Fair MLB System 2011

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  • Fair
    SBR High Roller
    • 11-25-10
    • 216

    #1
    Fair MLB System 2011
    This is a system i've used last year and i've backtested for the 2009 too. Last year this system went 93-0 and in the 2009 was undefeated too. This is clearly a chase system, a 3 game chase system. I don't like to chase and i never use the chase system for other sports; but i think that baseball is perfect for a 3 game chase but you have to know what you are doing!
    So basically this system is based on recent form, particularly i will back a team that is playing well at home and fading a team that is playing bad on the road. I apply also some common sens filter like avoid to bet on a poor team even if they are playing well recently. It is very important that the system have to start the first week of may and ends the last week of august. Last year there were 3 system losses in september, so i will stop to play at the end of august. I am pretty sure that doesn't exist a perfect and unbeatable system, so i would not be surprised if I will lose a couple of system series. Last year i' ve gone 7 times to C bet (all wons). So even with a 2 or 3 losses i will be able to gain a decent profit, especially because i will avoid to bet high juice. So the system start today
  • Fair
    SBR High Roller
    • 11-25-10
    • 216

    #2
    5/6 Today's plays

    Washington @ Florida = Florida [A bet]
    Milwaukee @ St. Louis = St. Louis [A bet]
    Comment
    • Fair
      SBR High Roller
      • 11-25-10
      • 216

      #3
      5/7 Today's plays

      Originally posted by Fair
      Washington @ Florida = Florida [A bet] LOSE
      Milwaukee @ St. Louis = St. Louis [A bet] WIN

      Washington @ Florida = Florida [B bet]
      Comment
      • Fair
        SBR High Roller
        • 11-25-10
        • 216

        #4
        5/8 Today's plays

        Originally posted by Fair
        Washington @ Florida = Florida [B bet] LOST

        Washington @ Florida = Florida [C bet]
        Comment
        • Grinder12000
          SBR MVP
          • 04-21-11
          • 1809

          #5
          Sure hope FLO wins today for your sanity!! Posting picks is normally for any a kiss of doom for ANY system.

          The question is what are you usign for parameters - define bad and good.

          Plus - one thing I never understand is how do you cope with the moneylines in baseball. For instance = you bet to WIN a -155 team and lose - how much do you bet in game two at -125 since you have to make up the 1.55 units from the previous game. In game 2 do you wager (1.55+1.25 = 2.8) 2.8 units?
          Comment
          • Fair
            SBR High Roller
            • 11-25-10
            • 216

            #6
            Originally posted by Grinder12000
            Sure hope FLO wins today for your sanity!! Posting picks is normally for any a kiss of doom for ANY system.

            The question is what are you usign for parameters - define bad and good.

            Plus - one thing I never understand is how do you cope with the moneylines in baseball. For instance = you bet to WIN a -155 team and lose - how much do you bet in game two at -125 since you have to make up the 1.55 units from the previous game. In game 2 do you wager (1.55+1.25 = 2.8) 2.8 units?
            Basically i define a good form team after a home sweep and a bad form team after been swept on the road.
            For money management... i alway bet to win 1 unit for every single series. If i lose A bet, i take the loss and i add 1 unit for the B bet. For C bet i do the same; i take A + B losses and i add 1 unit to win. Clearly depends on the moneylines, but i think it's pretty easy to calculate the amount to play.

            Ah well, easy win for the Marlins today... fortunately!
            Not a perfect start but a win is always a win
            Comment
            • zeusky
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 12-10-09
              • 622

              #7
              Interesting stuff. Will keep an eye on this. GL bro.
              Comment
              • Fair
                SBR High Roller
                • 11-25-10
                • 216

                #8
                Originally posted by Fair
                Washington @ Florida = Florida [C bet] WIN
                Originally posted by zeusky
                Interesting stuff. Will keep an eye on this. GL bro.
                Thanks zeusky. Today no plays; i'll be back tomorrow with a couple of plays. Here's the updated record:


                System record: 2-0

                A bet: 1-1
                B bet: 0-1
                C bet: 1-0
                Comment
                • Fair
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 11-25-10
                  • 216

                  #9
                  5/10 Today's plays

                  Kansas City @ NY Yankees = NY Yankees -1,5 [A bet]
                  Washington @ Atlanta = Atlanta -1,5 [A bet]
                  Arizona @ San Francisco = San Francisco -1,5 [A bet]





                  System record: 2-0

                  A bet: 1-1
                  B bet: 0-1
                  C bet: 1-0
                  Comment
                  • wade1
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 04-14-11
                    • 379

                    #10
                    With this system you have to win at least 9 of 10 to come out ahead. All it takes is a couple 3 game losses in row and your in trouble. Will wipe out all your wins. Been there done that
                    Comment
                    • wade1
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 04-14-11
                      • 379

                      #11
                      What if your c bet is -230 OUCH
                      Comment
                      • wade1
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 04-14-11
                        • 379

