Cardinals and some more shit ( season thread)

[BigDan]

what up everyone, been gambling for to many years to count, like most of us ive had really good seasons and not so good others, really just started messing with baseball the last few years (as football and college hoops are really my thing), really didnt do anything but watch this 1st month this season so admittedly im not really tuned in to everything going on yet with the exception of my Cardinals who ive always been pretty good with as although it pains me to bet against them i never have a problem being brutally honest about when to fade them...


enough of all that, took a little while off and just re-upped so figured id come join you wonderful folks and see if we can make some money, always intrested in others thoughts so feel free to share as long as you arnt one of the many haters around here (you know who you are)....

on to business....

stl +103 (5dimes) 1unit........ok cards havnt won a freaking game yet when Carp has pitched but not because he hasnt been solid but because of a lack of run support and dreadful bullpen play (which is starting to improve i believe)...atl back off a long west coast swing just screams value for me taking Carp at + money to finally get a win....

also lean to playing the under 7 but not a big fan of playing a side and total in the same game....

[oakas]

Really think the best play on the board tonight is the Cardinals OVER tonight.

Good luck, BD.

[easywinner]

I'd have to say by early indications that the over 7 actually looks pretty good to me also. Here's why. Carp is .500 vs. the Braves and has an era in the 8's at Turner Field, while Hudson has a career era in the 6's against the cards at Turner. Both teams are swinging hot sticks right now. Add to that the Cards inability early on to close out games blowing or almost blowing multiple late leads this season. I'd have to look into it a bit more later and see the exact lineups put out before the game and the weather but I'm leaning over 7 right now. I'm reluctant to pick a side but i agree Carp is due for a win, i just don't know if this is an easy spot for him to pick it up unless we go with the theory that the cards give him some good run support and if that's the case then the over is likely imo. I think i read that the braves averaged 6 runs a game during their recent road trip and the redbirds put up an 11 spot last night and have the highest team batting average and runs scored in mlb currently. If the cards actually had a shutdown closer they'd be like 19-6 right now and that would be without Carpenter having a win on the season and with no Waino the ace. Here's some stats i dug up to support the game. Cards are 3-0 this season as a dog of their opening price, while Atlanta is 0-3 as a favorite of their opening price. Coming off of a shutout of their opponent like they are their previous game, the braves are 2-11 the past 2 seasons. In a game between the cards and braves in which either Carpenter or Hudson has started for their respective team the over is 15-1. I think you have to really try to digest what kind of start you think carp is going to have have, that pretty much is the key to this game on the side and total imo. GL tonight.

[BigDan]

stl +103...winner...........1-0 +1.03 units.......

[drfunkmaster]

[BigDan]

at risk of looking like a serious homer i gotta do it again...

stl +130. .5 to .65...westbrook has had his problems but his sinker looked much better last game and lets face it imo stl is playing to good of ball to be +130 in this game, biggest worry is they had to use the quality ppl they have in the pen for fri game so ill only risk half a unit and see what happens....

kc +103.. 1 unit.....twinkies are a sinking ship at this point so ill take kc as a small dog....

min/kc u9.... .55 to .5

chc/arz o9... .55 to .5


gl everyone

[befus]

GL man. Big Cards fan also. Glad they are playing well. Had them last night think I will pass today. Do like the o7' in Philly.

[BigDan]

another nice win for my redbirds!!!!!!!!!!!

i will more than likely prove i am not a homer 2marro as the Cards gotta be one of the worst teams at closing out sweeps for some reason, think it has something to do with Larussa preaching "just win series" so after they accomplish that they lose their edge or some shit (hell if i know. just know that over the last several years our record when trying to sweep is not very good) so depending on the price there is a good chance i will be on atl even though the Birds are rolling....

[blackeyeshamus]

caught the redbirds @ +135.
great value, and a great win!
thanks for the heads up play.

[HoulihansTX]

[BigDan]

at risk of looking like a serious homer i gotta do it again...

stl +130. .5 to .65...westbrook has had his problems but his sinker looked much better last game and lets face it imo stl is playing to good of ball to be +130 in this game, biggest worry is they had to use the quality ppl they have in the pen for fri game so ill only risk half a unit and see what happens....

kc +103.. 1 unit.....twinkies are a sinking ship at this point so ill take kc as a small dog....

min/kc u9.... .55 to .5 how the fuk did kc go and score 11?????????

chc/arz o9... .55 to .5 just a bad bet but like i said im still caatching up on everything but the Cards

gl everyone

still 2-2 with a profit. ill do the math in morning in fukked up.....

[BigDan]

houli you always been a first class poster, im me sometime

[BigDan]

stl/atl game 3



lots of thoughts on this game... i know garcia will be solid but he hasnt been going deep into games and if he only makes it 6inn be worried about who Larussa throws out there....we damn sure dont have a great track record for sweeping teams (besides last year when we took 4 from atl in da lou), usually this be no brainer to tke braves but Cards bats are hot enough not sure i trust lowe.

gonna wait and hope ppl hit up the Cards and keep changing the price......

