A little about myself - normally a system handicapper since the late 70 (before computers) but I suck at MLB - so I told a friend that I could "USE MY BRAIN, like the old days" and pick winners better then using a system - so for 162 games I'm betting on or against "my" team the Milwaukee Brewers. I obsess over the Brewers and watch their opponents three series ahead. I still use spreadsheets but I have no "system".
So Far 10-8 +4.47 units.
I'm not loving this game a lot and after going 2-1 +2.02 vs. the Phillies and having a very good read on those games (could have won that 3rd game at +180) this game is sort of fuzzy.
Houston - Nelson Figueroa LOVES facing Righthanders and most of the Brewers starting line-up and particularly the top of the order are all right handed so "point" for Houston. However if you look at Figueroa's games he's done well against the weak hitting teams and poorly against good heating teams. "point Milwaukee". One thing to note is that Figueroa can not hold a runner on AT ALL!
The Houston starters have a 4.62 run average and the bullpen has a 3.94 Run average so as a team they are giving up runs! The Houston top of the order is hitting .232 of late with 2.6 runs scored and 2.4 RBI so not a LOT of production out of those guys (more then the Phillies though).
Milwaukee on the other hand is 3.2 and 3.2 and is hitting .302 for the top 5 guys in the same period.
Gallardo - I was looking back to see if Yovani had ever had two worse back to back games in his career and yes - once 8/8/07 and 8/15/07. After those two outing's he came back pitching 6 of the next 7 games with Game Scores in the mid 60's.
But if you look at his bad games. His 1st BAD game he suffered Early Season Complete Game Syndrome*. Then in his 2nd bad game the Brewers had all sort of scheduling problems with rain outs and so forth and Yovani is never good at having his schedule messed up!
Gallardo will have a good game! The Brewer bullpen is FINALLY rested and has a 3.38 run average and the Brewer defense will either put on a clinic or be totally horrible with bone head mental mistakes - Houston is just atrocious defensibly.
So even though the Brewers are -200 I feel that taking the Astros at +175 is just tossing money away!
*Early Season Complete Game Syndrome = seems early in the season what a starter pitches a complete game he is gassed the very next game. So many warm up pitches, extra at bats, defense and so forth. He might not feel it but command and velocity and movement are just a little off and they come into the game overrated. I have not looked DEEPLY into this yet - just going on evidence I have seen so far - it's something I would love to put actual numbers on!
Brewers -200
So Far 10-8 +4.47 units.
I'm not loving this game a lot and after going 2-1 +2.02 vs. the Phillies and having a very good read on those games (could have won that 3rd game at +180) this game is sort of fuzzy.
Houston - Nelson Figueroa LOVES facing Righthanders and most of the Brewers starting line-up and particularly the top of the order are all right handed so "point" for Houston. However if you look at Figueroa's games he's done well against the weak hitting teams and poorly against good heating teams. "point Milwaukee". One thing to note is that Figueroa can not hold a runner on AT ALL!
The Houston starters have a 4.62 run average and the bullpen has a 3.94 Run average so as a team they are giving up runs! The Houston top of the order is hitting .232 of late with 2.6 runs scored and 2.4 RBI so not a LOT of production out of those guys (more then the Phillies though).
Milwaukee on the other hand is 3.2 and 3.2 and is hitting .302 for the top 5 guys in the same period.
Gallardo - I was looking back to see if Yovani had ever had two worse back to back games in his career and yes - once 8/8/07 and 8/15/07. After those two outing's he came back pitching 6 of the next 7 games with Game Scores in the mid 60's.
But if you look at his bad games. His 1st BAD game he suffered Early Season Complete Game Syndrome*. Then in his 2nd bad game the Brewers had all sort of scheduling problems with rain outs and so forth and Yovani is never good at having his schedule messed up!
Gallardo will have a good game! The Brewer bullpen is FINALLY rested and has a 3.38 run average and the Brewer defense will either put on a clinic or be totally horrible with bone head mental mistakes - Houston is just atrocious defensibly.
So even though the Brewers are -200 I feel that taking the Astros at +175 is just tossing money away!
*Early Season Complete Game Syndrome = seems early in the season what a starter pitches a complete game he is gassed the very next game. So many warm up pitches, extra at bats, defense and so forth. He might not feel it but command and velocity and movement are just a little off and they come into the game overrated. I have not looked DEEPLY into this yet - just going on evidence I have seen so far - it's something I would love to put actual numbers on!
Brewers -200
