What do you look at when you cap games?

[DigBick86]

This year has been terrible for me at baseball (only my third year),i seem to overanylze each game,there are so much stats and info to find on internet so when you are in a bad period you seem to overthink each game and start to doubt yourself as a capper.

What do you look for when you cap baseball games? It would be nice to have a thread were people share their knowledge and what they look for and is the most important when they cap ball games.

The first things i look at is.

-How hot a team is are they producing much runs

-Pitcher matchup

-Then i pick out a few matches that has good value and read the latest news about the teams and search sbr/covers for any good info about the teams.

My english isent the best but i hope that you understand the most of it,if you have any good sites please post them aswell its us against the bookies

[DigBick86]

Noone? I know people here can share it they want to

[Inspirited]

i don't cap games. i don't model either. i do have a system though. i gather past data on just starting pitcher eras. i add past moneylines to this data. i break things down into an arbitary period of time - months. then i compare the two starting pitcher eras and look for subsets that have been profitable over the last three seasons for each particular month. this is, of course, a theoretically invalid way to pick games, but so far it has been far better for me than just picking on my own. when i stop being lazy i'll learn how to do multi-linear regression because I do want to get into modeling. I have the cd from my statistics textbooks right here.

[goblue24]

You should also take into account the current form of each team's bullpen. Are they any good? Is the closer/set up man available for that day's game? Are there specific match ups that favor one team over the other that might come into play in that game (i.e. a reliever owning a specific batter that might be up in the late innings with runners in scoring position).

It sucks when you lose a game due to the ineptitude of the bullpen. Of course you could always just bet the five inning line and take the bullpens out of the equation

[ColdBeerHere]

You should also take into account the current form of each team's bullpen. Are they any good? Is the closer/set up man available for that day's game? Are there specific match ups that favor one team over the other that might come into play in that game (i.e. a reliever owning a specific batter that might be up in the late innings with runners in scoring position).

It sucks when you lose a game due to the ineptitude of the bullpen. Of course you could always just bet the five inning line and take the bullpens out of the equation

Just curious, do you know of any sites that have stats on just bull pen pitching ?

[HoulihansTX]

Lang Fade, and all is well.

[chilidog]

I just look and see if the coin lands on heads or tails. Heads = bet Away Team. Tails = bet Home team. It works out pretty good.

[dvw5bf]

Just curious, do you know of any sites that have stats on just bull pen pitching ?

If you go to cleanuphitter dot com, they have team pitching stats, which has a further breakdown of "Bullpen Only".... very helpful stats.

[gohabsgo]

I'm looking at the best value dogs on the board

[ColdBeerHere]

If you go to cleanuphitter dot com, they have team pitching stats, which has a further breakdown of "Bullpen Only".... very helpful stats.

thanks man

[dvw5bf]

thanks man

No worries, unless you are only betting First Five Innings or starters with strong stamina, the bullpen #'s, performance need to be taken into account. Thats the land of bad beats and crazy luck right there.

[drfunkmaster]

Fade Lang as somebody said.. and then i get the blind monkey who throws darts at pieces of paper on which i have written teams on..Which ever the darts land i pick them. Been doing very very well. The blind monkey picked Miami Heat tonight ML.. and it cashed

[lunchbawks]

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