MLB Projected lines/totals

ebemiss · 05-20-11, 02:08 PM

MLB Predicted lines/totals

I've been working on a baseball model and have recently added 2011 teams to predict lines and totals for MLB.

The display will show you a projected money line and game total for that particular game.

I rank teams overall (an RPI type rating) then factor in the starting pitcher rating (my created ranking), bullpen era, and ball park factor.

All I ask is if you use it and find any successful patterns (good or bad) over time, post them or pm me. They are just stat based projections, not my opinion.

I have models for a bunch of different sports. However Don't use the NHL predictor as it hasn't been updated and will be re-designed for next season.

I've also recently added Arena football, World Club soccer, and international basketball leagues. Take a look if you handicap any of those sports.

I use them as a starting point or tool in my handicapping. All are based on season long statistics and don't account for hot/cold streaks, injuries, etc...

I guess I can't post the link to the site so here are today's baseball numbers. (The link is listed in the site/link promotions forum on this site, or pm me I'll get it to you to try).

I'm looking for help finding patterns and tracking sports. If anyone is interested let me know.

Here are Friday's projected line/totals for inter league play.

Away-- Colorado Rockies Jason Hammel
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Z. Greinke -119

Projected Game Total 8.1
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Milwaukee Brewers
Better Bullpen ERA Colorado Rockies

Away-- Chicago Cubs D. Davis
Home-- Boston Red Sox Jon Lester -215

Projected Game Total 8.2
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Boston Red Sox
Better Bullpen ERA Boston Red Sox

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Travis Wood
Home-- Cleveland Indians A. White -121

Projected Game Total 8.5
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Cleveland Indians
Better Bullpen ERA Cleveland Indians

Away-- Texas Rangers C.J. Wilson
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Roy Halladay -161

Projected Game Total 7.4
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Philadelphia Phillies
Better Bullpen ERA Philadelphia Phillies

Away-- Washington Nationals Jason Marquis
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Jake Arrieta -135

Projected Game Total 8.7
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Baltimore Orioles
Better Bullpen ERA Washington Nationals

Away-- Houston Astros Aneury Rodriguez
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays Jo-Jo Reyes -167

Projected Game Total 9.1
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Toronto Blue Jays
Better Bullpen ERA Toronto Blue Jays

Away-- New York Mets R.A. Dickey
Home-- New York Yankees Freddy Garcia -174

Projected Game Total 9.2
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher New York Mets
Better Bullpen ERA New York Yankees

Away-- Detroit Tigers Brad Penny -128
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates Jeff Karstens

Projected Game Total 7.7
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Detroit Tigers
Better Bullpen ERA Pittsburgh Pirates

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Andy Sonnanstine
Home-- Florida Marlins Anibal Sanchez -126

Projected Game Total 7.9
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Florida Marlins
Better Bullpen ERA Tampa Bay Rays

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Chris Carpenter -134
Home-- Kansas City Royals Jeff Francis

Projected Game Total 8.8
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher St. Louis Cardinals
Better Bullpen ERA Kansas City Royals

Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Ted Lilly
Home-- Chicago White Sox Philip Humber -144

Projected Game Total 8.2
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Chicago White Sox
Better Bullpen ERA Los Angeles Dodgers

Away-- Minnesota Twins Brian Duensing
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks Ian Kennedy -141

Projected Game Total 8.9
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Arizona Diamondbacks
Better Bullpen ERA Arizona Diamondbacks

Away-- Atlanta Braves Tim Hudson -115
Home-- Los Angeles Angels Ervin Santana

Projected Game Total 8
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Atlanta Braves
Better Bullpen ERA Atlanta Braves

Away-- Seattle Mariners Erik Bedard
Home-- San Diego Padres Mat Latos -121

Projected Game Total 6.9
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher San Diego Padres
Better Bullpen ERA San Diego Padres

way-- Oakland Athletics Trevor Cahill
Home-- San Francisco Giants Ryan Vogelsong -114

Projected Game Total 6.8
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Oakland Athletics
Better Bullpen ERA San Francisco Giants

ebemiss · 05-20-11, 07:40 PM

posted record

0-0 (0.00)

5/20

Over 8 -105 Arizona/Minnesota

ebemiss · 05-21-11, 12:34 PM

Here are my numbers for saturday.