                        #12
                        Anyway, Good Luck
                        Comment
                        • Fair
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 11-25-10
                          • 216

                          #13
                          Thanks wade for the advices, anyway when the odds are higher than -180 i will play the run line to prevent big losses. For example tonight i will play the braves at -1.5 while the giants moneyline.
                          Comment
                          • Fair
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 11-25-10
                            • 216

                            #14
                            5/11 Today's plays

                            Originally posted by Fair
                            Kansas City @ NY Yankees = NY Yankees -1,5 [A bet] WIN
                            Washington @ Atlanta = Atlanta -1,5 [A bet] LOST
                            Arizona @ San Francisco = San Francisco -1,5 [A bet] LOST

                            Washington @ Atlanta = Atlanta -1,5 [B bet]
                            Arizona @ San Francisco = San Francisco [B bet]
                            Comment
                            • Fair
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 11-25-10
                              • 216

                              #15
                              5/12 Today's plays

                              Originally posted by Fair
                              Washington @ Atlanta = Atlanta -1,5 [B bet] LOST
                              Arizona @ San Francisco = San Francisco [B bet] WIN

                              *Washington @ Atlanta = Atlanta -1 [C bet]




                              * I decided to play this C bet at -1 because moneyline -180 is a high juice and i can risk a big loss. So if Atlanta will win by 1 run i will lose only A+B bet (around 3 units).


                              [sorry for the double post ]
                              Comment
                              • Fair
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 11-25-10
                                • 216

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Fair
                                *Washington @ Atlanta = Atlanta -1 [C bet] PUSH

                                I consider this series as a half loss, because i've only lost A and B bet with low odds, so the total loss is 2,65 units. Not a good thing, but neither a tragedy. With 4 wins i'm still up
                                Comment
                                • Fair
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 11-25-10
                                  • 216

                                  #17
                                  5/13 Today's plays

                                  Kansas City @ Detroit = Detroit -1 [A bet]
                                  Arizona @ LA Dodgers = La Dodgers -1 [A bet]
                                  Seattle @ Cleveland = Cleveland [A bet]




                                  System record: 4-0,5

                                  A bet: 2-3
                                  B bet: 1-2
                                  C bet: 1-0

                                  Total units won: +1.35
                                  Comment
                                  • Fair
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 11-25-10
                                    • 216

                                    #18
                                    5/14 Today's plays

                                    Originally posted by Fair
                                    Kansas City @ Detroit = Detroit -1 [A bet] WIN
                                    Arizona @ LA Dodgers = La Dodgers -1 [A bet] PUSH
                                    Seattle @ Cleveland = Cleveland [A bet] WIN

                                    Arizona @ LA Dodgers = La Dodgers [A bet]
                                    Comment
                                    • Fair
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 11-25-10
                                      • 216

                                      #19
                                      5/15 Today's plays

                                      Originally posted by Fair
                                      Arizona @ LA Dodgers = La Dodgers [A bet] LOST

                                      Arizona @ LA Dodgers = La Dodgers [B bet]
                                      Comment
                                      • Fair
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 11-25-10
                                        • 216

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Fair
                                        Arizona @ LA Dodgers = La Dodgers [B bet] LOST

                                        Another half loss... strange may, a lot of away wins but i'm sure i will do better from now. Today begin 2 game series so i will not play until friday. Here's the updated recors:


                                        System record: 6 - 1

                                        A bet: 4-4
                                        B bet: 1-3
                                        C bet: 1-0

                                        Total units won: - 0,57
                                        Comment
                                        • Fair
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 11-25-10
                                          • 216

                                          #21
                                          5/20 Today's plays

                                          Finally back in action with today's interleague matches:

                                          Chicago Cubs @ Boston = Boston -1 [A bet]
                                          Oakland @ San Francisco = San Francisco [A bet]
                                          LA Dodgers @ CHI White Sox = Chicago [A bet]
                                          Houston @ Toronto = Toronto [A bet]
                                          Comment
                                          • Fair
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 11-25-10
                                            • 216

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Fair

                                            Chicago Cubs @ Boston = Boston -1 [A bet] WIN
                                            Oakland @ San Francisco = San Francisco [A bet] WIN
                                            LA Dodgers @ CHI White Sox = Chicago [A bet] LOST
                                            Houston @ Toronto = Toronto [A bet] LOST

                                            LA Dodgers @ CHI White Sox = Chicago [B bet]
                                            Houston @ Toronto = Toronto -1 [B bet]


                                            System record: 8 - 1

                                            A bet: 6-6
                                            B bet: 1-3
                                            C bet: 1-0

                                            Total units won: + 1,43
                                            Comment
                                            • Fair
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 11-25-10
                                              • 216

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Fair
                                              LA Dodgers @ CHI White Sox = Chicago [B bet] WIN
                                              Houston @ Toronto = Toronto -1 [B bet] WIN

                                              I'm always happy when i avoid a couple of C bet


                                              System record: 10 - 1

                                              A bet: 6-6
                                              B bet: 3-3
                                              C bet: 1-0

