accept the results. Even if you win, it's not a smart play. Best play here is ARI ML. Sanchez is gonna get pounded. Why even mess with one of the hottest teams in baseball on a (like you noted) 90+ degree night in ARI?Comment -
GL on the under, but just let me say I don't really like the play.
Although Sanchez has pitched great 2 wins against Washington and a win against SF hardly means anything as neither team is in the top 20 in hitting this year. If you look at his starts against STL a good hitting team he gave up 6 hits and 4 runs and was pulled in the 4th inning.
Now go back to his April starts and it's the same type of misleading stats. He gave up 13 hits and 6 runs against Hou in 4, 4 hits and 3 runs against LAD in 5.
Now look at Kennedy in May he shut down Col twice and SF, but neither team was really hitting the ball. Then he gives up 6 hits and 4 runs to Minny?
Compare him against STL as we did Sanchez and again he got rocked. 7 hits and 9 runs over 3 innings.
AZ is hitting .282 in the last 7 days with 54 runs and FL is hitting a decent .269 although they only have 25 runs.
Both pitchers have a WHIP over 1 on the year.
However the stat I don't like the most is the pens ERA. FLA's pen is at 4.70 in the last 3 games and ARI is at 6.04. Add in the fact that FL used 6 pitchers and AZ used 4 makes the pens for both teams pretty suspect.
Although FL only scored 4 they could have easily put another 4 on the board as they went 1-11 with RISP and left 9 on base. A couple of key hits here and there and they get a lot more than 4 on the board.
You also have to look at the total for this play and ask yourself why is it 8.5 with 2 "Aces" on the mound. I mean don't you think the total should be close to 7 or at worse 7.5??
If I had to make a play I would probably lean toward the over in this one only because I think the starting pitchers give up 2-3 each for a total of 5 and the pens give up another 2-3 each which would put the game at 10.
AZ bats spank FL again 6-4Comment -
Sanchez and kennedy are by no means aces and it would be absurd to ever give them a 7 for a total.. Kennedy is arz ace but comeon does he really deserve the title? Cant always go by the stats u see on paper,, if u could u would always win right? I see a low scoring affair I expect fish bats to stay cold.. And sanchez to confuse the dbags.. Good luck on what u decide to play.. But im in love with this under hence laying so many units on various under plays.. Actually the weather concerns me more than the snakes bats in this oneComment -
If I have a losing day im not touching tomorrows game lolComment -
I would play a bit on today and a bit on tomorrow. I don't see any serious reason to pound an under with the leagues best hitting team at the plate who have scored more than 50 runs in the last 7 days regardless of who's pitching.
Win or loose just seem like a risky play.Comment -
BOL Roch- really like your analysis and Marlins insight. I am making one small play on the fish, leaving totals alone.Comment -
damn you love the under. GLComment -
GL Roch from Buffalo.Comment -
love the under so much it scares me lolComment -
Not sure why you love this one so much RT.
Opened at 8, went to 8.5, over's being juiced now, public's on the under....Comment -
sometimes vegas plays tricks.. I hopethis is it.. where u been buddy?Comment -
Shoot...no run in the 1st is a loser
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stupid anibal hahaComment -
just as long as game stays under 9 were a winnerComment -
Tough break on your big bet.Comment -
come on!!Comment
