Adam's 2011 MLB picks

adam3248 · 05-23-11, 06:49 AM

STL Cardinals [K. Lohse] @ SD Padres [D. Mosely]

K. Lohse is on the mound for the Cardinals tonight. He has an impressive 2.17 ERA so far this season and will be facing D. Mosely of the Padres who has really struggled over his last 3 starts posting an ERA of 8.79.

San Diego are undoubtedly one of the worst teams in the league offensively whereas the Cardinals are getting the job done with the bats on the road averaging over 6 runs per game. Additionally, the Padres have only won 8 of their previous 29 night games.

Look for the Cardinals to take the series opener tonight.

Pick: STL cardinals moneyline (-132 odds) WINNER!

Risking 2.64 Units to win 2 Units

Best of luck all!

adam3248 · 05-24-11, 05:48 AM

Current Record: 1-0 +2 Units

zneverloses77 · 05-24-11, 05:51 AM

I suck

I should have taken cardinals...i backed out and did not do it

adam3248 · 05-24-11, 04:50 PM

I have 3 picks for tonight's games and I will post them along with analysis in a few mins.

Best of luck all!

adam3248 · 05-24-11, 05:07 PM

NY Mets [J. Niese] @ CHI Cubs [R. Dempster]

There are two strong systems which support my decision to take the Cubs on the moneyline tonight..

1) Fading poor offensive teams in the NL (<=4.1 runs/game), playing against a team with a strong bullpen (ERA<=3.33), on a good fielding streak (15 consecutive games with <=1 error per game) has resulted in a 67-29 record over the last 96 selections for 70% moneyline winners.

2) Supporting the Cubs with Ryan Dempster on the mound at home with moneyline odds of -100 to -150 has resulted in a 39-18 record over the last 57 selections for 68% winners.

Pick: CHI Cubs moneyline (-120 odds) WINNER!

Risking 2.4 Units to win 2 Units.

adam3248 · 05-24-11, 05:36 PM

FLA Marlins [R. Nolasco] @ SF Giants [M. Cain]

The San Francisco Giants have won 9 consecutive home games and look to extend their streak to double figures tonight as Matt Cain takes to the mound, squaring off against Ricky Nolasco and the Florida Marlins.

Consider that the Giants are 21-6 on the moneyline in Cain's last 27 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 series-opening starts and 8-0 in his last 8 starts following 5 days rest. Cain is also 3-0 (6-1 on the moneyline) in 7 career starts against the Marlins carrying an ERA of 2.98 across these games.

Florida on the other hand have lost 5 of their last 7 games in this series and 28 of their last 41 on the road in this matchup. They are also just 1-7 in their last 8 road games when facing an opponent with a home win percentage of 60% or above.

Both pitchers tonight are pretty solid. Matt Cain is 3-2 with a 3.28 ERA and 1-0 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.015 WHIP at home. Ricky Nolasco is 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA and 2-0 with a 4.50 era on the road. However, the Giants are 7-2 on the moneyline in games that Cain has started this season compared to the Marlins who are 5-4 in games that Nalasco has started.

More importantly, my decision to take the Giants on the moneyline tonight is supported by two strong trends specifically relating to their form behind Matt Cain. These are:

1) The Giants are 13-2 on the moneyline in games where they are a home favourite with odds between -125 to -150 over the last 3 seasons.

2) The Giants are 11-1 on the moneyline in home games following a win this season.

Pick: SF Giants moneyline (-129 odds)

LOSER!

Risking 2.58 Units to win 2 Units.

adam3248 · 05-24-11, 06:05 PM

STL Cardinals [K. McClellan] @ SD Padres [A. Harang]

We cashed with the Cardinals after a 3-1 road victory last night and I will be taking them again tonight as they continue to roll, achieving 3 consecutive wins and taking 7 of their last 8 games.

It is worth noting that last night's result handed San Diego their 4th consecutive loss and 19th loss in their last 26 home games. It also contributed to the Padres' 66th defeat in their last 92 meetings in this series overall.

The Cardinals appear to have the edge on the mound tonight with Kyle McClellan opposing Aaron Harang. McClellan has impressed so far this season after stepping up to pitch in the Cardinals' starting rotation following the injury to starter Adam Wainwright. He's 5-1 (7-1 on the moneyline) with an ERA of 3.48 this year. Harang has struggled lately when facing the Cardinals losing his last 4 starts against them.

The Padres can focus the majority of the blame on the struggling offense to explain their recent poor form. They have scored just 7 runs in their last 7 games overall (going 1-6 in the process) whilst the Cardinals are scoring in bunches on the road so far this season averaging 6 runs per game.

The Padres offense has only managed to hit for a .202 batting average on the season primarily contributing to their current status as the worst home team in the NL posting an 8-19 record so far in 2011. Finally, it is worth noting that the Padres have been outscored 28 runs to 7 during their latest losing streak.

