Walt's Strategy Tracking

[killawookie]

I was extremely successful last year, (on a recreational bettor's stand point) with the system I'm going to start to track.

Basic Rundown:
What I do in this system is pick my spots based on my perception of team's performance (capping) and make only one outcome be counted as a loss, losing by a point. This system uses Run Lines, Adjusted Run Lines, and Heavy Road Dogs.

Example:
My first official play of my tracking will be the example.

Thursday, May 12th, 2011
Play#1
NY Mets (Niese) vs. Colorado Rockies (Jimenez)

Cover Bet - Mets ML (+175) .571u to win 1u
Predicted Win - Rockies -1.5 (+110) 1u to win 1.1u

Reason: Both team have been playing tough defense and are now throwing in two struggling pitchers. Jimenez has yet to get his stride back from last year and this is a great opportunity to do so. I am banking on Colorado holding the NYMets back and swinging away today against a rather lackluster Niese who threw horribly at home last time they met. I feeling it will be a 3-6 COL win. However with the extra day's rest NYMets have a slight chance to light Jimenez up just as well, making us even for the day.

[killawookie]

This method involves risk, it also may provide a stressful day with only a draw, but I feel that instead of hoping for one outcome I like to ensure some 'just-in-case' protection of those shitty days Ace pitchers tend to have. This is a grind strategy with no chase system involved, rather I pick my spots based off of anything that will jump out to me as advantageous. I hope people enjoy watching my season play out, some days will have multiple plays and others may have none. Just remember, I'm not a tout, professional, or even want to be one, I AM NOT PERFECT, I'm playing for a W

[killawookie]

Thursday, May 12th, 2011
Play#2
KC Royals (OSullivan) vs. NY Yankees (Nova)

Cover Bet - Royals ML (+182) 1.1u to win 2u
Predicted Win - Yankees -1.5 (+100) 2u to win 2u

Reason: Nova is having a great run so far... his last appearance was a great example. It doesn't matter who is pitching for the Royals because it is a comfortable night game that the Yankees are going to eat the Royals alive. Solid pitching and a great night for either ARod or Granderson(see below) will make this a 1-7 game for the yanks..

Alex Rodriguez is 4 for 9 with two doubles and a home run against O'Sullivan.
Curtis Granderson is 3-for-7 (.429), with all three hits being home runs, in his career against Royals starter Sean O'Sullivan.

[killawookie]

So, yesterday was a good example of why I'm doing what I'm doing. Two HEAVY road dogs won outright yesterday, absolutely crushed both favs. Therefore the system record is as follows:

System Record: 0 - 0 - 2
Profit/Loss: EVEN

Friday, May 13th, 2011
Play#3
Baltimore(17-19) SP: Guthrie (1-5) @


Tampa Bay(22-15) SP: Hellickson (3-2)


Cover Bet - Baltimore -1.5 (+200) 1u to win 2u
Predicted Win - TB Rays -1.5 (+135) 2u to win 2.7u

Reason: Baltimore is coming off a sweep against the Mariners, big fricken whoop. They have their worse pitcher on the mound tonight and he will continue to under perform. TB on the other hand has ended the Indians home streak and won the series the past two nights with some decent batting on top of their bullpen playing up to par. I predict this game is a 3-8 TB WIN tonight if Hellickson keeps his cool.

Play#4
San Diego(15-22) SP: Moseley (1-4)


Colorado(19-16) SP: De La Rosa (4-1)




Cover Bet - Padres -1.5 (+200) 1u to win 2u
Predicted Win - Rockies -1.5 (+125) 2u to win 2.5u

Reason: Sloppy, sloppy performance yesterday by the Rockies. Their best hopes for a good season is on the mound tonight. They are being heavy criticized for their lack of offense the past few series and now their chance to heat back up. Moseley is a hit or a miss pitcher, he's either shutting teams out or tiring out early. I see him faltering again as he did last week against the DBacks, the Padres leaving him in alittle too long because of an also shaky bullpen, and this game going to be a 1-4 win for the Rockies to start the series.

[killawookie]

System Record: 2 - 0 - 2
Profit/Loss: +3.2U

Both Friday plays hit for a profit of 1.7U and 1.5U after cover bet deducted from my predicted win. Other than trying to guess the scores correctly.. I was spot on with pitcher analysis. Cya tomorrow!

[killawookie]

System Record: 2 - 0 - 2
Profit/Loss: +3.2U

Saturday, May 14th, 2011
Play#5
Seattle(16-23) SP: Bedard (1-4) @



Cleveland(24-13) SP: White (1-0)




Cover Bet - Seattle ML (+117) .85u to win 1u
Predicted Win - Cleveland -1.5 (+165) 1u to win 1.65u

Reason: Alex White is a solid pticher that the Indians are going to start relying on if they want to keep their AL lead. Small play as the Mariner bats have been alittle spotty recently so it could go either way. I predict a 2-5 Win for Cleveland

[killawookie]

Play# 5 comes to a DRAW .. as it was PPD due to rain. Not too happy about it because from one innings worth of play .. it looked promising.