                                              Total units won: + 3,43
                                              Comment
                                              • Fair
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 11-25-10
                                                • 216

                                                #24
                                                5/23 Today's plays

                                                Here we go with another baseball week


                                                Cincinnati @ Philadelphia = Philadelphia [A bet]
                                                Washington @ Milwaukee = Milwaukee [A bet]
                                                Comment
                                                • Fair
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 11-25-10
                                                  • 216

                                                  #25
                                                  5/24 Today's plays

                                                  Originally posted by Fair


                                                  Cincinnati @ Philadelphia = Philadelphia [A bet] WIN
                                                  Washington @ Milwaukee = Milwaukee [A bet] WIN

                                                  Two large wins yesterday. Today i have another play:

                                                  Florida @ San Francisco = San Francisco [A bet]



                                                  System record: 12 - 1

                                                  A bet: 8-6
                                                  B bet: 3-3
                                                  C bet: 1-0

                                                  Total units won: + 5,43
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Fair
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 11-25-10
                                                    • 216

                                                    #26
                                                    5/25 Today's plays

                                                    Originally posted by Fair

                                                    Florida @ San Francisco = San Francisco [A bet] LOST

                                                    Florida @ San Francisco = San Francisco [B bet]
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Fair
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 11-25-10
                                                      • 216

                                                      #27
                                                      5/26 Today's plays

                                                      Originally posted by Fair
                                                      Florida @ San Francisco = San Francisco [B bet] LOST

                                                      Florida @ San Francisco = San Francisco [C bet]
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Fair
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 11-25-10
                                                        • 216

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Fair
                                                        Florida @ San Francisco = San Francisco [C bet] LOST

                                                        Another bad loss... very strange. Anyway it's time to recover. I've 3 plays for the weekend:

                                                        Kansas City @ Texas = Texas -1 [A bet]
                                                        Cincinnati @ Atlanta = Atlanta [A bet]
                                                        San Francisco @ Milwaukee = Milwaukee [A bet]


                                                        System record: 12 - 2

                                                        A bet: 8-7
                                                        B bet: 3-4
                                                        C bet: 1-1

                                                        Total units won: - 5,42
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Fair
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 11-25-10
                                                          • 216

                                                          #29
                                                          5/28 Today's plays

                                                          Originally posted by Fair

                                                          Kansas City @ Texas = Texas -1 [A bet] LOST
                                                          Cincinnati @ Atlanta = Atlanta [A bet] LOST
                                                          San Francisco @ Milwaukee = Milwaukee [A bet] LOST

                                                          Kansas City @ Texas = Texas -1 [B bet]
                                                          Cincinnati @ Atlanta = Atlanta [B bet]
                                                          San Francisco @ Milwaukee = Milwaukee [B bet]
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Fair
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 11-25-10
                                                            • 216

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Fair
                                                            Kansas City @ Texas = Texas -1 [B bet] WIN
                                                            Cincinnati @ Atlanta = Atlanta [B bet] WIN
                                                            San Francisco @ Milwaukee = Milwaukee [B bet] WIN



                                                            System record: 15 - 2

                                                            A bet: 8-10
                                                            B bet: 6-4
                                                            C bet: 1-1

                                                            Total units won: - 2,42
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Fair
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 11-25-10
                                                              • 216

                                                              #31
                                                              5/30 Today's plays

                                                              Start of a new week with a lot of plays. Let's hope for a good week

                                                              San Francisco @ St. Louis = St Louis [A bet]
                                                              Colorado @ LA Dodgers = LA Dodgers [A bet]
                                                              Baltimore @ Seattle = Seattle [A bet]
                                                              Cleveland @ Toronto = Toronto [A bet]
                                                              CHI White Sox = Boston = Boston -1 [A bet]
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Fair
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 11-25-10
                                                                • 216

                                                                #32
                                                                5/31 Today's plays

                                                                Originally posted by Fair

                                                                San Francisco @ St. Louis = St Louis [A bet] LOST
                                                                Colorado @ LA Dodgers = LA Dodgers [A bet] WIN
                                                                Baltimore @ Seattle = Seattle [A bet] WIN
                                                                Cleveland @ Toronto = Toronto [A bet] WIN
                                                                CHI White Sox = Boston = Boston -1 [A bet] LOST

                                                                San Francisco @ St. Louis = St Louis [B bet]
                                                                CHI White Sox = Boston = Boston [B bet]
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Fair
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 11-25-10
                                                                  • 216

                                                                  #33
                                                                  6/1 Today's plays

                                                                  Originally posted by Fair
                                                                  San Francisco @ St. Louis = St Louis [B bet] WIN
                                                                  CHI White Sox = Boston = Boston [B bet] LOST

                                                                  CHI White Sox = Boston = Boston [C bet]
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • zeusky
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 12-10-09
                                                                    • 622

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I am with you on the Red Sox; just wish it was someone else other than old Timmy on the mound.
                                                                    Comment
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