Away-- Colorado Rockies Clayton Mortensen
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Shaun Marcum -125

Projected Game Total 7.6
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Milwaukee Brewers
Better Bullpen ERA Colorado Rockies

Away-- Houston Astros Brett Myers
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays Brandon Morrow -162

Projected Game Total 8.6
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Toronto Blue Jays
Better Bullpen ERA Toronto Blue Jays

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Jake Westbrook -113
Home-- Kansas City Royals Nathan Adcock

Projected Game Total 8.8
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Kansas City Royals
Better Bullpen ERA Kansas City Royals

Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Jon Garland
Home-- Chicago White Sox Mark Buehrle -134

Projected Game Total 8.2
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Los Angeles Dodgers
Better Bullpen ERA Los Angeles Dodgers

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Homer Bailey
Home-- Cleveland Indians Josh Tomlin -122

Projected Game Total 8.5
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Cleveland Indians
Better Bullpen ERA Cleveland Indians

Away-- Washington Nationals John Lannan
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Jeremy Guthrie -149

Projected Game Total 8.7
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Baltimore Orioles
Better Bullpen ERA Washington Nationals

Away-- Detroit Tigers Max Scherzer -127
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates Kevin Correia

Projected Game Total 7.7
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Detroit Tigers
Better Bullpen ERA Pittsburgh Pirates

Away-- Oakland Athletics Brett Anderson
Home-- San Francisco Giants Tim Lincecum -127

Projected Game Total 6.3
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher San Francisco Giants
Better Bullpen ERA San Francisco Giants

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays David Price -131
Home-- Florida Marlins Javier Vazquez

Projected Game Total 7.9
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Tampa Bay Rays
Better Bullpen ERA Tampa Bay Rays

Away-- Texas Rangers Colby Lewis
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Cliff Lee -160

Projected Game Total 7.3
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Philadelphia Phillies
Better Bullpen ERA Philadelphia Phillies

Away-- New York Mets Chris Capuano
Home-- New York Yankees A.J. Burnett -174

Projected Game Total 9.2
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher New York Mets
Better Bullpen ERA New York Yankees

Away-- Chicago Cubs Carlos Zambrano
Home-- Boston Red Sox Alfredo Aceves -201

Projected Game Total 8.2
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Boston Red Sox
Better Bullpen ERA Boston Red Sox

Away-- Seattle Mariners Michael Pineda -116
Home-- San Diego Padres Clayton Richard

Projected Game Total 6.4
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Seattle Mariners
Better Bullpen ERA San Diego Padres

Away-- Atlanta Braves Tommy Hanson -113
Home-- Los Angeles Angels Joel Pineiro

Projected Game Total 7.5
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Atlanta Braves
Better Bullpen ERA Atlanta Braves

ebemiss · 05-22-11, 07:23 AM

Sunday projections

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- Colorado Rockies Ubaldo Jimenez
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Randy Wolf -117

Projected Game Total 8.1
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Colorado Rockies
Better Bullpen ERA Colorado Rockies

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Edinson Volquez
Home-- Cleveland Indians Carlos Carrasco -117

Projected Game Total 8.4
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Cincinnati Reds
Better Bullpen ERA Cleveland Indians

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- New York Mets Mike Pelfrey
Home-- New York Yankees Ivan Nova -177

Projected Game Total 9.2
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher New York Mets
Better Bullpen ERA New York Yankees

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- Houston Astros Wandy Rodriguez
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays Kyle Drabek -163

Projected Game Total 8.6
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Toronto Blue Jays
Better Bullpen ERA Toronto Blue Jays

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- Detroit Tigers Rick Porcello -125
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates Paul Maholm

Projected Game Total 7.7
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Detroit Tigers
Better Bullpen ERA Pittsburgh Pirates

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- Texas Rangers Matt Harrison
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Roy Oswalt -154

Projected Game Total 7.2
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Philadelphia Phillies
Better Bullpen ERA Philadelphia Phillies

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- Washington Nationals Jordan Zimmermann
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Chris Tillman -129

Projected Game Total 8.7
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Washington Nationals
Better Bullpen ERA Washington Nationals

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Jaime Garcia -151
Home-- Kansas City Royals Sean OSullivan

Projected Game Total 8.8
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher St. Louis Cardinals
Better Bullpen ERA Kansas City Royals