Pick: STL Cardinals moneyline (-119 odds) WINNER!

Risking 2.38 Units to win 2 Units.

adam3248 · 05-24-11, 06:08 PM

Big night for me tonight with 7.36 Units at risk across my 3 picks. Best of luck to everyone with their selections and lets make some profit!

ChaseMoney · 05-24-11, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by adam3248

NY Mets [J. Niese] @ CHI Cubs [R. Dempster]

There are two strong systems which support my decision to take the Cubs on the moneyline tonight..

1) Fading poor offensive teams in the NL (<=4.1 runs/game), playing against a team with a strong bullpen (ERA<=3.33), on a good fielding streak (15 consecutive games with <=1 error per game) has resulted in a 67-29 record over the last 96 selections for 70% moneyline winners.

2) Supporting the Cubs with Ryan Dempster on the mound at home with moneyline odds of -100 to -150 has resulted in a 39-18 record over the last 57 selections for 68% winners.

Pick: CHI Cubs moneyline (-120 odds)

Risking 3 Units to win 2 Units.

Backing the Cubs is impossible in nearly any situation. I like the Mets. BOL.

adam3248 · 05-24-11, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by ChaseMoney

Backing the Cubs is impossible in nearly any situation. I like the Mets. BOL.

I'm not so sure I agree with that statement to be honest but we're all entitled to an opinion. I think if you research enough games in depth regardless of which teams are playing, as long as you pick your spots wisely and exploit value in the markets you can make profit backing any team in a variety of different situations. In comparison with some other teams, I guess I rarely take the Cubs as one of my selections. However, to say it's impossible to back them in almost any situation is a strange statement to make.

adam3248 · 05-24-11, 08:14 PM

Both Dempster and Niese struggled in the 2nd inning throwing 31 and 29 pitches respectively. Dempster escaped without allowing a run and the Cubs capitalized scoring 5

In a strong position to get the 'W' now just gotta play smart ball.

adam3248 · 05-25-11, 02:36 AM

A profitable 2-1 night

The Giants let me down but the Cubs came up big and the Cardinals scraped the 'W' in extra innings.

Last night's breakdown: 2-1 +1.42 Units

Current Record: 3-1 +3.42 Units

adam3248 · 05-25-11, 08:10 AM

STL Cardinals [C. Carpenter] @ SD Padres [M. Latos]

I have cashed in on the Cardinals two night's running now and I will be taking them again tonight as they look to sweep a struggling Padres side.

Victory for St.Louis in extra innings last night was their 4th consecutive and 8th in their previous 9 games. The Cardinals are now 10 games above a .500 record overall and 5 games above a .500 record on the road. They are an impressive 22-8 on the moneyline in their last 30 games against NL West division opponents.

Chris Carpenter will be starting on the mound for the Cardinals tonight. He has suffered through a rare rough patch to start the season but bounced back in his last game against the Royals despite failing to come away with the 'W'. It was his first quality start in his last 4 games so it may prove to be a momentum swinger as he looks to regain his dominance. I expect that facing the worst offense in the Majors in the Padres can only boost his confidence ahead of tonight's game.

The Cardinals are just 2-8 on the moneyline in Carpenter's last 10 starts which is a little worrying. However, this may not be such a negative factor for us as it will only increase the value on this line as we expect Carpenter to build on his strong outing last time out and pick up the win against a struggling San Diego team. Additionally, Carpenter has dominated the Padres in their most recent meetings with 4 consecutive quality outings (including one earlier this season).

Mat Latos counters for San Diego. He has been far from the pitcher we saw last season when he posted a 2.92 ERA and 1.08 WHIP throughout 2010. Through 8 starts this season he is just 1-6 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with only two of those outings being quality performances. A lack of run support is clearly a huge problem as he is receiving just 2.9 runs per game overall and a shocking 1.8 runs per game in 5 home starts. In two career starts vs the Cardinals, Latos is 0-2 with a 25.31 ERA and 4.13 WHIP spanning just 5.1 innings.

The Padres have dropped 5 consecutive games and 7 of their last 8 following last night's defeat. It isn't too difficult to spot where the problem is coming from with this team as they have only managed to tally 9 runs over the course of their last 8 games. They are hitting just .227 on the season and .197 at home which earns them the worst record in the Majors for both categories. The pitching has been good enough to keep some of their games close but the bottom line is that they are still 11 games under .500 including 12 games under .500 at home.

Pick: STL Cardinals moneyline (-117 odds) LOSER!

Risking 2.34 Units to win 2 Units.