[befus]

stl/atl game 3



lots of thoughts on this game... i know garcia will be solid but he hasnt been going deep into games and if he only makes it 6inn be worried about who Larussa throws out there....we damn sure dont have a great track record for sweeping teams (besides last year when we took 4 from atl in da lou), usually this be no brainer to tke braves but Cards bats are hot enough not sure i trust lowe.

gonna wait and hope ppl hit up the Cards and keep changing the price......

Wary of this one too. If I had a gun to my head I'd take Bravos.

[BigDan]

3-2 +1.61 units......2-0 with Cards...

atl-108... .54 to .5

atl rl +195.. .25 to .48

stl/atl ov 7.5 -108 .54 to .5


gotta do it, in my gut i know we gonna see some bad bullpen play after Garcia goes 6 and gives up 3 runs...dont trust Lowe either but feel like he may be able to grind out enough to get a 6-4 type of win.....either way will still be up for the series but might as well take a little shot here.....

[Rixsaw]

I got the same plays on atl.
BOL

[BigDan]

kc-112 .56 to .5....maybe i have a total Show Me state bias, or maybe ive always liked to kick a fukkker when they down but to me the twinkies are a team that is gonna get kicked again and again for the time being....you know that team in trouble when im willing to take kc to finish off a sweep, just dont see things going well for the twinkies.......and once again win or lose only playing with half the kc win from yesterday.......

[BigDan]

3-2 +1.61 units......2-0 with Cards...

atl-108... .54 to .5

atl rl +195.. .25 to .48...........A LITTLE TO GREEDY HERE

stl/atl ov 7.5 -108 .54 to .5


gotta do it, in my gut i know we gonna see some bad bullpen play after Garcia goes 6 and gives up 3 runs...dont trust Lowe either but feel like he may be able to grind out enough to get a 6-4 type of win.....either way will still be up for the series but might as well take a little shot here.....

well my friends like ive said i know my team very well, 4-1 on the stl/atl series with the greedy rl the only play i lost...just knew we would see Franklin and the parts of their pen that sucks today.....

[BigDan]

kc-112 .56 to .5....maybe i have a total Show Me state bias, or maybe ive always liked to kick a fukkker when they down but to me the twinkies are a team that is gonna get kicked again and again for the time being....you know that team in trouble when im willing to take kc to finish off a sweep, just dont see things going well for the twinkies.......and once again win or lose only playing with half the kc win from yesterday.......

it felt like stealing fading minny today

[BigDan]

6-3 +2.86 units

[BigDan]

not sure about 2marros game as of yet, Loshe has been nothing short of fantastic (shocking to me) but that is a pretty steep price to pay against a team playing as well as fla, and ive neva been a big fan of laying much juice on teams 1st game back from a road trip....would lean Cards but may just pass, sure ill figure something out before gametime....

[BigDan]

stl rl +130 .5 to .65........still not thrilled about this as i could clearly see the case for taking fla with that line (not to mention ive neva been a fan of playing rl at home, but i refuse to lay -170 in this game), but Loshe has been nails and we will see the good pen 2marro so i like our chances of holding the marlins offense down, but beware our 1st game back after a road tip and no rest could be a problem.....

fla/stl u 8.5 -105 1.05 to 1......still hasnt heated up here in stl and the ball just isnt flying like it will later in the season, combine that with loshe getting it done and Volsted not only has looked solid recently but also shut stl down at the end of last season..just dont see a lot of runs in this one....

[BigDan]

oak -108 ....1.08 to 1

[BigDan]

stl rl +130 .5 to .65........still not thrilled about this as i could clearly see the case for taking fla with that line (not to mention ive neva been a fan of playing rl at home, but i refuse to lay -170 in this game), but Loshe has been nails and we will see the good pen 2marro so i like our chances of holding the marlins offense down, but beware our 1st game back after a road tip and no rest could be a problem.....

fla/stl u 8.5 -105 1.05 to 1......still hasnt heated up here in stl and the ball just isnt flying like it will later in the season, combine that with loshe getting it done and Volsted not only has looked solid recently but also shut stl down at the end of last season..just dont see a lot of runs in this one....

i see that the total has dropped to 8 while i was at work, id still play it but happy i got u 8.5....it is chilly and nasty here, gametime temp should be in the high40's with a little bit of rain(ball shouldnt be flying), only concern is i hate when a game gets delayed and we lose the starters, shouldnt happen though as i think the rain is only gonna be light......

[HoulihansTX]

What are the Cards going to do without Freese? That guy was carrying the offense.

[BigDan]

What are the Cards going to do without Freese? That guy was carrying the offense.

certainly one of the reasons i like the under tonight....on the bright side unlike last year when Freese went out at least now we dont really lose anything defensively with Descalso (cards d at third killed us last season when freese went out)....

overall i think we are much better equip to deal with it (we should be as Freese always gets hurt), but you are right he is huge for our offense as the guy can flat out hit and is clutch....at least it only for a month, long as Holliday and Berkman stay hot and Albert picks it up we will be ok......

[BigDan]

oak -108 ....1.08 to 1

WINNER

[BigDan]

7-3 +3.86 units