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Hiroki Kuroda
Home-- Chicago White Sox Edwin Jackson -139

Projected Game Total 8.2
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Los Angeles Dodgers
Better Bullpen ERA Los Angeles Dodgers

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- Atlanta Braves Derek Lowe -127
Home-- Los Angeles Angels Tyler Chatwood

Projected Game Total 8.5
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Atlanta Braves
Better Bullpen ERA Atlanta Braves

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- Seattle Mariners Felix Hernandez -114
Home-- San Diego Padres Tim Stauffer

Projected Game Total 6.2
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Seattle Mariners
Better Bullpen ERA San Diego Padres

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- Oakland Athletics Gio Gonzalez
Home-- San Francisco Giants Jonathan Sanchez -122

Projected Game Total 7.1
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Oakland Athletics
Better Bullpen ERA San Francisco Giants

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- Minnesota Twins Francisco Liriano
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks Daniel Hudson -148

Projected Game Total 8.6
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Arizona Diamondbacks
Better Bullpen ERA Arizona Diamondbacks

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- Chicago Cubs James Russell
Home-- Boston Red Sox Tim Wakefield -190

Projected Game Total 8.9
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Boston Red Sox
Better Bullpen ERA Boston Red Sox

the_mathman · 05-23-11, 03:33 AM

interesting.
I hope that you will continue to post for same week...

ebemiss · 05-23-11, 06:46 AM

Monday's projections

NSR Predicted Line

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Bronson Arroyo
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels -156

Projected Game Total 7.2
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Philadelphia Phillies
Better Bullpen ERA Philadelphia Phillies

Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw -121
Home-- Houston Astros Bud Norris

Projected Game Total 7.5
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Los Angeles Dodgers
Better Bullpen ERA Los Angeles Dodgers

Away-- Washington Nationals Tom Gorzelanny
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Yovani Gallardo -162

Projected Game Total 7.6
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Milwaukee Brewers
Better Bullpen ERA Milwaukee Brewers

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Kyle Lohse -130
Home-- San Diego Padres Dustin Moseley

Projected Game Total 6.7
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher St. Louis Cardinals
Better Bullpen ERA San Diego Padres

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Jeremy Hellickson
Home-- Detroit Tigers Phil Coke -111

Projected Game Total 7.7
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Tampa Bay Rays
Better Bullpen ERA Tampa Bay Rays

Away-- Toronto Blue Jays Carlos Villanueva
Home-- New York Yankees Bartolo Colon -159

Projected Game Total 9
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher New York Yankees
Better Bullpen ERA Toronto Blue Jays

Away-- Chicago White Sox John Danks
Home-- Texas Rangers Alexi Ogando -134

Projected Game Total 8.6
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Texas Rangers
Better Bullpen ERA Texas Rangers

Away-- Seattle Mariners Jason Vargas -123
Home-- Minnesota Twins Carl Pavano

Projected Game Total 7.7
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Seattle Mariners
Better Bullpen ERA Seattle Mariners

Away-- Oakland Athletics J. Outman
Home-- Los Angeles Angels Jered Weaver -164

Projected Game Total 7.4
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Los Angeles Angels
Better Bullpen ERA Oakland Athletics

Away-- Boston Red Sox Clay Buchholz -127
Home-- Cleveland Indians Justin Masterson

Projected Game Total 8
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Cleveland Indians
Better Bullpen ERA Cleveland Indians

skrtelfan · 05-23-11, 10:34 AM

Regarding totals, you really need to include weather in modeling totals as wind, temperature, and humidity, among other things, affect run scoring.

ebemiss · 05-23-11, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by skrtelfan

Regarding totals, you really need to include weather in modeling totals as wind, temperature, and humidity, among other things, affect run scoring.

The totals are based on different statistical variables based on overall SEASON statistics. Users should be able to take that number and handicap weather and other daily situations on their own.