System Record: 2 - 0 - 3
Profit/Loss: +3.2U

Saturday, May 14th, 2011
Play#6
Baltimore(17-20) SP: Bergesen (0-4) @



Tampa Bay(23-15) SP: Davis (4-2)




Cover Bet - Baltimore ML (+155) 1.94u to win 3u
Predicted Win - TB Rays -1.5 (+130) 3u to win 3.9u

Reason: Bergesen is straight up garbage.. it doesn't matter if Davis and TB's bullpen sucks the big one .. Bergesen is gonna stay in for 6 innings, allow probably 10 hits and 6 runs. Predict a blow out tonight 2-9 TB WIN

[killawookie]

Saturday, May 14th, 2011
Play#7
Boston(18-20) SP: Beckett (2-1)


New York(20-16) SP: Sabathia (3-2)



Cover Bet - Red Sox -1.5(+170) 2.35u to win 4u
Predicted Win - Yankees -1.5 (+155) 3u to win 4.65u

Reason: One of these two teams are going to light the other up. I'll take CC any day on a night game on the east coast. But both of these teams offense have been spotty all year, hell all the time. I'd expect to see is 3-6 Yanks win.. if I'm wrong and the Red Sox blow em up .. we still win. Either way.. this isn't going to be a single run game tonight.

[killawookie]

Play#6 - Cover Bet hit ... counts as DRAW
Play#7 - My Split Bet hit on the low positive payout ... WON 1 UNIT after taking the yankees risk amount out of the red sox payout.

System Record: 3 - 0 - 4
Profit/Loss: +4.2U

[killawookie]

Sunday, May 15th, 2011
Play#8
Pittsburgh(18-21) SP: Correia (5-3)


Milwaukee (18-21) SP: Greinke (1-1)



Cover Bet - Pirates ML (+162) 1.85u to win 3u
Predicted Win - Brewers -1.5 (+125) 3u to win 3.75u

Reason: Sweep the pirates!

[killawookie]

System Record: 4 - 0 - 4
Profit/Loss: +6.1U

Sunday, May 15th, 2011
Play#8

Hit a profit of +1.9U with the Brewers finishing the sweep in a game with a couple of close calls. That's it for today .. stay tuned for tomorrows plays before the 7 oclock games

[killawookie]

Monday, May 16th, 2011
Play#9


Toronto (20-20) SP: Drabek (2-2) @

Detroit (22-18) SP: Scherzer (6-0)

Cover Bet - Toronto ML (+141) 1.42u to win 2u
Predicted Win - Tigers -1.5 (+140) 2u to win 2.80u

Play#10
New York (20-18) SP: Burnett (4-2) @

Tampa Bay (23-17) SP: Price (5-3)

Cover Bet - Yankees ML (+132) 2.27u to win 3u
Predicted Win - Rays -1.5 (+145) 3u to win 4.35u

Reason: This is my first time this year betting against the Yankees... but it needs to be done. They are in the middle of a slump, team is pissed at Posada's diva-like attitude, Jeter's comments about that situation... and plain ol' shitty performance the past four series. TB will get out of their slump in this series ... starting today.

Play#11
Pittsburgh (18-22) SP: Maholm (1-5) @

Washington (19-21) SP: Lannan (2-4)

Cover Bet - Pirates ML (-104) 3.12u to win 3u
Predicted Win - Nationals -1.5 (+190) 3u to win 5.70u

Reason: Fade Pittsburg, they have been hitting well but their pitching, bullpen, and defense sucks. Lannan is one of the better pitchers for the Nats, he received half of his losses so far against Halladay .. so he's pretty much had tough competition. I'd predict a 3-5 win for the Nats

[vitalyo]

Interesting system .
GL .

[cala56]

I like it.

[killawookie]

Play#9 - DRAW

Play#10 - LOSS -5.27U

Play#11 - WIN +2.58U

ON THE DAY - DOWN - 2.69U

System Record: 5 - 1 - 5
Profit/Loss: +3.41U

So after my first loss I'm am going to stick with a BEST BET of the DAY type of picks rather than shotgun my leans as actual plays. I will be laying more down potentially on the picks i'm really liking, which make rock my bankroll as this system is a big risk/small reward for the trade for a high sucess percentage. However, in order to stay in the PLUS profit category for the year ... I will have to keep a 75% WIN/25% LOSS ratio. Giving the variation on unit amount per play... it may boil down to me needing to hit a 80% WIN to stay positive.

[killawookie]

Play #12

Cubs @ Reds

Cover Bet - Cubs ML (+111) to win 6u
Predicted Win - Reds -1.5 (+170) 6u to win 10.2u

Reason: Plainly... Because of the REDS currently stats vs. Shitty Cubs squad
2011 REGULAR SEASON RANKINGS

RUNS


218 2nd Overall


BATTING AVERAGE


.269 4th Overall


ON BASE PERCENTAGE


.343 2nd Overall


SLUGGING PCT


.431 2nd Overall

[killawookie]

Cover Bet - Cubs ML (+111) 5.41u to win 6u
Predicted Win - Reds -1.5 (+170) 6u to win 10.2u

PLAY # 12 - WIN - +4.79

System Record: 6 - 1 - 5
Profit/Loss: +8.20U

See you tommorow for the wins to continue

[killawookie]

Play # 13

Detroit @ Red Sox

Cover Bet - Detroit ML (+155) 1.94u to win 3u
Predicted Win - Red Sox -1.5 (+110) 3u to win 3.3u

Reason: Boston has had a day off due to rain delay, they are going to continue their streak in order to climb back to the top where they have been projected all off-season. The O/U says this game is going to be a 9 run game... I'd say off that info I'd go with a 2-5 win for Boston!

[Redscot]

Enjoying following this one....keep it up and good luck!