BrewMaster · 05-25-11, 10:10 AM

Nice write-ups. Keep it going. I'm on the Cards as well

adam3248 · 05-25-11, 10:35 AM

Thanks BrewMaster

Best of luck!

adam3248 · 05-25-11, 10:50 AM

Best of luck to everyone with their picks tonight

mp5070 · 05-25-11, 10:54 AM

Liking the redbirds too

adam3248 · 05-25-11, 02:36 PM

OAK Athletics [T. Cahill] @ LA Angels [E. Santana]

Oakland have an edge over the Angels on the mound tonight. Trevor Cahill is one of the most under-rated starting pitchers in the league. He is 6-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in 10 starts this season. He has given up just 13 earned runs, 52 hits and 4 home runs in 65 1/3 innings. Ervin Santana will be the opposing pitcher tonight and he is 2-4 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Angels.

Cahill has been dominant when facing the Angels in previous meetings as he's gone 4-1 (6-1 on the moneyline) with a 1.81 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in 7 career starts against them. He has also only allowed 1 earned run and 24 base runners spanning 21 innings in his last 3 starts against the Angels.

Santana on the other hand has given up 10 earned runs and 32 base runners over 17 innings in his last 3 starts against the Athletics. It is also worth noting that the Angels are just 2-9 on the moneyline in their last 11 home games vs a team with a losing record on the road.

Additionally, the Angels tend to perform better offensively at home when facing left-handed starting pitchers as they are batting just .230 in their last 10 home games vs right-handers. Santana is 10-3 in his last 13 starts vs the Athletics which is a little worrying. However, Oakland's active hitters have a .316 batting average and .820 OPS collectively vs Santana spanning 196 at-bats.

Finally, Santana is 1-3 at home this season with a 3.89 ERA while the Athletics have won 9 of Cahill's last 11 starts vs AL West opponents.

I also lean towards the 'under' 7 runs in this one as i see the Athletics winning something like 4-2.

Pick: OAK Athletics moneyline (+100 odds)

Risking 1.5 Units to win 1.5 Units.

adam3248 · 05-25-11, 03:08 PM

OAK Athletics [T. Cahill] @ LA Angels [E. Santana]

As mentioned in my previous post, Trevor Cahill has been under-rated as a starting pitcher in the Majors over the last couple of years. He has great command over all of his pitches and has developed consistency with a great start to 2011 posting a 1.79 ERA in the process. This is also emphasized by the fact that he's only allowed more than 2 earned runs in one of his 10 starts so far this season.

Ervin Santana can be a fairly streaky pitcher but he has generally posted better numbers when pitching at home. He also pitched a complete game shutout in his last outing.

The 'under' is 4-0-1 in Cahill's last 5 starts vs the Angels and 13-6 'under' in Santana's last 19 starts vs the Athletics.

Pick: Game total UNDER 7.0 runs (-125 odds)

Risking 1.875 Units to win 1.5 Units.

adam3248 · 05-25-11, 03:12 PM

Had planned on just taking the Cardinals tonight but after further research into the games I have decided to add a 1.5 Unit play on Oakland moneyline and 1.5 Units on the 'under'.

Best of luck all!

adam3248 · 05-25-11, 07:52 PM

Added half a Unit to both Oakland moneyline and 'under' selections. Dissapointing loss for the Cardinals, both Carpenter and Latos pitched well and neither team deserved to lose. The Padres just managed to string some offense together when it mattered. Will take it on the chin and move on to the next one.. can't win them all!

adam3248 · 05-26-11, 05:57 PM

Dissapointing night last night as my picks finished 1-2 for an overall loss.

Last night's breakdown: -2.34 Units

Overall record: 4-3 +1.08 Units

adam3248 · 05-26-11, 05:59 PM

Just one pick from me for tonight. Apologies for the late post. I will post my analysis in a few minutes. My selection is 'Over' 8.0 runs in the CHI White Sox / TOR Blue Jays game. (-110 odds) risking 3.3 Units to win 3 Units.

Best of luck all!

adam3248 · 05-26-11, 06:04 PM

CHI White Sox [P. Humber] @ TOR Blue Jays [B. Morrow]

Phil Humber has pitched well this season for Chicago, but he's clearly overrated right now. His success is more due to the lack of a scouting report on him rather than the quality he brings to the mound.

Brandon Morrow is a flame-thrower, but he's wild and has been knocked around this year. Morrow is 2-2 with a 5.06 ERA in all starts, 0-2 with a 7.37 ERA in three home starts, and 0-1 with a 8.38 ERA in two lifetime starts versus Chicago. Morrow is 10-1 OVER (+9.0 Units) vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. The OVER is 10-1-1 in Morrow's last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The White Sox are 57-38 OVER (+16.7 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Pick: Game Total 'Over' 8.0 runs (-110 odds)

Risking 3.3 Units to win 3 Units.