This isn't and there isn't a magic formula. This is just a guideline and starting point for handicapping. I spend enough time updating this information, i'm not going to add a bunch of added variables. If I like the play i'll adjust my starting number based on your situations above.

ebemiss · 05-23-11, 03:03 PM

1-0 (+1.00)

5/23

Detroit Tigers -103

ebemiss · 05-24-11, 05:47 AM

Tuesday Numbers

Away-- Atlanta Braves Jair Jurrjens -130
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates Charlie Morton

Projected Game Total 7.5
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Atlanta Braves
Better Bullpen ERA Pittsburgh Pirates

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Johnny Cueto
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies V. Worley -135

Projected Game Total 7.7
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Cincinnati Reds
Better Bullpen ERA Philadelphia Phillies

Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Chad Billingsley -117
Home-- Houston Astros J.A. Happ

Projected Game Total 8
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Los Angeles Dodgers
Better Bullpen ERA Los Angeles Dodgers

Away-- New York Mets Jonathon Niese
Home-- Chicago Cubs Ryan Dempster -130

Projected Game Total 8.9
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher New York Mets
Better Bullpen ERA Chicago Cubs

Away-- Washington Nationals Livan Hernandez
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Chris Narveson -154

Projected Game Total 8.1
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Milwaukee Brewers
Better Bullpen ERA Milwaukee Brewers

Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Joshua Collmenter
Home-- Colorado Rockies Jhoulys Chacin -127

Projected Game Total 8.2
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Arizona Diamondbacks
Better Bullpen ERA Colorado Rockies

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Kyle McClellan -118
Home-- San Diego Padres Aaron Harang

Projected Game Total 6.6
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher San Diego Padres
Better Bullpen ERA San Diego Padres

Away-- Florida Marlins Ricky Nolasco
Home-- San Francisco Giants Matt Cain -126

Projected Game Total 6.6
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher San Francisco Giants
Better Bullpen ERA San Francisco Giants

Away-- Kansas City Royals D. Duffy
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Zach Britton -158

Projected Game Total 8.1
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Baltimore Orioles
Better Bullpen ERA Baltimore Orioles

Away-- Toronto Blue Jays Ricky Romero
Home-- New York Yankees CC Sabathia -148

Projected Game Total 7.9
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Toronto Blue Jays
Better Bullpen ERA Toronto Blue Jays

Away-- Boston Red Sox Josh Beckett -146
Home-- Cleveland Indians Fausto Carmona

Projected Game Total 8
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Boston Red Sox
Better Bullpen ERA Cleveland Indians

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Wade Davis
Home-- Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander -135

Projected Game Total 7.4
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Detroit Tigers
Better Bullpen ERA Tampa Bay Rays

Away-- Chicago White Sox Jake Peavy
Home-- Texas Rangers Derek Holland -128

Projected Game Total 8.9
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Chicago White Sox
Better Bullpen ERA Texas Rangers

Away-- Seattle Mariners Doug Fister -115
Home-- Minnesota Twins Nick Blackburn

Projected Game Total 8.2
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Seattle Mariners
Better Bullpen ERA Seattle Mariners

Away-- Oakland Athletics G. Moscoso
Home-- Los Angeles Angels Dan Haren -164

Projected Game Total 7.3
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Los Angeles Angels
Better Bullpen ERA Oakland Athletics

Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Joe Saunders
Home-- Colorado Rockies Jorge de la Rosa -156

Projected Game Total 8.2
Notes:

xx NSR Better Pitcher Colorado Rockies
Better Bullpen ERA Colorado Rockies

ebemiss · 05-24-11, 12:15 PM

record

2-0 (+2.00)

5/24

Under 8.5 Arz/Col GM 1 +105

The Sensei · 05-24-11, 12:41 PM

Very interesting. Will definitely keep looking in this thread to see how this system is turning out

ebemiss · 05-24-11, 12:54 PM

PLAY is VOID for GM 1 pitching change. NO PLAY!

Added plays

Under 8 Phi/Cin -105
Over 7.5 Bos/Cle +105
Seattle +105
Over 7.5 Sea/Min -110

Flight · 05-24-11, 06:51 PM

Maybe you should track this in the Baseball Subforum?

HoulihansTX · 05-24-11, 06:54 PM

Yo Ebe, have you stopped postin @sportmemo?

Are you still doing projections for thevNBA playoffs?

ebemiss · 05-24-11, 08:22 PM

Originally posted by Flight

Maybe you should track this in the Baseball Subforum?

I had a post in the sub forum and just a post here. A moderator made a duplicate thread. I didn't intend this thread to be a duplicate, they took it upon themselves. I'll start a new one tomorrow in the baseball forum. Sorry for any inconvience

Flight · 05-24-11, 11:05 PM

No inconvenience, just a suggestion. Good luck with the projections.